Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Tips: Morikawa to rule at Bay Hill

The PGA Tour has been all about the outsiders in the last two weeks, as Joe Highsmith – having only just made the cut on the number – shot a superb 64-64 over the final two rounds of the Cognizant Classic to win his first tour title, a week after Brian Campbell’s surprise win in Mexico.

In doing so, Highsmith became the first player since Brandt Snedeker in the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open to win an event having so narrowly made the cut.

We stay in Florida for the chief event of a double-header on the PGA Tour this week, as an elite, limited field heads to Bay Hill Golf Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational – the fourth Signature Event of the season.

As always, here are our golf tipster Jamie Worsley's Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 tips, as well as his usual comprehensive preview featuring four players priced from 22/1 all the way out to 150/1.

TOURNAMENT HISTORY

The Arnold Palmer Invitational was first held in 1966, when it was then called the Florida Citrus Open. It has been played at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill since 1979, and the event has bared the great man’s name since 2007.

Palmer won this tournament once, which came pre-Bay Hill in 1971; whilst plenty of other star names have had their names etched onto the trophy, including Lee Trevino (1975) and Payne Stewart (1987). However, there’s nobody who has come close to enjoying the success in this event that Tiger Woods has.

Tiger has won eight times at Bay Hill in total, with his first victory coming in 2000. This was the first of four straight wins – the last of which came via an 11-shot demolition of the field in 2003 – and he then recorded back-to-back wins in 2008/09 and 2012/13.

Last five winners:

• 2024 – Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-15)

Runner-up: Wyndham Clark (-10)

• 2023 – Winner: Kurt Kitayama (-9)

Runners-up: Harris English, Rory McIlroy (-8)

• 2022 – Winner: Scottie Scheffler (-5)

Runners-up: Tyrrell Hatton, Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland (-4)

• 2021 – Winner: Bryson DeChambeau (-11)

Runner-up: Lee Westwood (-10)

• 2020 – Winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)

Runner-up: Marc Leishman (-3)

Scottie Scheffler was an emphatic five-shot winner of this event in 2024, as he regained the trophy he first won in 2022. That win saw him become the latest addition to a seven-strong list of two-time winners; he gets the chance to go second on that list with a third win this week.

THE COURSE

Although first designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, ensuing renovations by Arnold Palmer – including an especially extensive one in 2009 – means that Bay Hill Golf Club & Lodge is very much The King’s design now.

The course plays as a par 72 and measures 7466yds. It possesses 4x par 3s (199-231 yards, 10x par 4s (390-480 yards) and 4x par 5s (511-590 yards).

Bay Hill is one of the most demanding regular courses on tour, averaging a winning score of -12.1 across the last 10 renewals. It tests every club in the bag and gives us a helpful indication of which players have their game in good shape with major season fast approaching.

This flat venue is loosely tree-lined and though looking largely spacious, there is lots of strategy required to overcome it.

The fairways are narrow-average in width; with most doglegged and strategically placed bunkers shrinking the landing areas further, they have developed into some of the toughest to find on tour over the last five years. Alongside the abundant bunkering, lush overseeded ryegrass rough provides added protection.

Those challenges off the tee then heightens the pressure into the large and speedy bermudagrass greens, which despite their size, rank as the hardest to find on the PGA Tour. Many of them are elevated, with some multi-tiered and sloping, and others possessing more gentle, tough-to-read breaks. Strong bunkering again offers protection, whilst most of the surfaces are now surrounded by thick rough.

Water is a significant danger at Bay Hill, in-play on nine holes in total, including each of the final three.

This starts with one of four relatively scorable par 5s, the 511yd 16^th. Although short in length, the hole doglegs from left-to-right, with bunkers protecting either side of the fairway and water short-left of the green.

The 221yd par 3 17^th is the last of four lengthy and difficult par 3s. Possessing an angled and shallow green, it is surrounded by bunkers and water that sits short and right.

The course closes out with the 458yd par 18th. Here, players will drive into a tight fairway, that whilst not protected by bunkers has rough on both sides. If found, it can make the final approach into the narrow, sloping green – which bends around water short and right – even more daunting and is always an unenviable hole to navigate to close out if in contention.

Bay Hill’s finish very much sums up what the course is about, with scoreable but risk/reward par 5s, a challenging and long par 3, and a demanding par 4. All of which require a high level of ball-striking to tame.

THE WEATHER

There are a couple of thunderstorms forecast on the Wednesday preceding the event, potentially softening the course up for Thursday’s opening round. This threat is expected to linger throughout the week, with some more downpours forecast for the weekend.

Wind looks like being a feature for most of the tournament, with constant speeds of around 12mph accompanied by close to 30mph gusts. Which should make for a challenging week in Orlando.

KEY STATS

• SG: Approach/Greens-in-Regulation/Proximity 175yds+

Bay Hill really requires a strong all-round performance to contend, but as a challenging and penal ball-striking venue, you need to be in form with the long game above all.

Approach play is particularly important, especially with the long irons and with rain on the way that should be even more prevalent this week.

Scottie Scheffler ranked 2^nd in greens-in-regulation on his way to winning last year and 12^th in approach. Meanwhile, runner-up Wyndham Clark was 6^th in GIR, 14^th in approach and the strongest long iron player in the field, ranking 1^st from 200yds+ and 2^nd from 175-200yds.

Kurt Kitayama was 2^nd in GIR, 2^nd from 200yds+ and 16^th in approach when winning in 2023.

Scottie Scheffler ranked 1^st in approach when he won his first title here in 2022. Billy Horschel in 2^nd ranked 5^th in approach and Viktor Hovland (also a runner-up) was the leading player from 175-200yds and 200yds+.

Bryson DeChambeau ranked 2^nd in GIR, 8^th from 175-200yds/200yds+ and 9^th in approach on his way to claiming the trophy in 2021. His nearest challenger, Lee Westwood ranked 1^st in GIR and 3^rd in approach, whilst 3^rd-place finisher, Corey Conners ranked 1^st in approach.

Tyrrell Hatton ranked 2^nd in approach when taking the title in 2020 and we also saw a strong iron display from 2015 champion Matt Every – ranking 2^nd in approach and 3^rd in GIR.

• SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance

The driver is another hugely important club here on one of the toughest driving courses on tour. Length is often key at the top of the leaderboard, and we should expect that to be the case again this week with soft conditions likely.

Scottie Scheffler was the leading driver in the field in 2024, with runner-up, Wyndham Clark ranking 4^th. Both were also top 12 in driving distance.

Kurt Kitayama was more about accuracy than power in 2023. This was in contrast to runner-up, Rory McIlroy, who ranked 2^nd in driving distance and 12^th off-the-tee.

Scottie Scheffler was top 10 in driving distance when winning in 2022; Bryson DeChambeau ranked 1^st OTT and in driving distance in 2021; whilst 2019 winner, Francesco Molinari achieved his success due in large part to a field-leading driving display.

• SG: Putting (bermudagrass)

The putter is always important at Bay Hill, and we should pay particular attention to those who excel on bermudagrass.

Scottie Scheffler ranked 5^th on the greens last year; Kurt Kitayama ranked 2^nd in 2023; and of the last 10 winners, seven ranked inside the top 10 in putting and all were top 25.

• Scrambling

On greens that are usually tough to hit and in potential conditions that could exacerbate this, you’ve got to be able to get it up and down around this course.

Scottie Scheffler ranked 15^th in scrambling last year; Kurt Kitayama ranked 1^st in 2023; Francesco Molinari was the ninth-best scrambler in the field when winning in 2019; and each of 2018, 2016 and 2015 winners, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Matt Every, all ranked top four in scrambling.

• Par 5 Scoring

Lastly, birdie chances are few and far between at Bay Hill and players will need to make the most of the chances offered up on the par 5s.

Indeed, Scottie Scheffler ranked 1^st in par 5 scoring in each of his two victories. In addition, Bryson DeChambeau ranked 3^rd in 2021, Marc Leishman ranked 2^nd in 2017, and Jason Day ranked 5^th in 2016.

CORRELATING EVENTS (COURSE)

Wells Fargo Championship/2017 PGA Championship (Quail Hollow Club)

Quail Hollow is a similarly challenging championship test of golf. It is closely matched to Bay Hill in ball-striking difficulty, requiring a large percentage of approaches above 175yds into the large and challenging bermudagrass-based greens.

Notable correlating form:

Jason Day:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st) / Wells Fargo (1^st)

Francesco Molinari:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st) / PGA Championship (2^nd)

Tyrrell Hatton:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Wells Fargo (3^rd)

Bryson DeChambeau:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Wells Fargo (4^th)

Wyndham Clark:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Wells Fargo (1^st)

Viktor Hovland:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Wells Fargo (3^rd)

Harris English:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Wells Fargo (3^rd)

Justin Rose:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 3^rd, 3^rd) / Wells Fargo (3^rd, 3^rd)

Lee Westwood:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Wells Fargo (4^th, 5^th)

Sungjae Im:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Wells Fargo (4^th, 8^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Wells Fargo (5^th)

Ryan Moore:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Wells Fargo (5^th, 6^th)

Joel Dahmen:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th) / Wells Fargo (2^nd)

Keith Mitchell:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th, 6^th) / Wells Fargo (3^rd, 8^th)

Max Homa:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 10^th) / Wells Fargo (1^st)

Byeong Hun An:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 10^th) / Wells Fargo (3^rd)

Memorial Tournament (Muirfield Village)

Muirfield Village is another major-like test where the best ball-strikers thrive. It has the second-lowest greens-in-regulation percentages on tour (behind Bay Hill) over the last six seasons, whilst shots above 175yds often accounts for close to/over 50% of approach distances for the week.

Notable correlating form:

Scottie Scheffler:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 1^st) / Memorial (1^st)

Bryson DeChambeau:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Memorial (1^st)

Marc Leishman:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 2^nd) / Memorial (5^th, 5^th)

Billy Horschel:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (1^st)

Viktor Hovland:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (1^st)

Justin Rose:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 3^rd, 3^rd) / Memorial (1^st, 2^nd, 2^nd)

Kevin Chappell:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (2^nd)

Kevin Na:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 4^th) / Memorial (2^nd)

Matt Fitzpatrick:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Memorial (3^rd, 5^th)

Patrick Cantlay:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Memorial (1^st, 1^st)

Ryan Moore:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Memorial (2^nd, 5^th)

Will Zalatoris:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Memorial (5^th)

Andrew Putnam:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 8^th) / Memorial (5^th)

Chris Kirk:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th, 8^th) / Memorial (4^th)

Sahith Theegala:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (6^th) / Memorial (5^th)

Byeong Hun An:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 10^th) / Memorial (2^nd)

Max Homa:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 10^th) / Memorial (5^th, 6^th)

Valspar Championship (Innisbrook Resort – Copperhead Course)

Back to Florida now and the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course looks a strong comp. Although more densely tree-lined, the fairways on this water-laden course predominantly dogleg and feature intelligent bunkering, making for a similarly demanding driving challenge to Bay Hill. Additionally, the long irons are absolutely key, with approaches from 175yds+ again accounting for around 50%.

Notable correlating form:

Kevin Na:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 4^th) / Valspar (2^nd)

Viktor Hovland:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Valspar (3^rd)

Henrik Stenson:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th) / Valspar (4^th, 7^th)

Wyndham Clark:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Valspar (5^th)

Tommy Fleetwood:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Valspar (3^rd)

Sungjae Im:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Valspar (4^th)

Troy Merritt:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd) / Valspar (6^th, 8^th)

Patrick Cantlay:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Valspar (2^nd)

Jason Kokrak:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 6^th) / Valspar (2^nd)

Ryan Moore:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Valspar (3^rd, 5^th, 5^th)

Sahith Theegala:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (6^th) / Valspar (7^th)

Davis Riley:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th) / Valspar (2^nd)

Houston Open (Memorial Park Golf Course)

Memorial Park is a flat, lengthy and fairly spacious parkland course, that has provided a strong all-round challenge since taking up hosting duties of the Houston Open in 2020. Rankings in both ball-striking and short-game difficulty are akin to what we see at Bay Hill, whilst we also see lots of approaches from 175yds+ into the large, sloping and subtly contoured bermudagrass-based greens.

Notable correlating form:

Scottie Scheffler:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 1^st) / Houston (2^nd, 2^nd)

Jason Kokrak:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 6^th) / Houston (1^st)

Joel Dahmen:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th) / Houston (5^th, 9^th)

Talor Gooch:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (7^th) / Houston (4^th)

Trey Mullinax:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th) / Houston (4^th)

Phoenix Open (TPC Scottsdale)

My final course this week is Phoenix Open host, TPC Scottsdale. This roomy venue has long been a favourite of strong drivers and although not quite as challenging into the large bermudagrass-based greens as Bay Hill, it possesses similar averages in short-game difficulty.

Notable correlating form:

Scottie Scheffler:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 1^st) / Phoenix (1^st, 1^st)

Matt Every:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (1^st, 1^st) / Phoenix (8^th, 9^th)

Charley Hoffman:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Phoenix (2^nd, 2^nd)

Kevin Na:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd, 4^th) / Phoenix (2^nd, 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th)

Harris English:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (2^nd) / Phoenix (3^rd)

Sungjae Im:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (3^rd, 3^rd) / Phoenix (6^th, 7^th)

Patrick Cantlay:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th) / Phoenix (2^nd)

Ryan Moore:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (4^th, 5^th) / Phoenix (4^th, 6^th, 6^th)

Danny Lee:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (5^th) / Phoenix (4^th)

Sahith Theegala:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (6^th) / Phoenix (3^rd, 5^th)

Byeong Hun An:

Arnold Palmer Invitational (8^th, 10^th) / Phoenix (6^th, 9^th)

THE FIELD

Our fourth Signature Event of the season has brought together another elite and limited 72-man field, which includes nine of the world’s top 10 and 23 of the top 25.

The field is of course headed by #1 Scottie Scheffler, and he is not only joined by #2 Rory McIlroy, but we also welcome back the third-best player in the world, Xander Schauffele, who returns after a nine-week absence due to a rib injury.

Scheffler is our defending champion this week and is one of only three former winners in attendance, alongside McIlroy (2018) and Jason Day (2016).

At the other end of the experience scale we have a stack of Bay Hill debutants in action, which includes each of the surprise winners in the last two weeks, Brian Campbell and Joe Highsmith.

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025 Odds

SELECTIONS

Market leaders (1/4 5 places): Scottie Scheffler 10/3, Rory McIlroy 8/1, Xander Schauffele 14/1, Ludvig Aberg 16/1, Collin Morikawa 20/1

Although there were many contenders along the way, Ludvig Aberg continued the trend of the very top players dominating these Signature Events in the Genesis Invitational three weeks ago. This again causes me to predominantly focus my attention near the top of the betting this week.

As a two-time winner of the event, it might be here that Scottie Scheffler gets his first win of 2025. He was excellent for most of the way at Torrey Pines on his latest start, closing with a 66 to finish 3^rd. That being said, his 76 in round three there was his single-worst round of golf since 2022 and is enough to tempt me into searching for value elsewhere.

I’m happy to watch on as Xander Schauffele returns from injury and while Rory McIlroy held some appeal at 8/1, it’s Collin Morikawa and the state of his long irons that caught my eye this week.

2.5 pts Collin Morikawa each-way (1/5 6 places) @ 22/1

We were on Morikawa in the last Signature Event, when he finished 17^th at Torrey Pines South in the Genesis Invitational. He never got into contention there, but it was a solid enough performance and saw him continue his decent start to the season, as he finished 2^nd in The Sentry and 17^th at Pebble Beach on his two prior starts.

The long game has appeared to be in fine shape across those starts, ranking 10^th in approach, 16^th in greens-in-regulation and 37^th off-the-tee. He’s been especially strong with the long irons, ranking 11^th from 200yds+ and with the short game looking sharp, there’s little to deter me here.

Morikawa debuted at Bay Hill as an amateur in 2018, finishing 64^th, then going on to finish 9^th on his first pro start in the event in 2020. He has disappointingly missed the cut on his last two starts but as a player possessing finishes of 1^st, 2^nd and 2^nd at Muirfield Village, I’m confident he has the game to best this layout.

2.5 pts Patrick Cantlay each-way (1/5 6 places) @ 22/1

Patrick Cantlay has been in great form at the start of this year, showing quality in all areas of his game. He now comes to a course at which he possesses a top 5 in just two visits and has every chance of recording a first win since 2022 this week.

Cantlay made his first start of the season in The Sentry, finishing 15^th and has since gone on to record two 5^th-place finishes in his next three starts, which came in The AmEx and last time out in the Genesis Invitational.

His irons have started to fire in the last two events, ranking top 10 at Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines, catching up to the rest of his game. He’s gaining strokes with each club and is especially hitting the ball well, ranking 2^nd in GIR. Alongside additional rankings of 10^th in par 5 scoring and 26^th in proximity from 200yds+, he has an appealing skillset for this challenge.

Cantlay only made his debut here in 2023 and produced an excellent ball-striking performance, ranking 4^th, to help him to a 4^th-place finish. He finished 36^th on his return in 2024, but having twice won at Muirfield Village, as well as finishing runner-up at the Valspar and in Phoenix, he has plenty of encouraging comp form that suggests he’s capable of reproducing, even bettering his strong debut effort.

1 pt Wyndham Clark each-way (1/5 6 places) @ 50/1

I did consider Will Zalatoris and Shane Lowry from the mid-range but it’s last year’s runner-up, Wyndham Clark that just gets the nod instead. He hasn’t quite got going yet this year, but he has shown quality through his bag and I’m banking on him putting it all together this week.

Clark finished 15^th in The Sentry on his first start of 2025 and though underwhelming on his two following starts, he’s looked much better in the last two, finishing 16^th in Phoenix and 31^st in the Genesis Invitational.

He’s struggling for consistency but there have been positives in most areas. It’s been particularly promising to see his long irons firing, as he ranks 19^th from 175-200yds and 42^nd from 200yds+ at this early point of the season. A key component to contending here.

Clark didn’t take to Bay Hill right away, finishing 68^th and missing the cut on his first two visits. He improved considerably in 2023, ranking 2^nd in approach on his way to a 34^th-place finish and then finished 2^nd to Scottie Scheffler last year. This was a result that came as no surprise due to his win at Quail Hollow the previous year, which gives me confidence he can go one better this week.

1 pt Nick Dunlap each-way (1/5 6 places) @ 150/1

Florida resident, Nick Dunlap produced one of his best performances of the season when we last saw him in the Genesis Invitational and possessing many of the necessary skills required to tackle Bay Hill, he looks worth a shot to cause a stir at a huge price.

Dunlap has had a solid start to this year, missing zero cuts and recording two top 20s across his six starts, which came courtesy of a 10^th-place finish in the Sony Open and a finish of 17^th at Torrey Pines on his latest start.

The driver has been somewhat of a problem for this usually lengthy hitter, but he has made up for this in all other areas. He ranks 29^th in scrambling 30^th in putting and 48^th in approach; looking especially strong from 175-200yds, a range in which he ranks 10^th on tour.

Dunlap was 48^th on his debut here last year, doing all of his best work in the final round with a closing 71. He has looked a player well at home on these difficult, major championship-like layouts, finishing 11^th in Houston, 12^th in the Memorial Tournament and 24^th in the Wells Fargo on his debuts in those respective events last year. Something that should stand him in good stead in Florida this week.