Western United vs Melbourne City Prediction: Tarneit team to earn bragging rights in first leg

Western United got the job done in their Elimination Final last Friday, beating Adelaide United 3-2 at Ironbark Fields, although they had to overcome an early deficit after Luka Jovanovic put the Reds ahead in the third minute, while Stefan Mauk's 79th-minute strike set up a nervy ending.

Nevertheless, John Aloisi's side booked their spot in the Australian A-League Men's play-offs, where they will face Premiership runners-up Melbourne City over two legs. The first leg comes from AAMI Park on Friday (10:35, TNT Sports 2), and ahead of the game, you can check out my Western United vs Melbourne City predictions below, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Aloisi has declared star striker Noah Botic fit for their semi-final first leg against Melbourne City, despite the 23-year-old feeling something in his quad during his side's Elimination Final win.

"We had to take care of him a little bit this week because there was, or there is, something there, but it's not major so he's available," said Aloisi.

"He did obviously feel something, but it wasn't a tear or anything like that, that's too major."

However, Western United defender James Donachie was forced off in the 13th minute against Adelaide United with an adductor strain, and the 32-year-old has been ruled out of Friday's first leg.

Tate Russell replaced Donachie in the Elimination Final, and the 25-year-old will be called upon this week to partner Dylan Leonard at centre-back.

Youngsters Kane Vidmar, Charbel Shamoon and Riley Foxe have all been named in Aloisi's 20-man extended squad, which will be whittled down to 18 on matchday.

Football Odds

Aloisi must also decide whether to restore Hiroshi Ibusuki to the starting XI.

The Japanese striker scored 10 times in the regular ALM season but missed his side's final two games due to injury. He returned as a late substitute against the Reds last week, though.

Michael Ruhs has started United's last three games up top, alongside top scorer Botic, and the 22-year-old was on target in a 4-2 victory over Auckland on May 3, but he could drop down to the bench if Ibusuki is fit enough to begin the match.

Samuel Souprayen (calf), Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles), Andrew Nabbout, Jayden Necovski and James Nieuwenhuizen (all knee) are still in the Melbourne City treatment room, while Nathaniel Atkinson (calf) is in Friday's extended squad but is rated as 50/50 by Aurelio Vidmar.

The Melbourne City head coach told reporters earlier this week: "If it's not this week he should be fine for the following week."

Callum Talbot is likely to replace Atkinson at right-back if the Australia international misses out, while Socceroos veteran Mathew Leckie, who returned from his latest injury in the 5-1 thrashing of Sydney FC on May 3, could get minutes from the bench.

"He's going to get time for sure on the pitch at some stage. Let's see where it goes," Vidmar said.

"Hopefully, touch wood nothing happens and he's able to survive the next three weeks. Because with him we're a much better team."

Influential midfielder Steven Ugarkovic, who missed the final two games of the season due to a hamstring issue, is back in the reckoning, while young defender Harry Shillington has been promoted to City's extended squad.

Western United vs Melbourne City Odds

Western United have lost their last four meetings with Melbourne City, including both in the regular 2024/25 campaign. Those results are sure to have contributed to their price of 7/4 to win on Friday, implying a 36.4% probability of success. The visitors, meanwhile, are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to make it five wins on the spin against the Tarneit team.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 1/2, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

Match Result - Western United @ 7/4

If Western United want to make the play-off final against either Auckland FC or Melbourne Victory, they will know that winning their semi-final 'home leg' against Melbourne City is ultra important.

City boasted the second-best home record in the regular season, collecting 26 points from 13 games (W8, D2, L3), inferior only to champions Auckland (28). Vidmar's side started the campaign off slowly at AAMI Park, failing to win any of their first three games (D1, L2), before really clicking into gear in the new year. They won their first five home matches of 2025 and ended the season on a four-game unbeaten streak in Melbourne (W3, D1), so a tough test awaits Western United next week.

Aloisi's charges aren't too shabby themselves on home soil, though, claiming 24 points in the regular season at Ironbark Fields before beating Adelaide United there in their Elimination Final to record a sixth successive victory in Tarneit, although the venue change to City's AAMI Park home does put United at a slight disadvantage in this tie.

City beat United at Ironbark Fields on November 4, but only by a single goal, scored in the 49th minute by Nabbout, who won't be featuring on Friday, and it's fair to say a very different Western side will be taking to the field this time around. That defeat to City was the third game in a four-match winless run to kick the campaign off, and they only won one of their first seven before taking maximum points in 13 of their next 19 fixtures.

There's an argument to be made that City may be fresher after enjoying nearly two weeks off, but there's also the danger that they could be a little rusty after no competitive action in that time, while United kept sharp and have still had a week off to prepare for this first leg.

Whether they can win the tie, I'm not sure at this stage, but certainly, a victory in the first leg is well within Western's grasp.

Anytime Goalscorer - Noah Botic (WUN) @ 13/8

Botic was just one goal shy of sharing the 2024/25 ALM Golden Boot with Sydney FC's Adrian Segecic and Adelaide United's Archie Goodwin, who each struck 13 times in the regular season.

While the Sydney-born forward may have missed out on that award, it was he who was earning all the adulation last week as he bagged a brace in his side's Elimination Final, and it was his shot that deflected in off Bart Vriends for their equaliser.

Now, Botic goes in search of a goal, at least, in the first leg of Western's play-off semi-final tie with City on Friday.

The Australian attacker doesn't boast the best goalscoring record against the Melbourne club, netting just once in five appearances against them, but he's a player that appears to be maturing with each game that comes, and three goals in his last two outings, the first of which was against Premiership champions Auckland, should stand him in good stead heading into this tie.

At 13/8, he's worth taking on to carry on his good form this week.

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