Toto Japan Classic 2024 Tips: 200/1 pick one of five for Jamie

Following China’s Ruoning Yin recording her second victory in three starts in last week’s Maybank Championship in Malaysia, the LPGA completes its tour of East Asia in Japan this week, with the Toto Japan Classic at Seta Golf Club’s North Course.

Our star golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with his full Toto Japan Classic preview and tips, which range from 16/1 to a huge 200/1!

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Toto Japan Classic was first staged in 1973 and is an event co-sanctioned between the LPGA and JLPGA. It was previously played over 54 holes but switched to the more traditional 72 holes in 2022.

Annika Sorenstam is the most decorated players in the tournament’s history, winning an incredible five times in a row from 2001 – 2005 – an LPGA record.

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Mone Inami (-22); runners-up: Seon-woo Bae, Shiho Kuwaki (-21)
• 2022 – Winner: Gemma Dryburgh (-20); runner-up: Kana Nagai (-16)
• 2021 – Winner: Ayaka Furue (-16); runner-up: Mone Inami (-13)
• 2020 – Winner: Jiyai Shin (-19); runner-up: Yuka Saso (-16)
• 2019 – Winner: Ai Suzuki (-17); runner-up: Hyo Joo Kim (-14)

*  2021 and 2020 editions solely sanctioned by the JLPGA due to COVID

Mone Inami won her first LPGA-sanctioned title in last year’s Toto Japan Classic, earning herself a first stab at the premier women’s tour in the process. Unfortunately, due to her lack of form this year, she doesn’t return to defend this week.

THE COURSE

The event returns to Seta Golf Club’s North Course, which has hosted on 14 previous occasions, most recently in 2022, 2021, 2019 and 2018. The course was designed by renowned Japanese architect, Seiichi Inoue in 1978.

The original layout is re-routed for the event and this par 72 measures in at 6616 yards. It possesses 10x par 4s (350-411 yards), 4x par 5s (476-540 yards) and 4x par 3s (135-192 yards).

Seta Golf Club’s North Course is built on hilly, sloping terrain with elevation changes throughout, plenty of uneven lies and water in-play on five holes.

The densely tree-lined fairways are narrow and are protected by some tricky zoysia rough. Although, there is a lack of a strategic fairway bunkering.

The bentgrass greens are average-large and play as a slow 11-11.5 on the stimp. They’re tough to get a handle of, with most sloping from back-to-front, meaning it is imperative that players keep the ball below the hole on approach. In contrast to the fairways, the putting surfaces are heavily bunkered, with many of these large sand-traps sitting towards the front of the greens.

The scoring here is usually good and it’s easy to see why. Three of the four par 5s measure 500 yards or less and there are countless shorter par 4s that can be attacked with a strong drive and a wedge.

That being said, there is some severe weather schedule for this week, which could make this year’s edition of the Toto Japan Classic at Seta Golf Club one of the most challenging.

THE WEATHER

Rain is forecast to fall in each of the three days preceding the start of the event and will continue into the tournament, looking at its heaviest on Friday/Saturday. Whilst that will leave the players with a receptive course, they may not be able to take advantage of it, as some extreme wind is on the cards.

The opening round looks the most playable, with gusts of up to 25mph on show, but these could rise to 35mph by Friday. However, that is nothing compared to what awaits on Saturday, with gusts of 70mph predicted, which will almost certainly be unplayable. Though it dies to 40mph+ for Sunday it still represents a huge and persistent problem for this week’s competitors.

KEY STATS

• Scrambling/SG: Around-the-Greens
• SG: Putting (bentgrass)
• Greens-in-Regulation

If those winds do transpire, Seta Golf Club’s North Course will become less about the usual birdie making and more about survival.

Hitting greens will be at a premium and even those most reliable ball-strikers will record lower greens-in-regulation percentages than usual; therefore I’d want strong short game players onside. We should pay attention to the best scramblers in the field and those who have shown they have the ability to putt these sloping bentgrass surfaces.

Additionally, despite the likely lower accuracy numbers for all in the field, players who are able to find more greens will naturally be favoured.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Evian Championship (Evian Resort)

The tree-lined course at the Evian Resort is a hilly, sloping venue with narrow fairways, heavily bunkered bentgrass greens and elevation changes throughout. This makes it in ideal comp for this week’s challenge.

Arkansas Championship (Pinnacle Country Club)

Whilst the zoysia fairways at Pinnacle Country Club are more generous, this rolling, tree-lined course, with its frequent elevation changes and bentgrass greens, has enough in common with Seta Golf Club’s North Course to enable players to transfer form between the two setups.

Fir Hills Seri Pak Championship (Palos Verdes Golf Club)

Palos Verdes Golf Club is another course worth a look this week. It’s a dramatically hilly and sloping venue with plenty of narrow driving lines and heavily bunkered poa/bentgrass greens.

Founders Cup (Upper Montclair Country Club)

Finally, I think Upper Montclair Country Club can provide us with clues additional clues. It is a compact, tree-lined course with narrow fairways and well bunkered poa/bentgrass greens.

THE FIELD

This week’s 78-woman field is made up of 43 from the LPGA and 35 from the JLPGA, as determined from each tour’s season-long rankings.

It includes three of the world’s top 10, 11 of the top 25 and 22 of the top 50. Jin Young Ko is the top-ranked of these players at #6, with #8 and 2021 winner of this event, Ayaka Furue next on the list.

Furue is one five former winners in attendance, alongside Gemma Dryburgh (2022), Jiyai Shin (2020, 2010, 2008), Ai Suzuki (2019) and Mi Hyang Lee (2014).

The JLPGA contingent is led by Rio Takeda, who ranks first on the tour’s money list having recorded an incredible seven victories this season, with 12-time JLPGA winner Miyu Yamashita second in those same rankings and also in the field.

Toto Japan Classic Odds

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SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Haeran Ryu 17/2, Ayaka Furue 12/1, Miyu Yamashita 14/1, Akie Iwai 16/1, Mao Saigo 16/1, Jin Young Ko 18/1, Rio Takeda 18/1

This is a tough contest to decipher due to the two sets of form from two very capable groups of players. I’m going to meet in the middle for my first selection, with a player enjoying an excellent rookie season on the LPGA having had great success in her home country, and with the assets I’m searching for this looks like a perfect event for Mao Saigo to win her first LPGA-sanctioned tournament.

2.5 pts Mao Saigo each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 16/1 

Saigo earned her place on the LPGA after finishing 2^nd in last year’s Q-School and currently ranked 9^th in the Race to CME Globe – the LPGA’s season-long rankings – she’s shown she belongs at this level.

The six-time JLPGA winner has made 24 starts on the tour this season and recorded six top 10s. Runner-up finishes in the CPKC Women’s Open and three starts ago in the Buick LPGA Shanghai represent her best results, whilst after missing the cut in the first two majors of the year she made the last three, recording top 10s in the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship and Women’s Open.

She has an excellent all-round game, ranking 16^th tee-to-green and 48^th in putting. Her ranking of 3^rd in greens-in-regulation will be vital this week and as the 34^th-best scrambler, her game should hold up to this week’s testing conditions.

Saigo finished 3^rd here back in 2021 on the JLPGA. Finishes of 3^rd in the 2022 Evian Championship and 4^th in Arkansas just a few starts ago confirms her suitability to this type of course, and she can claim rewards for a promising season by taking the title this week.

1.5 pts Sakura Koiwai each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 33/1

Sakura Koiwai has a positive record here and in good winning form in 2024, the 10-time JLPGA winner can follow in the footsteps of Mone Inami and claim her first LPGA-sanctioned title in the Toto Japan Classic.

Koiwai had won at least once in each of the previous five seasons and made it six in a row on her fifth start of 2024 in the Yamaha Ladies Open. She maintained a good level of form following that, including finishing 9^th in the difficult US Women’s Open – displaying her ability to perform well when the going is tough – and then recorded her second victory of the year in the Earth Mondahmin Cup in June. She’s missed just one of her last fifteen cuts and has added five further top 10s since that most recent win.

She has been one of the JLPGA’s highest-ranking players in both scrambling and greens-in-regulation for several years now. These have again been areas in which she’s excelled in 2024, ranking 8^th in GIR and 18^th in scrambling.

Koiwai has played in each of the last four editions of this event here, finishing 8^th in 2018, 6^th in 2019, 10^th in 2021 and 14^th in 2022. This signifies a really encouraging book of form at the course and with those strengths of her game, she can put up another good effort in this week’s likely difficult conditions.

1 pt Gabriela Ruffels each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 70/1 

Gabriela Ruffels looked much improved last week following an uninspiring run of results. With some appealing comp form for this setup, this solid all-rounder can earn an LPGA breakthrough in Japan.

This is Ruffels’ rookie season on the LPGA after she led the Epson Tour’s money list in 2023, thanks largely to claiming three victories. She’s missed just four cuts in 21 starts this year and recorded three 3^rd-place finishes, two of which came in comp events mentioned above: the Fir Hills Seri Pak Championship and Founders Cup.

That being said, her form had suffered a bit of a dip entering last week, recording only one top 40 across her previous nine starts, though she improved with an 18^th-place finish in Malaysia.

She has hit the ball steadily this year but it’s her short game that has particularly impressed. Her putting has been the primary asset, ranking 26^th and at 30^th around-the-greens, she’ll be able to scramble for pars as well as anyone this week.

Ruffels makes her debut here, but those two aforementioned pieces of comp form should serve her well and help this American-born Aussie to perform at Seta Golf Club.

0.75 pts Yuna Nishimura each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 90/1

Yuna Nishimura has one of the strongest short games on tour, which has helped her to strong performances on each of her two most recent starts at this course. Her form has been a little sketchy of late, but this classy player is well worth a shot at the price on what could be a volatile week.

Nishimura started her second season on tour positively, making each of her first 11 cuts, which includes two top 10s and a best of 3^rd in the HSBC Women’s World Championship. She then missed seven of her next eight cuts, but stopped the rot when 12^th in the Arkansas Championship and she has got gradually better in East Asia on her last three starts, finishing 72^nd in China and 60^th in Korea, before a 39^th-place finish in Malaysia last week.

She has lost something in approach this season but has improved her already excellent short game, ranking 11^th in scrambling and 12^th on the greens. That putter has looked especially good on bentgrass, recording her two best displays of the season on the surface, ranking 2^nd in Arkansas and 3^rd in the Evian Championship.

Nishimura finished 15^th here in 2021 before going even better in 2022, finishing 4^th. A 3^rd-place finish in Arkansas last year matches her best effort on the LPGA and can help this six-time JLPGA winner to a maiden LPGA success in front of her home crowd.

0.5 pts Moriya Jutanugarn each way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 200/1

Lastly, I’m going to give Moriya Jutanugarn a shot at a huge price. She picked up her second solo LPGA win just a couple of months back in Portland and with her steady ball-striking and strong short game, she could be well suited to the demands of this week’s test.

Jutanugarn made a decent start to the season but had been going through a rough patch of form in the weeks building up to her win in the Portland Classic, although, she had halted that run with a 25^th-place finish in Canada the week prior.

She missed her next three cuts following that victory, but she’s looked solid if unspectacular in East Asia on her last three starts in lower scoring events, and I’m hoping she’ll be benefited by the more testing conditions on offer here.

The putter has been key to her better performances this year, ranking 21^st. She’s also hit plenty of greens, ranking 58^th in GIR and as a generally reliable scrambler, she ticks most of the boxes for this week’s exam.

Jutanugarn achieved her best finish of 36^th at this course on her latest visit in 2022. Having recorded finishes of 2^nd and 4^th in Arkansas, as well as 3^rd and 6^th in the Evian, her comp form is strong and should set her up for a bold effort at Seta Golf Club’s North Course.

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