Wolves vs Southampton Prediction: 11th time lucky for the Old Gold

Wolverhampton Wanderers are still searching for their first Premier League win of the season heading into gameweek 11 this weekend. Their opponents at Molineux on Saturday (15:00), Southampton, ended their winless run in the competition last time out with a late 1-0 victory over Everton.

Below is my Wolves vs Southampton prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this early six-pointer.

Team News

Yerson Mosquera, Boubacar Traore, Enso Gonzalez, Leon Chiwome and Sasa Kaljdzic are still out injured for the hosts, while Hwang Hee-chan is a doubt after missing Wolves' last three games.

On a more positive note, Sam Johnstone should return to the squad after injury and illness kept him for the same number of matches.

Captain Mario Lemina came off at half-time in Wolves' 2-2 draw at Brighton & Hove Albion on October 26 and was restricted to a half-hour substitute appearance in the 2-2 with Crystal Palace seven days later, but the Gabon international is in line to return to the starting XI on Saturday, possibly in place of Tommy Doyle.

Football Odds

Southampton are unable to call upon the services of Gavin Bazunu, Will Smallbone, or Ross Stewart, while Adam Lallana and Ryan Fraser are both injury doubts, the former having been withdrawn at half-time last weekend and the latter missing the match altogether.

Joe Aribo came on for Lallana against the Toffees and is in line to replace the 36-year-old in Russell Martin's starting XI.

Wolves vs Southampton Odds

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Wolves are 19/20 to secure a first victory of the Premier League season on Saturday, giving Gary O'Neil's side an implied win probability of 51.3%, while Southampton are 11/4, or a 26.% chance, to make it back-to-back triumphs.

A draw is also priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Wolves duo Matheus Cunha and Jorgen Strand Larsen (both 6/4) head the anytime goalscorer market, with Paul Onuachu (21/10) and Adam Armstrong (11/5) shortest-priced for the visitors.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 1.5 - Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals @ 5/4

It has to be this weekend, doesn't it?

Wolves have failed in 10 previous attempts to win a Premier League game this season, but they've drawn their last two - both by 2-2 scorelines - against sides that finished in the top 11 in 2023/24, so they look to be inching closer to their first victory of the campaign.

On paper, this is their easiest match of the season. Southampton only achieved promotion to the Premier League via the play-offs in May and are currently 19th, just a single point ahead of Wolves, despite beating Everton last weekend. Prior to that triumph over the Toffees, Martin's side had picked up just one point from their first nine games.

Wolves (14) have scored exactly double the amount of goals Southampton (seven) have struck in the top flight this term with only Brentford (19) netting more in the bottom half.

It's in defence where the Old Gold have had issues, shipping a league-high 27 goals - eight more than Southampton.

However, the Saints are the division's lowest scorers with just seven strikes to their name so far, and the south-coast side are one of just two clubs - alongside Brentford - not to have picked up a point on their travels, despite playing five games away from home.

Wolves have lost four of their five league matches at Molineux but all four defeats came against teams that finished in the top seven last season - Chelsea (2-6), Newcastle United (1-2), Liverpool (1-2), and Manchester City (1-2).

Southampton represent ideal opposition to face at home in a bid to break their Premier League curse so far this term, and O'Neil's charges have shown enough recently to convince me to back them for all three points on Saturday.

I'm also adding in over 1.5 total goals as there have been at least two strikes in all 10 of the Old Gold's Premier League games, while three of Southampton's last four away outings in the league have seen over 3.5 total goals.

Wolves have also scored twice in back-to-back matches, and three times in their last four.

Player to Receive a Card - Rayan Ait-Nouri (WOL) @ 100/30

Wolves' left wing-back Rayan Ait-Nouri is walking a disciplinary tightrope after receiving four yellow cards in his first 10 Premier League games this season. A fifth before the 19-match threshold would incur a one-game ban, and unfortunately for the Algerian, I think a fifth booking could arrive on Saturday and rule him out of his side's trip to Fulham on November 23.

Ait-Nouri's first caution of the campaign came in the August 25 hammering at the hands of Chelsea and he received another booking in Wolves' next league game at Molineux on September 15, another defeat, this time to Newcastle.

The 23-year-old then worked his way into the referee's notebook in the 3-1 loss at Aston Villa six days later before being handed his latest yellow in the draw with Brighton on October 26.

Ait-Nouri is averaging 1.4 fouls per game in the Premier League this season, so there's no surprise that he's been racking up the cards. He was shown seven yellows in the top flight last term and is well on the way to beating that total in 2024/25.

The 14-cap Algeria international is likely to be in direct contact on Saturday with Southampton's right wing-back Kyle Walker-Peters, who is being fouled an average of 1.9 times per game in the league.

Tyler Dibling, the Saints' precocious young winger, is another potential starter at Molineux, and the tricky 18-year-old is being fouled an average of 1.7 times per game. Even if the teenager doesn't start, he's likely to come on at some stage on the right wing, and that could spell trouble for a tiring Ait-Nouri, who may be forced to haul him down, especially if Wolves are hanging onto a result.

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