The American Express 2026 Betting Tips: 275/1 shot one of six picks

The PGA Tour season got off to a flying start in Hawaii last week, with Chris Gotterup claiming his third victory in the Sony Open to open his account for the year.

Attention now shifts to La Quinta, California for The American Express, where world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler makes his seasonal bow, hoping to set the tone for another dominant campaign.

Our resident golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with six more value each-way picks this week, so let's check out his The American Express 2026 Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights...

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TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The American Express (also known as the Desert Classic) made its debut on the PGA Tour in 1960. Originally contested over five rounds, this multi-course pro-am event switched to a regular 72-hole format in 2012.

It takes place across three courses in La Quinta, California: PGA West – Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West – Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta Country Club. The players and their amateur partners play each venue once over the first 54 holes, before the cut-makers return for the final round at the Stadium Course on Sunday.

Arnold Palmer has won this tournament more than anyone else, claiming the trophy on five occasions (1960, 1962, 1968, 1971, and 1973). This is three more than the next best players, with Phil Mickelson (2002, 2004) and Jon Rahm (2018, 2023) among a nine-man list of two-time champions.

The event averages a winning score of -24.6 across the last 10 renewals and has required a score of -23 or better to win in the last seven.

Last five winners:

• 2025

Winner: Sepp Straka (-25)

Runner-up: Justin Thomas (-23)

• 2024

Winner: Nick Dunlap (-29)

Runner-up: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-28)

• 2023

Winner: Jon Rahm (-27)

Runner-up: Davis Thompson (-26)

• 2022

Winner: Hudson Swafford (-23)

Runner-up: Tom Hoge (-21)

• 2021

Winner: Si Woo Kim (-23)

Runner-up: Patrick Cantlay (-22)

Sepp Straka produced a fine weekend display to win the third of his four PGA Tour titles in La Quinta last year, converting his 54-hole lead to beat Justin Thomas by two shots. He returns to defend this week, looking to become just the second back-to-back winner in the championship's history, after Johnny Miller in 1975/76.

THE COURSES

• Original architect / Year opened:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): Pete Dye / 1986
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Jack Nicklaus / 1986
  • La Quinta Country Club: Lawrence Hughes / 1959
• Par / Yardage:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): Par 72 / 7210 yards
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Par 72 / 7147 yards
  • La Quinta Country Club: Par 72 / 7060 yards
• Hole breakdown:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): 4x par 3s (165-227 yards), 10x par 4s (346-471 yards), 4x par 5s (535-600 yards)
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): 4x par 3s (165-209 yards), 10x par 4s (364-462 yards), 4x par 5s (527-572 yards)
  • La Quinta Country Club: 4x par 3s (168-206 yards), 10x par 4s (382-469 yards), 4x par 5s (516-547 yards)
• Course style:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): Generally open and heavily bunkered desert course (renovation completed in 2024), with lots of water in play
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Open and heavily bunkered desert course (renovated in 2025), easier than the Stadium Course
  • La Quinta Country Club: Traditional and densely tree-lined parkland that is lacking severe punishment
• Fairways:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): Generous, strategically bunkered, lined by waste areas, with rough cut low
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Wide, lined by waste areas, and offering little trouble
  • La Quinta Country Club: Narrow, but not especially penal should the players stray from the short grass
• Greens:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): Large (averaging 7000 sq. ft.), undulating and elevated surfaces overseeded with poa trivialis
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Small-to-average (averaging 5500 sq. ft.) surfaces overseeded with poa trivialis
  • La Quinta Country Club: Small (averaging 4773 sq. ft.) surfaces overseeded with a poa trivialis/ryegrass mix
• Defences:
  • PGA West (Stadium Course): Water (in play on eight holes), 90+ bunkers
  • PGA West (Nicklaus Tournament Course): Water (in play on six holes), 90+ bunkers
  • La Quinta Country Club: Some tight corridors, water (in play on seven holes), 82 bunkers

With generous setups driven by the pro-am format, this test always results in a birdie-fest, with water (in play on 21 holes) the only real obstacle unless the weather intervenes.

THE WEATHER

It's predicted to be bright and warm throughout the week in La Quinta, with temperatures hitting 23°C each day. Combined with having to contend with little more than a 5mph breeze, expect another extremely low-scoring edition of The AmEx.

KEY STATS

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) / Proximity from 125-175 yards

Figuring out how to score heavily is vital to contend in this event, and the irons have proven to be the main asset in doing this over the years. It's especially important to excel with the wedges and short irons, with approaches between 125-175 yards prominent.

Unfortunately, strokes-gained data is only recorded at the Stadium Course, but with two rounds played there these numbers can still help us to find this week's winner.

• 2025
  • Sepp Straka (Winner): 17^th in SG: Approach / 12^th in GIR
  • Jason Day (3^rd): 7^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
• 2023
  • Jon Rahm (Winner): 7^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Chris Kirk (3^rd): 4^th in SG: Approach / 5^th in GIR
  • Robby Shelton (6^th): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 9^th in GIR
• 2022
  • Hudson Swafford (Winner): 4^th in SG: Approach
  • Brian Harman (3^rd): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 10^th in GIR
  • Lee Hodges (3^rd): 9^th in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR
• 2021
  • Si Woo Kim (Winner): 2^nd in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Patrick Cantlay (2^nd): 14^th in SG: Approach / 8^th in GIR
  • Cam Davis (3^rd): 5^th in SG: Approach
  • Tony Finau (4^th): 7^th in SG: Approach / 4^th in GIR
• 2020
  • Andrew Landry (Winner): 9^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Abraham Ancer (2^nd): 12^th in SG: Approach / 8^th in GIR
  • Sepp Straka (4^th): 2^nd in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR

SG: Putting (poa trivialis overseed)

If you can't dial in the iron play then a hot week on the greens is another proven route for success in La Quinta.

• 2025
  • Sepp Straka (Winner): 8^th in SG: Putting
  • Justin Thomas (2^nd): 14^th
  • Justin Lower (3^rd): 6^th
• 2022
  • Hudson Swafford (Winner): 2^nd
  • Lanto Griffin (3^rd): 7^th
  • Brian Harman (3^rd) 9^th
• 2021
  • Si Woo Kim (Winner): 8^th
  • Patrick Cantlay (2^nd): 3^rd
  • Cam Davis (3^rd): 4^th
• 2020
  • Andrew Landry (Winner): 6^th
  • Abraham Ancer (2^nd): 2^nd

Birdie or Better %

To finish, you could keep it ultra-simple and lean on those players who rank highest in birdie-or-better %.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Travelers Championship (TPC River Highlands)

We have several Pete Dye designs to call on for clues and none of them appeal more than TPC River Highlands. Ranking closely to this week's challenge in ball-striking difficulty, the course frequently yields low scores and requires a top-class wedge game, with approaches between 125-175 yards commonplace.

Notable correlating form:

• Justin Thomas: AmEx (2^nd, 3^rd) / Travelers (3^rd, 5^th)
• Tom Hoge: AmEx (2^nd) / Travelers (3^rd)
• Patrick Cantlay: AmEx (2^nd) / Travelers (4^th, 5^th)
• Abraham Ancer: AmEx (2^nd, 5^th) / Travelers (4^th, 8^th)
• Brian Harman: AmEx (3^rd, 3^rd) / Travelers (2^nd, 3^rd)
• Charley Hoffman: AmEx (5^th) / Travelers (2^nd, 3^rd)
• Michael Thompson: AmEx (5^th, 9^th) / Travelers (4^th)
• T. Poston: AmEx (6^th, 7^th) / Travelers (2^nd)

THE PLAYERS Championship (TPC Sawgrass)

Some aesthetics at TPC Sawgrass are mirrored at this week's main course and it also plays similarly. Both have a gettable par 5, a par 3 with an island green, and a challenging par 4 guarded by water to finish. In addition, they rank closely in driving difficulty and use a poa trivialis overseed on the greens.

Notable correlating form:

• Si Woo Kim: AmEx (1^st) / PLAYERS (1^st)
• Jason Dufner: AmEx (1^st) / PLAYERS (5^th, 6^th)
• Justin Thomas: AmEx (2^nd, 3^rd) / PLAYERS (1^st)
• Jason Day: AmEx (2^nd) / PLAYERS (1^st)
• David Lingmerth: AmEx (2^nd) / PLAYERS (2^nd)
• Tom Hoge: AmEx (2^nd) / PLAYERS (3^rd)
• Brian Harman: AmEx (3^rd, 3^rd) / PLAYERS (2^nd, 3^rd)
• Cam Davis: AmEx (3^rd) / PLAYERS (6^th)
• Talor Gooch: AmEx (4^th) / PLAYERS (5^th)

Shriners Open (TPC Summerlin)

TPC Summerlin is host to another birdie-fest based in the desert, where quality wedge play is key. It has a largely trouble-free test off the tee, whilst water contributes to an exciting risk/reward finish.

Notable correlating form:

• Si Woo Kim: AmEx (1^st) / Shriners (8^th, 8^th)
• Patrick Cantlay: AmEx (2^nd) / Shriners (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd)
• Adam Hadwin: AmEx (2^nd, 2^nd, 3^rd) / Shriners (2^nd, 4^th)
• Abraham Ancer: AmEx (2^nd, 5^th) / Shriners (4^th, 4^th)
• Tom Hoge: AmEx (2^nd) / Shriners (4^th, 7^th)
• Davis Thompson: AmEx (2^nd) / Shriners (5^th)
• Lanto Griffin: AmEx (3^rd) / Shriners (6^th)
• T. Poston: AmEx (6^th, 7^th) / Shriners (1^st, 3^rd, 4^th)
• Matti Schmid: AmEx (6^th) / Shriners (3^rd)
• Michael Kim: AmEx (6^th) / Shriners (5^th)

Sanderson Farms Championship (Country Club of Jackson)

Despite being a tree-lined course with considerably narrower fairways, plenty of links have developed between the Country Club of Jackson and this week's primary host. This is predominantly due to the lack of penalty for errant ball-striking around the two layouts.

Notable correlating form:

• Sepp Straka: AmEx (1^st, 4^th) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)
• Andrew Landry: AmEx (1^st, 2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (4^th)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout: AmEx (2^nd) / Sanderson Farms (6^th)
• Kevin Yu: AmEx (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)
• Chris Kirk: AmEx (3^rd) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)
• Bud Cauley: AmEx (3^rd, 4^th) / Sanderson Farms (5^th)
• Dominic Bozzelli: AmEx (5^th, 5^th) / Sanderson Farms (6^th)
• Sam Burns: AmEx (6^th, 6^th) / Sanderson Farms (1^st)
• T. Poston: AmEx (6^th, 7^th) / Sanderson Farms (3^rd)
• Ben Griffin: AmEx (7^th, 9^th) / Sanderson Farms (2^nd)

Rocket Classic (Detroit Golf Club)

Averaging a winning score of -22, the Rocket Classic at Detroit Golf Club could prove a helpful guide in California. It ranks closely to The AmEx in tee-to-green difficulty, prompts the players to hit plenty of wedge shots, and lacks punishment missing the fairways and greens.

Notable correlating form:

• Nick Dunlap: AmEx (1^st) / Rocket Classic (10^th)
• Adam Hadwin: AmEx (2^nd, 2^nd, 3^rd) / Rocket Classic (2^nd, 4^th)
• Davis Thompson: AmEx (2^nd) / Rocket Classic (2^nd)
• Patrick Cantlay: AmEx (2^nd) / Rocket Classic (2^nd)
• Cam Davis: AmEx (3^rd) / Rocket Classic (1^st, 1^st)
• Justin Lower: AmEx (3^rd) / Rocket Classic (8^th)
• Erik Van Rooyen: AmEx (6^th) / Rocket Classic (6^th)
• Max Greyserman: AmEx (7^th) / Rocket Classic (2^nd)
• Taylor Moore: AmEx (7^th) / Rocket Classic (4^th, 6^th)

CJ CUP Byron Nelson (TPC Craig Ranch)

Last up is TPC Craig Ranch – home to one of the lowest-scoring events around. Its driving accuracy, GIR and scrambling percentages are among the highest on the PGA Tour, resulting in the CJ CUP Byron Nelson averaging a winning score of -25.6 in the five renewals staged there.

Notable correlating form:

• Si Woo Kim: AmEx (1^st) / Byron Nelson (2^nd)
• Jason Day: AmEx (2^nd) / Byron Nelson (1^st)
• Sam Burns: AmEx (6^th, 6^th) / Byron Nelson (2^nd, 5^th)
• Erik Van Rooyen: AmEx (6^th) / Byron Nelson (2^nd)

THE FIELD

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will make his sixth start in The AmEx this week. He is joined by a further four of the top 10: Russell Henley (No. 5), Robert MacIntyre (No. 6), Ben Griffin (No. 8) and Justin Rose (No. 10).

Sepp Straka is the reigning champion and one of eight former winners in attendance, alongside Nick Dunlap (2024), Si Woo Kim (2021), Andrew Landry (2020), Adam Long (2019), Jason Dufner (2016), Jhonattan Vegas (2011), and Charley Hoffman (2007).

Will Zalatoris makes his first start on U.S. soil since the 2025 PGA Championship last May after undergoing back surgery. Meanwhile, in a deep field that includes 27 of the world's top 50, we have a host of big names making their 2026 debut, including Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay and Harris English.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders: Scottie Scheffler 11/4, Ben Griffin 18/1, Sam Burns 20/1, Ludvig Aberg 20/1, Patrick Cantlay 22/1, Russell Henley 22/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1, Robert MacIntyre 25/1

1.5 pts Si Woo Kim each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 33/1

Si Woo Kim ended 2025 in fine form and after an 11^th-place finish in the Sony Open, where he hit the ball better than anyone, he shows no signs of letting up. As a former winner of this event, he knows how to get it done in La Quinta, making him a standout candidate to take down a potentially undercooked Scottie Scheffler this week.

Si Woo signed off last year with top-25s in each of his final seven appearances. This included three top-five finishes of 5^th in the BMW PGA Championship, 4^th in the RSM Classic, and 3^rd in the Australian Open.

Returning to action at Waialae Country Club, he fired four under-par rounds to finish 11^th and was superb from tee-to-green, ranking 1^st. He also led the field in SG: Ball-striking, and GIR, and was 3^rd in SG: Approach.

That level of performance was reminiscent of the quality he displayed in 2025, ranking 5^th on the PGA Tour from tee-to-green season-long. Although the putter was again the obstacle, he can turn that around in a tournament where he's gained strokes on the greens in six out of eight starts.

His comfort on these surfaces helped Kim to a victory here in 2021. In fact, he's only failed to make the final day in one of those eight visits, recording four additional top-25s. Pete Dye form is also on offer, courtesy of his 2017 PLAYERS Championship win, and having finished 2^nd in the 2023 CJ CUP Byron Nelson, this is clearly a test for which he stacks up well.

1.25 pts Michael Thorbjornsen each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 40/1

After enduring a difficult start to his rookie season, Michael Thorbjornsen barely put a foot wrong from April onwards. He’s one of the most prolific scorers on tour (ranking 8^th in birdie-or-better %), and as a superb ball-striker who had the putter firing towards the end of 2025, he can start what I expect to be a big year with a bang in California.

Thorbjornsen missed six of his first nine cuts last year and produced zero top-30 finishes. However, he only missed one of his following 16 thereafter and frequently threatened the top of the leaderboard, finishing 2^nd in the Corales Puntacana Championship, 3^rd in the Baycurrent Classic, 4^th in the Rocket Classic, and 7^th in the season-ending RSM Classic.

Nobody hit a higher percentage of greens last season, and he developed into one of the strongest drivers on tour, ranking 7^th. The putter was a concern at the start of the year, but he found his groove on the greens as the campaign progressed, gaining strokes on six of his final 10 starts.

Thorbjornsen attended Stanford University where he became one of the best amateurs in the world, reaching No. 2 in the rankings. That familiarity with the state didn’t aid him here last year as he missed the cut, but he did sit 14^th at the halfway point before suffering a three-over 75 at the Stadium Course in round three.

That offers promise of an upgraded performance this time, as does his improved form. Combined with eye-catching correlating results of 4^th in the Travelers Championship and 4^th in the Rocket Classic, the case for a strong showing is an easy one to make.

1 pt Pierceson Coody each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

Pierceson Coody is another highly-talented youngster looking to make a splash on his full-time return to the PGA Tour in 2026. He finished with a flourish at the Sony Open to hit the top 20, and ranking as one of the heaviest scorers on tour in 2025, this looks a great spot for him to make his mark.

Coody spent his time going back and forth between the PGA Tour and Korn Ferry Tour last year, impressing wherever he teed it up.

Among his 16 starts on the PGA Tour he missed just four cuts and claimed six top-25s, including bests of 3^rd in the Bank of Utah Championship and 3M Open. Meanwhile, he was even more effective down in grade, posting seven top-10s in 15 appearances. He particularly stood out when 2^nd in the Astara Golf Championship and BMW Charity Pro-Am – each of which are similarly low-scoring multi-course events.

The former No. 1 amateur was a touch slow to get going last week but flew home with a six-under 64 to finish 13^th. His driving stood out there, ranking 14^th – a stat that he topped on the PGA Tour across his limited outings in 2025.

Coody also ranked 4^th in birdie-or-better % last year, which should certainly serve him well in this type of test. That didn’t necessarily show on his debut here in 2024 as he missed the cut, though he was on an extremely poor run of form back then. With his game now in a much better place, expect a far better performance.

1 pt Kevin Yu each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 60/1

Despite finishing with two missed cuts, 2025 was a positive year for Kevin Yu, and I’m keen to have him on side this week. Winning his solo PGA Tour title after an eight-week break, he’s a player who goes well fresh, and having finished 3^rd in this event in 2024, we know this high-class ball-striker has the game to contend.

Yu racked up 11 top-25 finishes last season, going closest when 3^rd in the Canadian Open and 4^th in the Myrtle Beach Classic. He started the FedExCup Fall with promise, recording top-20s at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Baycurrent Classic and Bank of Utah Championship, before missing cuts in Mexico and Bermuda.

He excels with the driver, ranking 6^th and displaying a fine balance of power and accuracy. The irons were also strong throughout much of 2025, ranking 14^th in GIR and 42^nd in SG: Approach, and he’s especially sound with the wedges, ranking 39^th from 150-175 yards and 44^th from 125-150.

All that being said, it’s the putter that really gave me cause for encouragement. Once his major weakness, he gained strokes with the club in 10 of his last 13 recorded starts, resulting in him ranking 26^th in SG: Putting across the last seven months. In turn, this helped him increase the birdie rate, as he ranked 13^th in birdie-or-better %.

I’m hoping that will continue here, as Yu relied almost entirely on a supreme tee-to-green performance to finish 3^rd in La Quinta two years ago. He won his first PGA Tour trophy later that year in the correlating Sanderson Farms Championship and belying an eight-week absence to do so, don’t be surprised if he gets right back into the swing of things this week.

1 pt Matt McCarty each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 100/1

Matt McCarty was thriving late last year and although he finished down in 55^th position in Hawaii, positives weren’t difficult to find on the return to action. This is also true of his missed cut in The AmEx in 2025, and as a fine putter who makes plenty of birdies, his price holds huge appeal.

McCarty failed to fire in the opening weeks of the previous season but found form in March and never looked back. He hit the top 25 on 11 occasions across his last 20 appearances, hitting the top five when 4^th in the Canadian Open and 3^rd in defence of his Bank of Utah Championship title; he then ended the year by finishing 8^th in the Aussie Open.

The trip to Hawaii was underwhelming, but he shouldn’t be taken lightly here. He hit the ball strongly, ranking 11^th in GIR, 13^th in driving accuracy, and 18^th with the driver, but he just couldn’t get a handle on the greens, ranking 56^th. This is the area in which he typically thrives, ranking 17^th in 2025, and I expect him to immediately bounce back in California.

McCarty missed the cut in this tournament on debut, but he still managed three under-par rounds and as mentioned, was in no kind of form. He did go on to record top-20s in THE PLAYERS Championship, CJ CUP Byron Nelson, and Rocket Classic on first attempt in the following months – suggesting these demands suit his game.

0.75 pts S.H. Kim each-way (1/5 - 8 places) @ 275/1

Resuming his PGA Tour career with a 13^th-place finish at the Sony Open, Korea’s S.H. Kim is my final selection of the week. His attacking and aggressive nature makes him ideal for this challenge, one in which he can finally contend after getting the driver under control in 2025.

Kim was the form player on the Korn Ferry Tour at the beginning of last year, finishing 2^nd in The Bahamas and Argentina before going one better at the AdventHealth Championship in May. He collected another 11 top-25 finishes following that success, including ending the campaign with four straight top-20s in Asia.

He made a blistering start to the Sony Open, shooting a seven-under 63 to sit 3^rd after round one. The going was a little tougher from there, but he played solidly enough to finish 13^th.

The putter did a lot of the hard work, though he did also rank 28^th in GIR and should appreciate the more open and generous-driving courses on offer in California. He did drive the ball straighter than ever last year, ranking 15^th on the Korn Ferry Tour and also 5^th in birdie average, his current skillset fits these layouts.

Kim has shown glimmers of hope across his two missed cuts here, producing five under-par rounds without ever really catching fire. He does typically excel in birdie-fests, reaching 20-under-par to finish 4^th in both the 2023 Shriners Open and 2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson. If able to build on last week and control the driver as he did in 2025, I expect him to threaten the top of the leaderboard at a substantial price.

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