Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Betting Tips: Morikawa to win again?

After Nico Echavarria capitalised on Shane Lowry’s late collapse to claim his third PGA Tour victory at PGA National in the Cognizant Classic, the Florida swing rolls on to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational – our third Signature Event of the season.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with five more each-way picks this week including a recent winner on tour, so let's check out his Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Betting Tips here at Betfred Insights...

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

*You can bet on the tournament and check out the latest Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds over on betfred.com

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

The Arnold Palmer Invitational (initially the Florida Citrus Open) was first held in 1966. It has been played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill since 1979, officially adopting the great man's name in 2007.

Tiger Woods is the most successful player in the tournament's history, winning his first of eight trophies at Bay Hill in 2000. He retained it for the following three years – including hammering the field by 11 in 2003 – before recording back-to-back wins in 2008/2009 and 2012/2013.

Arnold Palmer himself won this title back in 1971, whilst other star names such as Lee Trevino (1975), Payne Stewart (1987), and Rory McIlroy (2018) have also etched their name onto this trophy.

Last five winners:

• 2025

Winner: Russell Henley (-11)

Runner-up: Collin Morikawa (-10)

• 2024

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-15)

Runner-up: Wyndham Clark (-10)

• 2023

Winner: Kurt Kitayama (-9)

Runners-up: Harris English, Rory McIlroy (-8)

• 2022

Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-5)

Runners-up: Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland (-4)

• 2021

Winner: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)

Runner-up: Lee Westwood (-10)

Russell Henley overcame 54-hole leader Collin Morikawa to secure the biggest victory of his career at Bay Hill in 2025, memorably chipping in for eagle on the 16^th hole. He returns to defend this week.

THE COURSE

Bay Hill Golf Club & Lodge

• Original architect / Year opened: Dick Wilson / 1961
• Latest renovation: Arnold Palmer has performed several renovations here, the most extensive of which came in 2009 – the current layout is now widely regarded to be his design
• Par / Yardage: Par 72 / 7466 yards
• Hole breakdown:
  • 4x par 3s (199-231 yards)
  • 10x par 4s (390-480 yards)
  • 4x par 5s (511-590 yards)
• Course style: Demanding, flat, and loosely tree-lined parkland course. Requires strategy to overcome
• Fairways:
  • Narrow-to-average width bermudagrass fairways overseeded with ryegrass
  • Mostly doglegged and strategically bunkered, which tightens the landing areas
  • Lush three-inch-thick ryegrass rough provides added protection
• Greens:
  • Large (7,500 sq. ft) and fast bermudagrass greens
  • Despite their size, these elevated surfaces rank as the fourth-toughest to hit on the PGA Tour
  • With many multi-tiered and some severely sloped, getting it close is tricky and subtle breaks can be difficult to read
  • They are guarded by abundant bunkering, whilst the majority are also surrounded by rough
• Defences:
  • Water is in play on nine holes, including each of the final three
  • Interesting routing forces players to hit shots into ever-changing wind directions
  • Rough and heavy bunkering makes for a penal ball-striking test
• Average winning score: -11.3 (last 10 editions)

Bay Hill is one of the toughest non-major courses on the PGA Tour, where players need to take advantage of the few birdie chances that come their way, especially on the par 5s.

Water plays a pivotal role on an exciting but risk-laden finish, which includes a gettable par 5, a long par 3, and a demanding closing par 4. It's here where the tournament will be won and lost on Sunday, as those contenders able to show patience under pressure separate themselves from the rest.

THE WEATHER

The field is in for largely bright and warm conditions in Florida, with temperatures of around 30°C each day and just a little light rain forecast for the weekend. In addition, a gentle 7-9mph breeze shouldn't cause too many problems, meaning it'll be left to the course itself to provide the difficulty.

KEY STATS

SG: Approach / Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) / Proximity from 175 yards+

A strong all-round game is a necessity when contending at Bay Hill, but in this week's expected conditions it's the irons that look most important. I'm particularly keen on players who excel with the mid-to-long irons, with around 50% of approaches falling into the 175-yards+ range.

• 2025
  • Russell Henley (Winner): 2^nd in GIR
  • Collin Morikawa (2^nd): 5^th in SG: Approach / 7^th in GIR
  • Corey Conners (3^rd): 15^th in SG: Approach / 11^th in GIR
  • Michael Kim (4^th): 10^th in SG: Approach / 11^th in GIR
• 2024
  • Scottie Scheffler (Winner): 12^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Wyndham Clark (2^nd): 14^th in SG: Approach / 6^th in GIR
  • Shane Lowry (3^rd): 7^th in SG: Approach / 6^th in GIR
• 2023
  • Kurt Kitayama (Winner): 16^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
• 2022
  • Scottie Scheffler (Winner): 1^st in SG: Approach / 12^th in GIR
  • Billy Horschel (2^nd): 5^th in SG: Approach / 12^th in GIR
  • Viktor Hovland (2^nd): 9^th in SG: Approach
• 2021
  • Bryson DeChambeau (Winner): 9^th in SG: Approach / 2^nd in GIR
  • Lee Westwood (2^nd): 3^rd in SG: Approach / 1^st in GIR
  • Corey Conners (3^rd): 1^st in SG: Approach / 8^th in GIR
  • Jordan Spieth (4^th): 5^th in SG: Approach

SG: Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT) and/or Driving Accuracy

With well-protected fairways that require players to position the ball smartly in order to attack the greens, and several risk/reward opportunities tempting aggressive lines, it's no surprise to see the driver play a vital role in deciding the winner of this event.

• 2025
  • Russell Henley (Winner): 18^th in SG: OTT
  • Collin Morikawa (2^nd): 3^rd in SG: OTT / 1^st in driving accuracy
  • Michael Kim (4^th): 10^th in SG: OTT
• 2024
  • Scottie Scheffler (Winner): 1^st in SG: OTT
  • Wyndham Clark (2^nd): 4^th in SG: OTT
  • Shane Lowry (3^rd): 9^th in SG: OTT / 3^rd in driving accuracy
  • Will Zalatoris (4^th): 3^rd in SG: OTT / 1^st in driving accuracy
• 2023
  • Kurt Kitayama (Winner): 1^st in driving accuracy
  • Rory McIlroy (2^nd): 12^th in SG: OTT
  • Harris English (2^nd): 4^th in driving accuracy
  • Patrick Cantlay (4^th): 3^rd in SG: OTT / 10^th in driving accuracy
  • Scottie Scheffler (4^th): 5^th in SG: OTT
  • Tyrrell Hatton (4^th): 7^th in SG: OTT / 3^rd in driving accuracy
• 2022
  • Viktor Hovland (2^nd): 3^rd in SG: OTT / 4^th in driving accuracy
• 2021
  • Bryson DeChambeau (Winner): 1^st in SG: OTT
  • Lee Westwood (2^nd): 9^th in SG: OTT
  • Corey Conners (3^rd): 7^th in driving accuracy

SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

These large, fast greens possess all manner of subtle breaks and can be hard to get to grips with. Therefore, anybody with form on similar bermudagrass surfaces are of interest.

• 2025
  • Russell Henley (Winner): 10^th in SG: Putting
  • Corey Conners (3^rd): 13^th in SG: Putting
• 2024
  • Scottie Scheffler (Winner): 5^th in SG: Putting
  • Wyndham Clark (2^nd): 4^th in SG: Putting
  • Russell Henley (4^th): 2^nd in SG: Putting
• 2023
  • Kurt Kitayama (Winner): 2^nd in SG: Putting
  • Harris English (2^nd): 1^st in SG: Putting
• 2022
  • Scottie Scheffler (Winner): 17^th in SG: Putting
  • Tyrrell Hatton (2^nd): 2^nd in SG: Putting
  • Billy Horschel (2^nd): 14^th in SG: Putting
• 2021
  • Corey Conners (3^rd): 13^th in SG: Putting
  • Andrew Putnam (4^th): 5^th in SG: Putting

Par 5 Scoring

Lastly, the par 5s are the simplest holes at Bay Hill and with so much difficulty awaiting elsewhere, it will be hard to contend if players don't make the most of these scoring chances.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village)

Muirfield Village not only had the largest collection of comp form, but it's also the course that compares closest to Bay Hill in all-round difficulty. It's especially well matched in approach, possessing similar GIR percentages and heavily favouring those who excel with the mid-to-long irons.

Notable correlating form:

• Bryson DeChambeau: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Memorial (1^st)
• Marc Leishman: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Memorial (5^th, 5^th)
• Russell Henley: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 4^th) / Memorial (5^th, 6^th)
• Billy Horschel: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (1^st)
• Viktor Hovland: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (1^st)
• Justin Rose: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 3^rd, 3^rd) / Memorial (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd)
• Collin Morikawa: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Workday / Memorial (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd)
• Kevin Chappell: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (2^nd)
• Kevin Na: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 4^th) / Memorial (2^nd)
• Matt Fitzpatrick: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (3^rd, 5^th)
• Patrick Cantlay: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Memorial (1^st, 1^st)
• Ryan Moore: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Memorial (2^nd, 5^th)
• Jordan Spieth: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 4^th) / Memorial (3^rd, 5^th)
• Will Zalatoris: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Memorial (5^th)
• Chris Kirk: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th, 8^th) / Memorial (4^th)
• Matt Wallace: Arnold Palmer Invitational (6^th) / Memorial (4^th)
• Byeong Hun An: Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 8^th) / Memorial (2^nd)

Truist Championship (Quail Hollow Club)

Quail Hollow is another challenging championship course that tests every club through the bag. The ball-striking difficulties are akin to what we see at Bay Hill, whilst approaches from 175 yards+ into the large, bermudagrass-based greens account for well over 50%.

Notable correlating form:

• Jason Day: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st) / Truist (1^st)
• Francesco Molinari: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st) / Truist (2^nd)
• Tyrrell Hatton: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Truist (3^rd)
• Wyndham Clark: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Truist (1^st)
• Viktor Hovland: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Truist (3^rd)
• Harris English: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Truist (3^rd)
• Justin Rose: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 3^rd, 3^rd) / Truist (3^rd, 3^rd)
• Lee Westwood: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Truist (4^th, 5^th)
• Sungjae Im: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Truist (4^th, 8^th)
• Ryan Moore: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Truist (5^th, 6^th)
• Joel Dahmen: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th) / Truist (2^nd)
• Keith Mitchell: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th, 6^th) / Truist (3^rd, 8^th)
• Byeong Hun An: Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 8^th) / Truist (3^rd)

Valspar Championship (Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course)

A couple of courses in Florida now, the first of which is fellow water-laden layout, the Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course. Despite being more densely tree-lined than this week's host, the doglegging fairways and smart bunkering provide similar demands off the tee, whilst the mid-to-long irons are again vital.

Notable correlating form:

• Viktor Hovland: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Valspar (1^st, 3^rd)
• Keegan Bradley: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 3^rd, 5^th) / Valspar (2^nd)
• Kevin Na: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 4^th) / Valspar (2^nd)
• Billy Horschel: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Valspar (4^th)
• Wyndham Clark: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Valspar (5^th)
• Tommy Fleetwood: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Valspar (3^rd)
• Sungjae Im: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Valspar (4^th)
• Troy Merritt: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Valspar (6^th, 8^th)
• Jordan Spieth: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 4^th) / Valspar (1^st)
• Patrick Cantlay: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Valspar (2^nd)
• Jason Kokrak: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 6^th) / Valspar (2^nd)
• Ryan Moore: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th)
• Bud Cauley: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Valspar (4^th)

Cognizant Classic (PGA National)

The form ties with PGA National are striking, and as a loosely tree-lined, open, and watery parkland with large bermudagrass greens, it's easy to see why. I would primarily focus on editions of the Cognizant (Honda) Classic pre-2024 when the course setup was much tougher and more in line with the challenge at Bay Hill.

Notable correlating form:

• Kurt Kitayama: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st) / Cognizant (3^rd)
• Russell Henley: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 4^th) / Cognizant (1^st, 3^rd)
• Tyrrell Hatton: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Cognizant (4^th)
• Lee Westwood: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Cognizant (4^th, 4^th)
• Sungjae Im: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Cognizant (1^st)
• Matt Jones: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Cognizant (1^st)
• Shane Lowry: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Cognizant (2^nd, 2^nd)
• Tommy Fleetwood: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Cognizant (3^rd, 4^th)
• Morgan Hoffman: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Cognizant (2^nd)
• Keith Mitchell: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th, 6^th) / Cognizant (1^st)
• Chris Kirk: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th, 8^th) / Cognizant (1^st)
• Ben Martin: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th) / Cognizant (5^th)
• Byeong Hun An: Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 8^th) / Cognizant (4^th, 5^th)

Texas Open (TPC San Antonio)

I'm going to head to Texas for my last suggestion, TPC San Antonio. They align closely across each area statistically, placing an emphasis on ball-striking and demanding a high volume of approaches from 175 yards and above.

Notable correlating form:

• Russell Henley: Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 4^th) / Texas (4^th)
• Charley Hoffman: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Texas (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd, 2^nd)
• Kevin Chappell: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Texas (1^st, 2^nd)
• Billy Horschel: Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Texas (3^rd, 3^rd, 4^th)
• Corey Conners: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Texas (1^st, 1^st)
• Matt Jones: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Texas (2^nd)
• Troy Merritt: Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Texas (4^th)
• Jordan Spieth: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 4^th) / Texas (1^st, 2^nd)
• Ryan Moore: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Texas (3^rd)
• Bud Cauley: Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Texas (5^th)
• Ben Martin: Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th) / Texas (7^th, 10^th)
• Matt Wallace: Arnold Palmer Invitational (6^th) / Texas (3^rd)
• Sung Kang: Arnold Palmer Invitational (6^th, 9^th) / Texas (6^th)
• Trey Mullinax: Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th) / Texas (2^nd)
• Byeong Hun An: Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 8^th) / Texas (6^th, 7^th)

THE FIELD

This elite 72-man field is headed by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and includes each member of the world's top 10, and 23 of the top 25.

Scheffler is, of course, a two-time winner of this event (2024, 2022) and alongside defending champion Russell Henley, there are 5 former champions in attendance in total. They are joined by Kurt Kitayama (2023), Rory McIlroy (2018), and Jason Day (2016).

Justin Thomas and Sungjae Im both return from injury to make their first appearances of 2026. Meanwhile, among eight Bay Hill debutants is last week's Cognizant Classic champion Nico Echavarria, and Chris Gotterup, who has already won twice this year.

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Scottie Scheffler 10/3, Rory McIlroy 10/1, Tommy Fleetwood 18/1, Xander Schauffele 22/1, Collin Morikawa 25/1, Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1

2 pts Collin Morikawa each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 25/1

Three weeks on from landing the season's opening Signature Event at Pebble Beach, I'm siding with Collin Morikawa to strike again at Bay Hill. The American let the Arnold Palmer Invitational slip through his fingers in 2025, and with his long game thriving, this presents an immediate opportunity for redemption on a layout that suits him perfectly.

Although opening 2026 with a missed cut at the Sony Open and 54^th-place finish at the Phoenix Open, Morikawa's ball-striking did give hope that he was close to finding form. He confirmed that progress at Pebble Beach, firing rounds of 62 and 67 over the weekend to come out on top by one, and he was again in form at the Genesis Invitational, where a final-round 65 guided him to 7^th place.

Ranking 1^st in SG: Approach and 2^nd in GIR, his irons were in top form three weeks ago, and they were also sharp at Riviera, where he ranked 8^th in SG: Approach and 11^th in GIR. He sits 2^nd on tour in proximity from 175-200 yards, and when combined with his driving prowess – ranking 10^th in driving accuracy and 23^rd in SG: OTT – the two-time major champ is currently striking it as purely as anyone.

Morikawa was 9^th on his second visit to Bay Hill but missed his next two cuts before a runner-up finish in 2025 – an event in which he held the 54-hole lead and looked a likely winner for much of Sunday. With finishes of 1^st, 2^nd, and 2^nd at Muirfield Village franking that form on a similarly demanding ball-strikers layout, he has every chance of going one better this week.

1.25 pts Viktor Hovland each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 40/1

Viktor Hovland has shown promise in the early weeks of the year without quite threatening to land a title. Florida was the scene of his only victory in 2025 and having finally got the driver under control at Riviera, this consistently strong long-iron player is set to be a feature at Bay Hill.

Beginning 2026 with a 14^th-place finish at the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour, Hovland then carried that promise into his first appearance stateside, finishing 10^th in Phoenix.

An underwhelming week with the driver cost him there, and the same issue surfaced at Pebble Beach. However, he delivered his best performance of the season in this area at the Genesis Invitational – ranking 9^th in driving accuracy and 20^th in SG: OTT – and I’m hoping he’ll kick on from there.

Whilst the Norwegian has been inconsistent off the tee, it’s been a different story for his iron play, which has been persistently excellent. He ranks 17^th for the season in SG: Approach and is particularly handy with the long irons, sitting 5^th from 175-200 yards, and he was also among the top players from 200 yards+ in 2025.

Hovland’s best effort at Bay Hill came in 2022, when he led at the halfway point before slipping into 2^nd place in tricky weekend conditions. He recorded another top-10 in 2023, and as a former winner of the Valspar Championship (2025) and Memorial Tournament (2023), his skillset is ideally suited to these championship-like tests.

1 pt Sepp Straka each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 55/1

We were on Sepp Straka when he finished a narrow but encouraging 2^nd to Collin Morikawa at Pebble Beach. He wasn’t quite on it at Riviera on his latest appearance, but I’m happy to forgive that bump in the road as he returns to a layout where he produced a best ever finish of 5^th in 2025.

Straka found his stride in the final round of The AmEx following a slow start, and it was a similar story next time out at the Phoenix Open, where a formidable weekend display propelled him into 18^th place after an uninspiring first two rounds. However, he made good on that promise at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, shooting four rounds of 68 or better to finish 2^nd.

Whilst a finish of 50^th in California two weeks ago looks like a backwards step, he played solidly for three rounds, but his week was undone by a nine-over 80 in round three.

That result is easy to ignore as his irons remained strong. Indeed, he ranked 7^th in SG: Approach in 2025, is 26^th at the early point of this year, and extra-encouragingly, he leads the field in proximity from 175-200 yards. Combined with his competent, accuracy-first driving and reliability on the greens, he’s tailor-made for Bay Hill.

Having missed his first four cuts before finishing 57^th in 2024, that wouldn’t be immediately evident when looking at Straka’s form. That said, he improved considerably in 2025 to finish 5^th, and as a winner at PGA National who has two top-five finishes at Muirfield Village, this proven Signature Event winner looks value to contend again.

1 pt Keegan Bradley each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 60/1

Florida-resident Keegan Bradley is a player who does most of his winning on the East Coast. He’s made a stuttering start to 2026, but with his irons finally igniting at Riviera, he can spring into life in these more comfortable surrounds.

After beginning the season with a missed cut at the Sony Open, Bradley looked to be trending in the right direction with following finishes of 43^rd at the Farmers Insurance Open and 29^th at Pebble Beach. An opening 76 at the Genesis Invitational put paid to any hope of again improving, but he did respond with a 69 in round two and perhaps more importantly, he ranked 2^nd in SG: Approach and 4^th in GIR during that round.

That’s significant because his iron play has lacked sharpness at the beginning of the year. As a typically reliable top-50 approach player, we can be confident he’ll retain that form, especially around a course where his quality long-iron play can thrive. He had also been driving it well before a minor blip two weeks ago, and looking neat and tidy around the greens, his tee-to-green looks in decent shape.

Missing just one cut in 14 appearances, Bradley has an excellent record at Bay Hill. He’s recorded five top-10s during that time, including a runner-up finish in 2015, whilst he was 5^th last year. He’s been 2^nd at the Valspar Championship, 4^th at the Cognizant Classic (pre-2024), and with several top-10s at the Memorial Tournament and Texas Open, this demanding ball-striking test is right up his street.

1 pt Daniel Berger each-way (1/5 - 6 places) @ 90/1

My final selection this week is Florida’s own Daniel Berger. This impressive ball-striker’s results don’t quite do his early-season play justice, and with two top-15s in just three Bay Hill outings, his odds have tempted me in.

Securing finishes of 6^th at the Sony Open and 16^th at the Phoenix Open across his first three starts, Berger entered the opening two Signature Events in encouraging form. He failed to fire at either, finishing 75^th at Pebble Beach and missing the cut at Riviera, but the return home brought about an upgraded 32^nd-place finish at the Cognizant Classic.

The American led the field in approach back in Phoenix and his irons were again in top shape at PGA National, ranking 5^th. He ranks 8^th in GIR and 20^th in SG: Approach so far in 2026 and his long irons are also flourishing, ranking 15^th from 175-200 yards.

Whilst not quite as watertight as in 2025, his driving has been sound, and with those Florida roots, it’s no surprise that he often improves on the putting surfaces on the East Coast.

This appealing profile for Bay Hill has been realised across his limited starts, finishing 13^th in 2015 and 15^th last year. Berger’s comfort in this part of the U.S. is further evidenced by results of 2^nd, 4^th and 4^th at the Cognizant Classic, and he can make that count to challenge at a tasty each-way price.

You can access all our latest Golf Odds over on betfred.com

Find all Jamie's latest Golf Betting Tips over on our dedicated golf Insights hub