The LPGA Tour continues with The Ascendant tournament and as usual, we have tasked our resident golf expert, Jamie Worsley to provide one of his usual excellent previews and four tips for this week.
The Ascendant LPGA Betting Tips
Before the LPGA heads off to East Asia for a quartet of limited-field events, starting with the Buick LPGA Shanghai next week, they first make a detour to Texas for The Ascendant LPGA at Old American Golf Club – the penultimate full-field event of the season.
Tournament Details
The Ascendant LPGA debuted in 2013 at Las Colinas Country Club, where it stayed for the first five renewals before moving to current host, Old American Golf Club in 2018.
Inbee Park won the inaugural edition and became the first – and as yet only – player to win the tournament twice when regaining the trophy in 2015; following on from Stacy Lewis’ record-break six-stroke success in 2014.
Park’s compatriot, Jenny Shin won the event in 2016 and has since been followed by a further two Korean winners: Sung-hyun Park in 2018 – who won a weather-shortened 36-hole edition – and Jin Young Ko in 2021.
Japan’s Haru Nomura won the final renewal to be staged at Las Colinas in 2017, in a mammoth six-hole playoff over Cristie Kerr after both players finished tied on a tournament high score of -3; Angela Stanford’s -7 winning score in 2020 is the toughest version since the 2018 course switch.
Cheyenne Knight won her first LPGA title here in 2019 in a then event record -18 winning score. However, she was matched by Charley Hull last year, who shot the same score to beat off Xiyu Lin by a stroke for her first LPGA win in six years. The English star returns to defend this week.
The Course
Old American Golf Club sits on the shores of Lewisville Lake in The Colony, Texas and was designed by the duo of Tripp Davis and 1997 Open Champion, Justin Leonard; opening for play in 2010.
It plays as a par 71, measuring 6517 and has nine par 4s (346-426 yards), five par 3s (156-177 yards) and four par 5s (499-555 yards). It can be attacked if conditions allow, as we’ve seen with those two -18 winning scores. Though due to the exposed nature of much of the course, any wind arriving from across the lake can cause havoc; this very much on show from the -7 winning score of Angela Stanford in 2020.
This is quite an interesting and creative course, with an open, links-like feel and only a smattering of trees in-play; requiring a reasonable amount of strategy to overcome. Most of the holes dogleg, some severely so and there are a number of blind shots.
Whilst the fairways are largely generous, they are well protected by large and plentiful naturally-formed bunkers, many of which are deep and penal.
The grainy bermudagrass greens are around average in size – maybe a little below – and pretty slow; this week playing at 10.5-11 on the stimpmeter. Having said that, these greens and their surrounds are the most challenging aspect of play at Old American GC.
They are predominantly elevated, with many long and narrow in shape, often at an angle to your position in the fairway. Abound by harsh slopes and run-offs, as well as more of that prevalent bunkering; they are both tough to hit and penal should you miss.
The greens themselves are difficult to putt on should you be lucky enough to hit them in regulation, with severe undulations and several greens on which you’ll be left with a double-breaker. It’s imperative to find the right sections of them and miss on the correct sides.
Despite the severity of the challenge on and around the green complexes, the course isn’t short on scoring chances if your ball-striking is on point. The par 5s should be reachable for most, whilst there is little in the way of particularly brutal-looking par 4s; the par 3s have some of the more unique greens but ultimately are short on too much danger.
The course does have an exciting finish, with the only two water holes coming on the 499-yard par 5 17th and 411-yard par 4 18th; both of which are protected up the left hand side, from fairway to green.
The Stats
Key Stats:
- SG: Putting (bermudagrass)
- SG: Around-the-Greens
- SG: Approach
- Greens-in-Regulation
- Par 5 Scoring
The intricacies on and around the greens have me reaching for strong short-game players this week. This is an opinion that was echoed by 2020 winner, Angela Stanford in her press conference, who said “If your short game is not on point you’re in trouble this week.”. Whilst we also have last year’s event providing us with further evidence of this necessity.
Each of last year’s top four finishers ranked inside the top 5 on the greens and winner, Charley Hull, ranked 7th around them; with runner-up, Xiyu Lin ranking 14th. Other past winners, such as Stanford herself, along with Cheyenne Knight in 2019 and Jin Young Ko in 2021 are additional players who possess quality in these areas.
The driver hasn’t proven absolutely vital here but the irons are a different matter. All of that top 4 from last year ranked top 25 in approach and top 17 in greens-in-regulation; an area that runner-up, Lin ranked 1st. Cheyenne Knight and Jin Young Ko are also strong approach player; whilst Ko in 2021 and Sung-hyun Park in 2018 were the respective 2nd and 8th ranked players for GIR in the year they won.
With wind likely to play a part this week, this need for a strength into the greens but also an ability on and around them should once again prove pivotal.
Correlating Events (Courses)
Arkansas Championship (Pinnacle CC)
Anybody who went well in last week’s Arkansas Championship should be able to carry that form over into this week. The course is a similar length, with greens that are closely matched in size and many gently doglegging, generous fairways, that are protected by bunkers and bermudagrass rough.
Sung-hyun Park has won at both courses; other former winners at Old American GC, Charley Hull and Jin Young Ko, have recorded top 10s.
So Yeon Ryu has finished 2nd and 7th here in two starts and has won at Pinnacle CC; Brittany Altomare has finished 2nd here and recorded two top 5s in Arkansas; Pornanong Phatlum has finished top 25 in every visit here to Old American and has a top 5 there.
LA Championship/LA Open 2018-2022 (Wilshire CC)
Though grass types may be different there are several similarities about the way Wilshire CC and Old American GC play. Both are abound with over 100 bunkers, have generous fairways and relatively small, angled greens, which are littered with run-off areas.
Jin Young Ko has recorded three top 5s there and 2019 The Ascendant winner, Cheyenne Knight has finished 6th.
So Yeon Ryu has two top 5s at Wilshire; Gaby Lopez and Emma Talley have top 5s at each course; Jeongeun Lee6 and Yealimi Noh have top 10s.
Shoprite Classic (Seaview GC – Bay Course)
I’ll finish with the Bay Course at Seaview GC; a reasonably exposed, linksy course, that has generous fairways, comparably sized greens and a substantial amount of penal bunkering.
Angela Stanford has won at both courses; Jin Young Ko has finished 2nd there and Celine Boutier – who has numerous top 10s here – has won at Seaview.
Jeongeun Lee6 has finished 2nd in the Shoprite; Gaby Lopez and Yealimi Noh have top 10s and Jaye Marie Green has a number of top 10s, to go with her runner-up finish here in 2019.
The Weather
There is forecast to be some heavy storms before the start of the event, which are set to continue into the opening round on Thursday. It looks clear from Friday onwards and relatively warm; with wind set to be a factor, blowing at a constant of around 10mph and gusting at up to 25mph over the final three rounds.
The Field
Celine Boutier is the highest ranked player in this week’s field at #5 in the world. She is joined by a further two players from inside the world’s top 10: #7 Hyo Joo Kim and #8 Charley Hull – this week’s defending champion.
Hull is one of five former champions in attendance, including 2019 and 2020 winners here at Old American GC, Cheyenne Knight and Angela Stanford.
Lexi Thompson recorded her first LPGA top 10 of the year last week and will be hoping to build on that here; whilst talented Korean, Hae Ran Ryu – last week’s first-time LPGA winner in Arkansas – makes her debut in Texas.
Selections
Hyo Joo Kim is at the top of the betting at 7/1, with Thailand’s Atthaya Thitikul next at 17/2. Kim has gone well on both visits, whilst Thitikul was 4th on her only try. However, neither are playing as well as they have at points this year and aren’t of interest at the prices.
The top of the market is very strong, with the likes of Charley Hull and major-winning Celine Boutier just behind that top two in the betting, but there is someone else just a little further down who catches my eye as the value of all of these market leaders, Ireland’s Leona Maguire.
2.5 pts Leona Maguire each way (1/4 – 5 places) – 18/1
It’s just a couple of weeks ago since Leona played another starring and important role in her second Solheim Cup, winning three of her five matches and earning a vital win against the sensation that is Rose Zhang in the Sunday singles.
She travelled straight from there to Arkansas last week, understandably struggling to come down from the high of that fabulous event and finishing 62nd. Though with her electric short game and encouraging debut effort of 25th here, she can make up for that in Texas this week.
Maguire has had a good year so far, winning her second LPGA trophy at the Meijer LPGA Classic back in June and missed just one cut in nineteen starts; making the cut in every major, with a best of 11th in the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship.
As you’d expect, short-game quality has been her key asset this season, as she ranks 4th on tour around-the-greens. Rock-solid ball-striking sees her rank 32nd in GIR and she’s been putting up positive numbers on the greens, ranking 40th; par 5 scoring, for which she ranks 16th, should also serve her well this week.
Maguire’s 25th-place finish here came in the toughest renewal to date at Old American in 2020 and with wind set to play a part again this week, her gritty character and sharp short game can see her improve on that result.
1.75 pts Lexi Thompson each way (1/4 – 5 places) – 28/1
Signs that Lexi Thompson could have a strong finish to 2023 continued in Arkansas last week and after finishing 10th on her debut here last year, she comes to an ideal place to extend that upwards trend this week.
Lexi finished 8th in Arkansas last week, opening with a 6-under 65 and closing with a 66; firing fifteen birdies over the three rounds and making just two bogeys. She gained just under five strokes in approach – her best iron display of the season – and also shone with the short game, ranking 14th ATG and 29th on them.
That was her best performance of the year on the LPGA and confirmed the promise she showed not only at the Solheim Cup but when 19th in the Kroger Queen City Championship on her previous LPGA start.
Thompson’s debut 10th here in 2022 saw her lead the field in greens hit and rank 2nd in scrambling, in a week where she shot under-par in every round. With a last LPGA win coming at the Shoprite Classic in 2019 correlating nicely, along with several top 10 efforts in Arkansas, she has a strong profile for this week’s challenge.
1.25 pts Yuna Nishimura each way (1/4 – 5 places) – 40/1
Japan’s Yuna Nishimura earned her LPGA card via the Q-Series last year. Though she hasn’t managed to transfer her impressive winning form in Japan in recent years to the LPGA just yet, she produced a best-of-the-year 3rd in Arkansas last week and has the game to go well again in Texas.
Nishimura was a highly rated amateur before turning pro in 2019, reaching a high of #34, with a runner-up finish in the prestigious Women’s Amateur Asia-Pacific Championship in 2018 a particular standout.
She took to the pro game pretty swiftly, winning a first JLPGA title in 2020 and went on to record a further five victories on that tour across 2021/2022.
Nishimura made a solid start to life on the LPGA, making nine of her first ten cuts, but failed to hit the heights she’d been doing in her home country in previous years. However, after a recent trip home, where she finished 3rd in the Ladies Tokai Classic, she returned to the states last week; recording her best finish of the year in Arkansas.
Her strengths lie in her approach play and on-the-greens, ranking top 40 in approach, GIR and putting this season. She particularly put that quality approach play to use last week in Arkansas, ranking 1st in approach and 2nd in GIR; 7th in scrambling would also serve her well here.
That piece of form bodes well for Nishimura’s hopes on her first start around Old American GC this week.
0.75 pts Chanattee Wannasaen each way (1/4 – 5 places) – 100/1
19-year-old Chanettee Wannasaen was a hugely impressive winner of the Portland Classic three starts ago, running out a four-stroke winner over Xiyu Lin on a score of -26. There were plenty of positives in her 48th-place finish in Arkansas last week and considering that recent winning form, she’s a tempting price.
Wannasaen turned pro in 2021 after a short but successful amateur career largely spent in her homeland.
She won a bunch of tournaments in Thailand after turning pro and transferred that to the LET (Ladies European Tour) Access Series in 2022, winning the Trust Golf Links – Ramsdale Hall event. Then travelling to the LPGA Q-Series at the end of the year and finishing 6th to lock up her place on the LPGA this year.
Wannasaen had a tough start to the year on the LPGA, missing seven straight cuts from the LA Open at the end of March to the Dana Open in July, but her form has seen major improvements since a 17th place finish on the Epson Tour at the start of August.
The Thai golfer followed that with a 2nd-place finish two starts later on that same tour, before returning to the LPGA the following week and claiming that impressive victory. A win that was engineered by the second-best approach performance of anybody on the LPGA this year.
Wannasaen showed her prowess in approach again last week in Arkansas, ranking 6th and also shone around-the-greens, ranking 3rd. Which has been her biggest asset this season, as she ranks 28th on tour. That combination would go a long a way to helping her claim a super-swift LPGA double this week.
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