NW Arkansas Championship 2024 Tips: Huge 200/1 shot one of six for Jamie

If the first half of the season belonged to Nelly Korda and her phenomenal six victories, there can be no doubt about who has taken the second half, as Lydia Ko locked up her third win in four starts in last week’s Kroger Queen City Championship.

Not content with completing the Olympic medals set in France, nor winning her first Women’s Open title at the dream setting of the Old Course, the New Zealander won her fourth title of the year in Ohio. Producing a scintillating 9-under 63 in the final round to glide past overnight leader, Jeeno Thitikul by five strokes.

Ko’s search for a fifth win this year takes her to Korea this week on the KLPGA. Whilst the LPGA will start their own four-week voyage around East Asia in two weeks, they first head to Pinnacle Country Club for the Arkansas Championship, which starts on Friday.

Our star golf tipster Jamie Worsley is back with his full NW Arkansas Championship preview and tips, which range from 30/1 to a huge 200/1!

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Arkansas Championship debuted in 2007 and has taken place every year since, with every edition held here at Pinnacle Country Club.

That first renewal of this usual 54-hole event was reduced to 18 holes due to bad weather and demoted to a non-official event, with then amateur, Stacy Lewis taking the title.

Lewis would then go on to record a much more conventional win in 2014 and she is one of three multiple winners of the championship, alongside Yani Tseng (2010, 2011) and Nasa Hataoka (2018, 2021).

Last five winners:

• 2023 – Winner: Haeran Ryu (-19); runner-up: Linnea Strom (-16)
• 2022 – Winner: Jeeno Thitikul (-17, playoff); runner-up: Danielle Kang (-17)
• 2021 – Winner: Nasa Hataoka (-16); runners-up: Eun-hee Ji, Minjee Lee (-15)
• 2020 – Winner: Austin Ernst (-20); runner-up: Anna Nordqvist (-18)
• 2019 – Winner: Sung-hyun Park (-18); runners-up: Inbee Park, Danielle Kang, Hyo Joo Kim (-17)

Last year’s renewal saw Korea’s Haeran Ryu win her first event on the LPGA, after threatening to make a quick breakthrough for much of her rookie season. She returns to defend in excellent form, having won her second tour title two starts ago in the FM Championship.

THE COURSE

Pinnacle Country Club was designed by Don Sechrest in 1990, before being renovated by Randy Heckenkemper in 2009.

This risk/reward par 71 measures in at 6438 yards and has 9x par 4s (320-431 yards), 5x par 3s (150-190 yards) and 4x par 5s (488-578 yards).

Whilst there is plenty of danger out there, with water in-play on 15 holes, the course has typically been susceptible to low scoring; averaging a winning score of -17.3 across the last 10 editions of this 54-hole event.

This well-conditioned, rolling course travels through winding tree-lined corridors, with streams bordering many holes and elevation changes throughout.

The zoysia fairways are very generous and with only limited bunkering and generally non-penal rough, they’re not too daunting. That being said, trees do hug the fairways on several of the doglegging holes, and players will need to show an element of strategy if wanting to avoid having their approaches blocked out.

The average-large bentgrass greens could play up to a speedy 12 on the stimp and are often multi-tiered, featuring subtle breaks that can be hard to read. Frequently narrow in shape and possessing some shaved run-offs that lead into chipping areas, players will need to be accurate on approach, with bunkers offering added protection.

With all of that water in-play and greens which can be both tough to hold and putt on, it may surprise some that the scoring here is so low, but there are just too many holes on which players can create excellent birdie chances.

Barring the lengthy 578-yard 2^nd hole, the par 5s are all reachable and there are four potentially drivable par 4s (holes, 1, 5, 9 and 10). On which the longer hitters can either hit the green or at least get very close to, leaving themselves a mere pitch to set up a birdie chance.

The par 3s do create problems, with the signature 150-yard 15^th requiring players to hit into a small island green. However, these nervy holes are few and far between and weather permitting, we should expect scoring to be low again this week.

THE WEATHER

Conditions are dry and warm in the build up to the event, but this is forecast to make way for some wet weather during the actual tournament days. It is predicted to be reasonably heavy on Friday, which should make the course receptive and with the wind not looking too troubling, we should see plenty of birdies once that rain disappears.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach

With receptive greens and countless wedge shots, I expect approach play to be absolutely key this week.

This certainly proved to be the case last year, as Haeran Ryu ranked 2^nd with her irons on the way to victory. Linnea Strom in 2^nd ranked 12^th in approach and of the four players to finish in tied-3^rd, Yuna Nishimura led the field in this area and Jenny Shin ranked 4^th.

Approach play also proved important in 2022, as winner, Jeeno Thitikul ranked 10^th and runner-up, Danielle Kang ranked 2^nd.

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

Though this setup is short enough for all players to score well, there’s no doubt that bigger hitters can take this course apart if on point with the driver.

I mentioned those shorter, potentially drivable par 4s, on which some of these longer players can take it over the corner of the dogleg to get up near the green. In addition, they also possess the firepower to take advantage of the par 5s.

Haeran Ryu is one of the best drivers around and she ranked 2^nd off-the-tee last year, driving the ball both straight and long. Linnea Strom in 2^nd, as well as Bianca Pagdanganan and Sei Young Kim in 3^rd also tick the same box.

Jeeno Thitikul is a strong, lengthy driver and she ranked 11^th in driving distance when winning in 2022.

• SG: Putting (bentgrass)

A hot putter is usually a prerequisite in a low scoring contest, and it’s played a big part in the statistical makeup of recent contenders.

Haeran Ryu ranked 14^th on the greens when taking the title last year, with Linnea Strom in 2^nd ranking 12^th and Sei Young Kim in 3^rd ranking 4^th.

Jeeno Thitikul was 9^th in putting in 2022. Whilst Chella Choi in 3^rd ranked 2^nd and Pornanong Phatlum in 4^th ranked 10^th.

• Birdie or Better Percentage

Finally, if not wanting to discriminate between strong iron players and putters, we can just focus on those players who make the most birdies+ on tour.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSES)

Dana Open (Highland Meadows Golf Club)

Though the fairways at Highland Meadows are narrower, this tree-lined course lacks real punishment, which has led to it producing some low winning scores and in turn, developing noteworthy form-ties with Pinnacle Country Club.

Notable correlating form:

Nasa Hataoka:

Arkansas (1^st, 1^st) / Dana (1^st)

So Yeon Ryu:

Arkansas (1^st, 2^nd) / Dana (1^st, 2^nd)

Na Yeon Choi:

Arkansas (1^st) / Dana (1^st)

Haeran Ryu:

Arkansas (1^st) / Dana (2^nd)

Austin Ernst:

Arkansas (1^st, 2^nd) / Dana (4^th, 5^th)

Danielle Kang:

Arkansas (2^nd, 2^nd) / Dana (1^st)

Linnea Strom:

Arkansas (2^nd) / Dana (5^th)

Amy Yang:

Arkansas (2^nd) / Dana (5^th)

Azahara Munoz:

Arkansas (2^nd, 3^rd) / Dana (8^th, 9^th)

Meijer LPGA Classic (Blythefield Country Club)

Blythefield Country Club is another rolling, tree-lined course with generous fairways, regular elevation changes and serves up low-scoring affairs.

Notable correlating form:

So Yeon Ryu:

Arkansas (1^st, 2^nd) / Meijer (1^st)

Nasa Hataoka:

Arkansas (1^st, 1^st) / Meijer (2^nd)

Jeeno Thitikul:

Arkansas (1^st) / Meijer (5^th)

Amy Yang:

Arkansas (2^nd) / Meijer (3^rd, 5^th)

Moriya Jutanugarn:

Arkansas (2^nd, 4^th) / Meijer (4^th)

Brittany Altomare:

Arkansas (3^rd, 5^th) / Meijer (2^nd, 3^rd)

Azahara Munoz:

Arkansas (2^nd, 3^rd) / Meijer (4^th, 8^th)

Portland Classic (Columbia Edgewater Country Club)

The tree-lined Columbia Edgewater features generous fairways, speedy greens of a similar size, risk/reward opportunities and plays to a comparable length. All which make it a likeable comp for this week’s course.

Notable correlating form:

Stacy Lewis:

Arkansas (1^st, 1^st) / Portland (1^st)

Austin Ernst:

Arkansas (1^st) / Portland (1^st)

So Yeon Ryu:

Arkansas (1^st, 2^nd) / Portland (3^rd)

Nasa Hataoka:

Arkansas (1^st, 1^st) / Portland (4^th)

Moriya Jutanugarn:

Arkansas (2^nd, 4^th) / Portland (1^st, 3^rd, 3^rd)

Candie Kung:

Arkansas (2^nd) / Portland (2^nd)

Eun-hee Ji:

Arkansas (2^nd) / Portland (5^th)

Brittany Altomare:

Arkansas (3^rd, 5^th) / Portland (3^rd, 3^rd)

Azahara Munoz:

Arkansas (2^nd, 3^rd) / Portland (5^th)

FM Championship (TPC Boston)

Now for two courses that are new to the LPGA, starting with TPC Boston. I mentioned Arkansas as a potential comp for this tree-lined course a few weeks ago in the FM Championship due to its rolling, generous fairways, quick bentgrass greens and risk/reward chances. It was a comp which looked favourable at the top of the leaderboard.

Notable correlating form:

Haeran Ryu:

Arkansas (1^st) / FM Championship (1^st)

Jeeno Thitikul:

Arkansas (1^st) / FM Championship (4^th)

Carlota Ciganda:

Arkansas (6^th, 10^th) / FM Championship (10^th)

2024 Kroger Queen City Championship (TPC River’s Bend)

It was the same story for last week’s host of the Kroger Queen City Championship, TPC River’s Bend. An undulating course with wide fairway; bentgrass greens that are almost identical in size and speed to Pinnacle Country Club; and was the scene of some low scoring. With that, it was a leaderboard that produced some striking correlating form with this week’s event.

Notable correlating form:

Lydia Ko:

Arkansas (1^st) / Kroger Queen (1^st)

Jeeno Thitikul:

Arkansas (1^st) / Kroger Queen (2^nd)

Haeran Ryu:

Arkansas (1^st) / Kroger Queen (3^rd)

Yuka Saso:

Arkansas (4^th) / Kroger Queen (4^th)

Yealimi Noh:

Arkansas (8^th) / Kroger Queen (9^th)

THE FIELD

World #2, Lilia Vu heads the field in Arkansas; she is one of three players from inside the top-10 and one of 10 from the top-25.

Among that group of players is the defending champion, Haeran Ryu (#9) and the woman she succeeded last year, Jeeno Thitikul (#12). They are joined by two further former winners, both of whom are two-time champions, Nasa Hataoka (2021, 2018) and Stacy Lewis (2014, 2007).

The LPGA also welcomes back to action several members of the winning US Solheim Cup team: Lauren Coughlin, Ally Ewing, Megan Khang, Jennifer Kupcho and Allisen Corpuz.

Finally, look out for current University of Arkansas attendee, Maria Marin. The Colombian currently ranks as the 10^th-best amateur in the world and has a string of impressive performances in high-profile amateur events to her name in recent months. These include finishing 3^rd in the US Women’s Amateur Championship and 4^th in the NCAA D1 Women’s Championship.

NW Arkansas Championship Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main NW Arkansas Championship market on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this tournament.

SELECTIONS

Market leaders: Jeeno Thitikul 15/2, Haeran Ryu 9/1, Lilia Vu 12/1, Lauren Coughlin 12/1, Nasa Hataoka 22/1, Mao Saigo 22/1, Lexi Thompson 22/1, Megan Khang 22/1

Former winners, Haeran Ryu and Jeeno Thitikul are a formidable pairing at the top of the betting, coming here after finishing 2^nd and 3^rd last week. That being said, they hold little appeal at the prices, in an event which will likely end up a birdie-fest and could be won by anyone with a hot putter.

There is nobody at the very top who stands out to me, and I’ll instead start just outside those market leaders with last week’s 4^th-place finisher, Yuka Saso.

1.5 pts Yuka Saso each-way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 30/1 

Saso started the season well and capitalised on that form to become a two-time US Women’s Open winner back in June. She struggled thereafter, missing four of her next six cuts and failing to record a top-50, but she returned to form last week, with a 4^th-place finish at TPC River’s Bend.

She’s a player who excels off-the-tee, ranking 5^th and her lengthy 19^th in driving distance can see her take it to these short par 4s and par 5s. Further rankings of 4^th in birdies or better and 6^th in putting are another huge plus, and although her approach play has been somewhat of a weakness this year, she did produce her third-best iron display of the season last week.

Saso finished 4^th here on debut in 2021 and has gone on to record finishes of 32^nd and 23^rd in the last two years. Top-5 finishes in the Dana Open and last week’s Kroger Queen City Championship offer some encouraging pieces of comp form and indicate that she’ll be a big contender this week.

1.25 pts Sei Young Kim each way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 35/1

After a positive start to the year, Sei Young Kim hit a rough patch of form in June, with her suffering from a back injury. She also withdrew from the FM Championship four weeks ago, though returned from a three-week absence to record her first top-20 since May last week and possessing a good record here, she can back that effort up in Arkansas.

Kim didn’t miss a cut across her first 10 starts this year and only finished outside of the top-20 on two occasions. She then withdrew from the US Women’s Open due to those injury concerns and followed that by missing three of her next four cuts. However, she’s made three of her last four, which culminated in a 19^th-place finish in the Kroger Queen City Championship.

She’s displayed little weakness this year, gaining strokes in all areas and ranks 10^th on tour in birdies or better. Her approach play has been her biggest weapon, ranking 31^st, indeed, she produced her best performance of the season in this area last week and ranking 29^th in driving distance, she can overpower this course.

Kim’s best putting performances of the last couple of years have come on bentgrass and she put that to good use here last year, ranking 4^th on the greens on the way to a 3^rd-place finish – her best ever in the event and her second top-5 after finishing 5^th in 2020. She’s also won both the Dana Open and Meijer LPGA Classic – two of the comp courses mentioned above - and the Korean can tap into these experiences to record her first win since 2020.

1 pt A Lim Kim each way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 55/1 

A Lim Kim has been a touch inconsistent this year, but there have been plenty of positives among her missed cuts. After equalling her best finish of the year last week, she can again go well at this suitable fit.

Kim has made 19 starts in 2024 and missed seven cuts, though has hit the top-25 on seven occasions when she has made it to the weekend. Three of those finishes have come across her last five starts, as she finished 22^nd in the Portland Classic, 18^th in the Scottish Women’s Open and after missing both cuts in the FM Championship and Women’s Open, she finished 9^th at TPC River’s Bend last week.

She’s a high-class and powerful driver of the ball, ranking 10^th off-the-tee and 6^th in driving distance. Whilst her inconsistency with the putter and irons has played a part in her inconsistent form, there have been positives in both areas of late, especially on the greens, with two of her four best putting performances of the year coming across those last five starts.

Kim has played here three times and has performed commendably, hitting the top-30 on each occasion. That 9^th-place finish last week also bodes well for her potential to perform this week and I’m taking the 2020 US Women’s Open winner to strongly contend for her first LPGA non-major in Arkansas.

1 pt Nanna Koerstz Madsen each way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 60/1

Big-hitting Dane, Nanna Koerstz Madsen is enjoying her best run of form of the season and has been making plenty of birdies. She can utilise her power and scoring ability to record her best finish of the season in Arkansas.

Madsen has looked solid for most of the year, recording 10 top-25 finishes. However, she’s been at her strongest over her last five starts, recording top-10 finishes of 8^th in the CPKC Women’s Open, 10^th in the Women’s Open and 9^th in last week’s Kroger Queen City Championship.

The driver is her biggest weapon, ranking 32^nd off-the-tee and 12^th in driving distance. Though she has looked good in all areas of late, particularly with the putter, as shown by her ranking of 7^th on last week’s bentgrass surfaces.

Madsen has played here four times and missed three cuts; however she did finish 19^th in 2021. With her power and recent form, I see no reason why she can’t improve on that this week.

0.75 pts Polly Mack each way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 125/1

Polly Mack looks to have found her feet at this level in recent starts and as the longest driver on the LPGA, she has the weaponry to subdue Pinnacle Country Club.

Mack turned pro in 2022 after reaching a high of #30 in the amateur rankings. She showed plenty of promise on the Epson Tour in her debut season, though struggled to transfer that to the LPGA in 2023 and looked to be on the same path this year, until the last few weeks.

After missing each of her previous five cuts, the German finished 39^th in the CPKC Women’s Open four starts ago and she has got even better over her next starts. She followed that with a 5^th-place finish in the Portland Classic – her best ever finish on the tour – and after missing the cut in the FM Open, she returned to finish 14^th last week.

She’s been exceptional with the driver all season, ranking 6^th off-the-tee and as mentioned, she’s 1^st in driving distance. The irons had been solid enough, but she has improved with them in recent weeks, recording her best approach numbers of the year in Portland and the Kroger Queen City Championship. Whilst last week she also produced her second-best putting display of the season on those bentgrass greens.

Mack’s a player on a big upward curve right now and with those two recent top-15 finishes boding well in relation to this challenge, I’m taking her to keep moving in the right direction this week.

0.5 pts Maria Fassi each way (1/4 - 5 places) @ 200/1

Finally, University of Arkansas alumni, Maria Fassi recorded just her second LPGA top-20 of the season last week and with this Mexican bomber possessing some handy form here, I’m taking her to carry that momentum over into this week.

Fassi has missed 10 cuts in 17 starts on tour this year but there had been some more positive signs prior to her 19^th-place finish last week, as she’d made four of her previous seven, including a 12^th-place finish in the Shoprite Classic.

She’d been one of the strongest drivers on tour in the previous two seasons but her waywardness in 2024 has caused her ranking to slip in this area. However, this third-longest player on tour did produce her fourth-best driving display of the season last week and combining it with her joint-best effort on the bentgrass greens, we saw that upgraded result.

Fassi missed her first three cuts here – two of them when still an amateur – though has made three of her last four, recording a best of 15^th in 2020. With two top-10s in the Dana Open to her name, she has some noteworthy comp form and with all things considered, she’s well worth a shot at a huge three-figure price this week.

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