Men’s Olympics Paris 2024 Golf Tips: Back Morikawa to Go for Gold

Week in, week out, the top golfers in the world play for a big purse and the chance to walk away with millions of dollars in prize money. This week however, it is a disc of gold they are all after as the focus turns to Paris 2024 and the Olympics Golf tournament.

Our golf tipster Jamie Worsley takes us through his guide to the event and has a strong feeling that Collin Morikawa is on for a good result. You can read why and all of his Men's Olympics Paris 2024 Golf Tips in his in-depth preview below...

The men’s major season came to a close a couple of weeks ago in Scotland with Xander Schauffele’s impressive victory at Royal Troon. Though there is still one highly-coveted title up for grabs this year, as Schauffele heads off to France in defence of his Olympic title at Le Golf National this week.  

*You can get all the latest Men's Olympics Paris 2024 Golf Odds and bet on the event with us at betfred.com

TOURNAMENT HISTORY 

Golf first participated in the 1900 Olympics in Paris and then in St Louis in 1904. However, we had a 112-year wait to see it included again, as it returned in Rio in 2016. 

Justin Rose took home the gold medal for Team GB there at the purpose-built Rio de Janeiro Olympic Golf Course. He beat Henrik Stenson by two strokes to relegate the Swede into silver medal position, with American, Matt Kuchar taking home the Bronze Medal. 

Xander Schauffele claimed the gold in the delayed 2021 edition in Tokyo, at Kasumigaseki Country Club. Rory Sabbatini, representing Slovakia, bagged the silver medal and C.T Pan battled hard for the bronze, coming out on top in a seven-man playoff. 

Schauffele will defend this week and has every chance to successfully do so as a now two-time major champion. 

THE COURSE 

The home for some of the world’s best golfers over the next couple of weeks is Le Golf National, which is situated just outside of Paris. The course was most famously seen as the host of the 2018 Ryder Cup, where Team Europe ran riot against the U.S with a 17 ½ - 10 ½ victory. That being said, the event with which it is most closely associated is the Open de France on the DP World Tour, having been the predominant host since 1991 and exclusively since 2002. 

The course was first designed by the team of Hubert Chesneau and Robert von Hagge in 1990, before undergoing renovations at the hands of the European Golf Design group in preparation for the Ryder Cup. It has traditionally provided one of the sternest tests on DPWT, averaging a winning score of -10.7 over the last 10 renewals of the Open de France. 

Le Golf National will play as a 7174-yard par 71 for the men; possessing 11x par 4s (375-486 yards), 4x par 3s (168-210 yards) and 3x par 5s (552-579 yards). 

This open and exposed venue is somewhat linksy in style, with tall mounds – which provide a fantastic vantage point for fans – framing most holes. Although, the most prominent and intimidating design feature is without doubt the numerous water hazards; coming into play on 10 holes in total. 

The rolling fairways are around average width overall, with a reasonably even split between narrow and wide landing areas. There is some strategic bunkering on several and the ryegrass/fescue rough which lines many of these manmade mounds can be very punishing the further you stray from the short stuff. 

The large poa annua/bentgrass mixed greens are fairly undulating and usually easy to hit in the Open de France. However, with most of these surfaces placed at an angle to the fairway position and narrow/shallow in shape, pin positions can be tough and players will need to be at their most precise in approach to conquer them.  

The punishment for missing them is severe. Many of the greens are well bunkered, whilst run-offs can lead into the various swales and hollows that surround them, and with more of that thick rough again punishing the most wayward ball-strikers, the course ranks 2nd in scrambling difficulty on the DPWT. 

As mentioned, water plays a major role at Le Golf National and makes for an exciting, perilous finish, with 15, 16 and 18 all playing around/in the same lake. 

The 405-yard par 4 15th has water right of a generous fairway, with players then tasked with finding a small green surrounded by water. Following that, they move on to the shortest hole on the course, the 168-yard par 3 16th. Going short here is a no go, with water short-right and three bunkers short-left.  

The field moves away from the water briefly on the 480-yard par 4 17th, though this right-to-left doglegging hole is not without danger, with the narrow fairway and smallish green both tough to find. 

Escape the previous three holes without any damage being done and they then arrive at the nerve-wracking 471-yard par 4 18th. Though the fairway is reasonably generous, there is water to the left and six penal bunkers in the rough to the right. Find the short grass and the tension doesn’t waver, as the competitors must then play a treacherous approach into an albeit large final green. 

It’s a finish that can be a complete chance-destroyer and will make for a tense ending for those chasing the medals on Sunday. 

THE WEATHER 

The forecast is predicting largely sunny, dry and hot weather throughout the week, with the humidity bringing with it the possibility of thunderstorms.  

It doesn’t take much for wind to be a factor on this exposed setup and with a constant 9-11mph breeze and gusts of upto 25mph over the course of the event, players will need to show some ability to play in the wind. 

KEY STATS 

• SG: Approach 

Fortunately, we have plenty of statistical evidence of what’s needed at Le Golf National thanks to the Open de France and though players will need to show quality across the board on such a demanding layout, high-class ball-striking is a must. 

Approach has been especially key, as proven by last year’s Open de France, where winner, Ryo Hisatsune ranked 3rd and runner-up, Jordan Smith ranked 1st. 

Guido Migliozzi ranked 1st in approach when winning here in 2022, with 3rd-place finishers, Thomas Pieters and Paul Barjon both ranking inside the top-7. 

Further to this, 2019 winner, Nicolas Colsaerts ranked 2nd in approach and 2018 champion, Alex Noren ranked inside the top-10. 

• SG: Off-the-Tee  

The driver is another important asset at the course and though Hisatsune didn’t necessarily prove this last year, it was another area where runner-up, Jordan Smith ranked 1st. Whilst 5th-place finisher, Lucas Nemecz was 4th. 

Both 2022 and 2019 winners, Guido Migliozzi and Nicolas Colsaerts are players who have excelled with driver throughout their careers. Something which can also be said about contenders such as Thomas Pieters, Kurt Kitayama and Paul Barjon. 

• SG: Putting (Poa/Bent) 

Most winners here putt well, with each of the last two ranking inside the top-10 on the greens. We should pay particular attention to those who have excelled on similar poa/bent surfaces to what they’ll be faced with this week. 

• Par 5 Scoring 

Finally, on a course where scoring chances aren’t freely given up, it’s extra important to score well on a gettable selection of par 5s.  

CORRELATING EVENTS 

DP World Tour: 

Made in HimmerLand (HimmerLand Resort) 

The HimmerLand Resort’s exposed, links-like nature, where steep mounds frame the fairways and on which water is in-play on around one-third of the holes, has helped it develop strong form-ties with Le Golf National. 

Notable correlating form: 

Bernd Wiesberger: 

France (1st) / HimmerLand (1st, 1st) 

Guido Migliozzi: 

France (1st) / HimmerLand (2nd) 

Ryo Hisatsune: 

France (1st) / HimmerLand (8th) 

Rasmus Hojgaard: 

France (2nd, 4th) / HimmerLand (1st) 

Julian Suri: 

France (2nd) / HimmerLand (1st) 

Jordan Smith: 

France (2nd) / HimmerLand (3rd) 

Thomas Pieters: 

France (3rd) / HimmerLand (1st) 

Alexander Bjork: 

France (3rd, 8th) / HimmerLand (4th, 6th) 

Richie Ramsay: 

France (5th, 5th) / HimmerLand (3rd) 

Matthew Southgate: 

France (5th) / HimmerLand (4th) 

Qatar Masters (Doha Golf Club) 

Doha Golf Club is an exposed course with large greens and serves up a similar ball-striking challenge to this week’s host. Often affected by the wind, players who have handled conditions out there in the Middle East can do so here in France. 

Notable correlating form: 

Bernd Wiesberger: 

France (1st) / Qatar (3rd) 

Chris Wood: 

France (2nd) / Qatar (1st) 

Thorbjorn Olesen: 

France (2nd, 3rd) / Qatar (2nd, 3rd) 

Jordan Smith: 

France (2nd) / Qatar (5th, 6th) 

George Coetzee: 

France (3rd, 3rd) / Qatar (2nd, 2nd) 

Mike Lorenzo-Vera: 

France (3rd, 6th) / Qatar (2nd, 4th) 

Marcus Kinhult: 

France (5th) / Qatar (3rd, 3rd) 

Wales Open (Celtic Manor) 

Celtic Manor is another exposed former Ryder Cup venue with plenty of water in-play and is similarly difficult to this week’s layout. 

Notable correlating form: 

Graeme McDowell: 

France (1st, 1st) / Wales (1st) 

Alex Noren: 

France (1st) / Wales (1st) 

Thongchai Jaidee: 

France (1st, 2nd) / Wales (1st) 

Tommy Fleetwood: 

France (1st) / Wales (2nd) 

Nicolas Colsaerts: 

France (1st) / Wales (4th) 

Richard Sterne: 

France (2nd) / Wales (2nd) 

Peter Uihlein: 

France (2nd) / Wales (2nd) 

Thomas Pieters: 

France (3rd) / Wales (3rd) 

Jamie Donaldson: 

France (5th, 6th, 6th) / Wales (4th, 8th) 

European Open (Green Eagle – North Course) 

The North Course at Green Eagle is an exposed, water-laden setup with similar averages in driving accuracy and scrambling to Le Golf National. 

Notable correlating form: 

Marcel Siem: 

France (1st) / European Open (2nd) 

Bernd Wiesberger: 

France (1st) / European Open (2nd, 5th) 

Guido Migliozzi: 

France (1st) / European Open (7th, 8th) 

Jordan Smith: 

France (2nd) / European Open (1st) 

Alexander Bjork: 

France (3rd, 8th) / European Open (6th) 

Matthew Southgate: 

France (5th) / European Open (2nd) 

Italian Open (Marco Simone Golf & Country Club) 

Lastly from the DPWT, I wonder if previous Italian Open host, Marco Simone G&CC may work. Form-ties aren’t overly abundant due to the limited amount of events hosted there, though as an exposed risk/reward Ryder Cup venue, that possesses a similarly demanding tee-to-green challenge as Le Golf National, especially in scrambling difficulty, I felt it was worth a look. 

Notable correlating form: 

Tommy Fleetwood: 

France (1st) / Italy (2nd) 

Alexander Bjork: 

France (3rd, 8th) / Italy (4th) 

Kurt Kitayama: 

France (4th) / Italy (7th) 

PGA Tour: 

This is obviously not a DP World Tour event and many players in this field have only limited experience of playing on the tour, which means we should look for alternatives in the U.S. 

The RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort, the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities and four-time host of The Northern Trust/The Barclays, Liberty National Golf Club, all share similar characteristics. However, there is one event that stood out above the rest here in terms of the likeness of the challenge and we have some reasonably strong comp form to boot. 

Cognizant Classic (PGA National): 

PGA National is of a similar length and is an exposed, watery course that possesses one of the most difficult short-game challenges on the PGA Tour. 

Notable correlating form: 

Graeme McDowell: 

France (1st, 1st) / Cognizant (5th, 6th) 

Tommy Fleetwood: 

France (1st) / Cognizant (3rd, 4th) 

Alex Noren: 

France (1st) / Cognizant (3rd, 5th) 

Russell Knox: 

France (2nd) / Cognizant (2nd, 3rd) 

Martin Kaymer: 

France (4th, 4th, 5th, 5th) / Cognizant (4th) 

Kurt Kitayama: 

France (4th) / Cognizant (3rd) 

Jamie Donaldson: 

France (5th, 6th, 6th) / Cognizant (6th) 

THE FIELD 

We have a typically eclectic Olympic field set to tee it up in Paris. Each player from the top-15 in the world (as of June 17th) was eligible to compete, though with a maximum of four from one country. This is why there are four players from the U.S as opposed to just a maximum of two from other nations, with world #1 Scottie Scheffler, along with #2 and defending champion Xander Schauffele, #5 Wyndham Clark and #6 Collin Morikawa all in the top-15 at that point and still remaining there. 

Eight of the world’s top 10 will tee it up in total, with the American quartet joined by #3 Rory McIlroy, #4 Ludvig Aberg, #7 Viktor Hovland and #10 Jon Rahm. 

2016 winner, Justin Rose didn’t qualify and Team GB will instead be represented by the high-class duo of Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick. Whilst Matthieu Pavon and Victor Perez represent this year’s French hosts. 

Overall, there will be 32 different nationalities taking part, with the limited 60-player field spanning 427 positions in the world rankings, from Scheffler at #1 to current #427, Tapio Pulkkanen of Finland. 

SELECTIONS 

Market leaders: Scottie Scheffler 7/2, Xander Schauffele 11/2, Rory McIlroy 8/1, Jon Rahm 10/1, Ludvig Aberg 11/1, Collin Morikawa 11/1 

Whilst there’ve been a variety of challengers in the two recent Olympic events so far, with some players no doubt buoyed by the honour of representing their country, the two winners have been of the highest quality. This should come as no surprise, with a concentrated group of elites joined by a bunch of more unfamiliar names and I expect that theme of high-class winners to continue this week. 

I’m happy enough to leave the top three in the betting alone and whilst I think proud Spaniard, Jon Rahm represents a serious danger following his performances the last two weeks, I couldn’t get away from thinking that Le Golf National looks like an ideal spot for in-form Collin Morikawa. 

Collin Morikawa 

Morikawa failed to really fire over his opening seven starts this year but it’s been a completely different story since he finished 3rd at Augusta in April. In his nine solo starts since then, he has hit the top-20 in each start, including the other three majors and recorded four top-5 finishes; going best when finishing runner-up in the Memorial Tournament. 

He’s been driving it well all season, ranking 15th and whilst his high-class approach play had deserted him earlier in the year, he has improved massively in recent weeks, ranking 9th over his last 20 rounds. With huge gains made with the short game in 2024, he’s arguably playing the most well-rounded golf of his career from a statistical point of view and just needs a victory to take advantage of his high-class play. 

Morikawa was 4th on his Olympic debut in 2021 in Japan, losing out in that seven-man playoff for the bronze medal. He doesn’t have the advantage of a start here, though a 2nd-place finish at Twin Cities in 2019 could be a good pointer and with his precision-based ball-striking game and newfound quality with the short game, Le Golf National should be a perfect fit. 

Tom Kim 

Tom Kim missed the cut on his last start in the Open Championship. However, we was hindered by a disadvantageous draw there and now at a suitable course, where he finished top-10 on debut last year, I’m taking him to bounce back from those disappointments this week. 

Kim had been showing some decent form prior to his trip to Scotland. He’d finished inside the top-30 in each of the prior three majors this year and entered that week with two top-5s in his previous six starts, finishing 2nd in the Travelers Championship and 4th in the Canadian Open. 

Those results were a step up on his form earlier in the year and were all due to the improvements he’d made with his ball-striking, ranking 19th in approach and 26th off-the-tee over his last 20 rounds. 

Kim fired a superb 64 to lead after the opening round of his Open de France debut here last year, before eventually finishing 6th. He looked excellent on the greens that week, ranking 5th and if he can perform to a similar level with the flat stick, he’s hitting the ball well enough to be a major player this week. 

Sepp Straka 

Sepp Straka went well when 22nd in The Open last time out and with some appealing correlating form for the challenge that awaits at Le Golf National, he looks an interesting contender this week. 

Following a slow start to the year, Straka has been consistently strong since hitting the top-20 in THE PLAYERS Championship. Across his last 11 starts, he’s had seven top-25s and three 5th-place finishes, coming in the RBC Heritage, Charles Schwab Challenge and Memorial Tournament. 

Ball-striking has been the key to the Austrian’s performances this year and he ranks inside the top-40 in both approach and off-the-tee. He’s been especially strong with his irons over the last three months, ranking 10th. 

Straka took the first-round lead on his Olympic debut in 2021 before eventually finishing 10th. Though he hasn’t played here before, he won at PGA National in 2022 and followed up with a 5th-place finish there last year. That represents some exciting comp form and suggests he should like what he finds in Paris. 

Sami Valimaki 

There were a couple of bigger prices up there challenging for medals last time out and I’m taking Finn, Sami Valimaki to enjoy a good week at Le Golf National. Whilst he comes here after two missed cuts in a row in Scotland, he only missed them narrowly, and with his irons and putter looking decent lately, he has plenty in his favour. 

Valimaki is currently in the midst of his rookie season on the PGA Tour and it was one which started promisingly when he finished 2nd in the Mexico Open on his fifth start. He’s struggled for form since then, though did record his second-best finish of the year in the John Deere Classic three starts ago, finishing 12th.  

His performance in the John Deere was down to his best putting and second-best approach performances of the season. He has been steady throughout his bag in 2024, gaining strokes overall off-the-tee and in approach, whilst he’s around average on the greens. 

Valimaki made his Olympic debut in 2021 and finished a respectable 27th. He also went well on his debut at Le Golf National in 2022, finishing 20th.  

That should come as no surprise, as he’s a player who often does his best work on open and exposed courses. Both of his DP World Tour wins have come on such setups, the first in Oman in 2020 and he then doubled up in Qatar at the end of 2023. We can also find evidence of this from his best effort on the PGA Tour this year in Mexico and as a player who has a runner-up finish in Wales to his name, he should really appreciate this test. 

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