The Open Championship Golf In-Play Betting Tips: The Claret jug beckons

We have just one round to go of the 153^rd Open Championship and having burst into a four-shot lead on Saturday, it feels as though world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler already has one hand on the Claret Jug.

The Open Championship Gold Odds

Golf Odds

Leaderboard after round three:

1^st – Scottie Scheffler (-14)

2^nd – Haotong Li (-10)

3^rd – Matt Fitzpatrick (-9)

T4 – Rory McIlroy (-8)

T4 – Chris Gotterup (-8)

T4 – Harris English (-8)

T4 – Tyrrell Hatton (-8)

8^th – Xander Schauffele (-7)

Scheffler started moving day with a one-shot lead and quadrupled that advantage after a smooth, bogey-free 67 – eagling the par-5 7^th and following with further birdies on the 8^th and 16^th holes. Everything felt typically effortless, scrambling for pars with ease on holes 11 and 14 from difficult positions, when it looked for all the world that bogeys were on the cards.

A brilliantly varied challenge at Royal Portrush has thrown everything at him this week, but he’s answered every question with aplomb. It’s going to take a surprisingly off day, or something special from one of his competitors, to stop this genius golfer from winning his first Claret Jug later today.

The exciting Haotong Li hung around admirably in round three with a two-under 69 and now gets the chance to go toe-to-toe with the world’s best player in the final round of a major. He’s hit the ball incredibly this week, ranking 1^st in ball-striking and greens-in-regulation, and had the putter behaved as it did in round one in the previous two rounds, he’d be considerably closer to Scottie.

Although he finished 3^rd in this event in 2017, and led the 2020 PGA Championship thru 36 holes, being in this position heading into the final round is a new experience. That being said, he’s been to the absolute depths of despair with his game as recently as 2023 and has little to lose here. He’s certainly a player capable of the spectacular and having once got the better of Rory McIlroy down the stretch in the 2018 Dubai Desert Classic, he isn’t afraid of tackling the top players.

Matt Fitzpatrick started Saturday just one behind Scheffler but after enduring a torrid time on the greens, he’s now slipped five off the pace. He is paired with home hero Rory McIlroy, who delighted his fans with a brilliant five-under 66 to move to within six. If anyone is likely to catch fire it is surely Rory, and if he can get it going early in his round today, the sheer noise may apply pressure to Scheffler – if he is capable of feeling such things.

Our next twosome is the American duo of Chris Gotterup and Harris English – who can both significantly improve their Ryder Cup positions with a strong finish. Meanwhile, rounding out our top eight is the ever-vocal Tyrrell Hatton, and one of the moves of moving day came from defending champion Xander Schauffele, who made two eagles in a round of 66 to fly up to 8^th place on the leaderboard.

Anything can happen in golf, and it would of course be folly to crown Scheffler as the champion before a ball is struck on Sunday. However, with calm, clear conditions forecast throughout the final round, it’s hard to see him coming back to the field, and it will likely take something extraordinary for the majority of these top-eight players and beyond to deny him the Claret Jug.

SELECTIONS

Many will feel they are playing for places due to Scheffler’s significant advantage, and we have several chances with a round to go. Xander Schauffele and Russell Henley both sit within them at present (8^th and 9^th respectively), but it’s Norwegian Kristoffer Reitan who can provide us with the most excitement in the final round, with the 225/1 poke sitting in 14^th place, just one stroke outside that all-important top-10.

With plenty of irons in the fire I’m happy to again leave the outright betting alone and have selected a couple of 2-balls to add to our interest today.

Dustin Johnson to beat Sungjae Im

Dustin Johnson has got better and better as this week has gone on. He hit it just about as well as anyone on Saturday and I think he’ll go low in today’s calm conditions, beating Sungjae Im in the process.

DJ began the week with a two-over 73 but improved by four shots on Friday, firing a 69. Further gains were made yesterday, as he carded a bogey-free 67, ranking 1^st in greens-in-regulation, 2^nd in approach, and 4^th in ball-striking. Although he couldn’t quite get it rolling on the greens, he putted well the first two days and if able return to that and combine it with yesterday’s ball-striking performance, he has a low one in him.

Sungjae shot consecutive rounds of 71 to begin his week, making just three birdies over the first 36 holes. He tripled his tally yesterday, making six birdies on his way to a 67, though whilst he was solid enough with his irons, it was around-the-greens that he excelled, ranking 1^st.

The Korean hasn’t taken to these greens as yet and is currently in the midst of his worst ever season on the PGA Tour, where his approach play has been dreadful. Johnson, meanwhile, has shown signs of life on LIV of late, arriving having hit his irons better than he has all season in his last two starts, and he looks the player to be on in this 2-ball.

Jesper Svensson to beat Thriston Lawrence

Jesper Svensson has played great from tee-to-green this week but struggled on the greens over the first two days. However, he looked to have found some improvements with the putter yesterday and if he can carry that over into round four, he should have the beating of Thriston Lawrence, who has relied heavily on the putter so far.

Svensson began with rounds of 71 and 72 but shot his best round of the week by three yesterday, with a 68. He was again sound from tee-to-green, ranking 16^th on Saturday and 14^th for the week overall. Meanwhile, after ranking outside the top 100 in putting in each of the first two rounds, he finally holed a few putts, ranking 25^th on the greens in round three.

He’s made 13 birdies this week, which is as many as the man currently sat in 2^nd, Haotong Li, and two better than Lawrence’s 11. Four of those came in a wild first round from the South African, accompanied by four bogeys and a double to post a 73. He has improved from there, with rounds of 70 and 68, but sitting outside the top 110 in ball-striking, it’s the putter that has engineered this – an area in which he ranks 11^th for the week.

Svensson has played the best golf of this duo this week and indeed, despite better performances in recent weeks from Lawrence, the Swede has looked more comfortable throughout his rookie season on the PGA Tour. He’s a strong driver who had found form with his irons prior to this week, and as a player very much capable of maintaining the upgraded putting performance of yesterday, he gets the nod in this 2-ball.

Golf Betting Tips with Betfred Insights.