Western United vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction: Aloisi’s side to end successful January on a high

There's midweek action from the Australian A-League Men's (08:00, TNT Sports 1) on Wednesday as Western United host Central Coast Mariners at Ironbark Fields in Melbourne. United haven't played since January 17 but should arrive into this contest full of confidence having won six of their last seven games, while the Mariners are in solid form having picked up seven points from four matches this calendar year.

Below is my Western United vs Central Coast Mariners prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Back-up goalkeeper Thomas Heward-Belle, who featured 22 times for Western United last season but was rooted to the bench for their first 14 games this term, playing understudy to Matthew Sutton, left the club last week for Japanese J2 League club Montedio Yamagata. Consequently, 19-year-old Michael Vonja has been called up for Wednesday's match.

James York and Jake Najdovski are also part of John Aloisi's extended squad, which will be cut by two on matchday.

Football Odds

Central Coast Mariners are still without injured quintet Brad Tapp, Miguel Di Pizio (both knee), Alfie McCalmont, Nicholas Duarte and Lucas Mauragis (all unspecified).

However, club captain Trent Sainsbury is back available after missing last Saturday's goalless draw with Wellington Phoenix.

Western United vs Central Coast Mariners Odds

This hasn't been a happy fixture for Western United over the last few years as the Tarneit team have failed to win any of the last seven head-to-heads, suffering six defeats since beating the Mariners 1-0 in April 2021. Yet, United's fine form has them as the 4/5 favourites on Wednesday, implying a win probability of 55.6%, while their visitors are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to pick up a third victory in the last five on their travels.

In 12 meetings between the two teams, there has only ever been one draw - in April 2022 (2-2) - but you can back a rare stalemate at 5/2 in midweek.

United's seven-goal top scorer this season, Hiroshi Ibusuki, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 11/8, followed by teammate and six-goal marksman Noah Botic (8/5), with Alou Kuol (23/10) first up for the Mariners.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 2.5 - Western United & Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/5

The Mariners have somewhat recovered from a shaky start to the season, losing just one of their last five games, despite playing at home only once in that period. However, the first of those victories came on January 3 away at bottom club Brisbane Roar (1-3), who only picked up their first three points of the 2024/25 campaign 15 days later, and the second on January 17 away at Western Sydney Wanderers (also 1-3), who are now eighth and have won just one of their last five matches.

On current form, Western United should pose a much tougher test than the Mariners have faced in recent weeks, and avoiding defeat for a third successive games could be beyond Jackson's side.

Only Melbourne City (0-2) have taken points off Western United in the last seven games with Aloisi's side claiming 18 points from the last 21 on offer. A seventh victory in eight - and third on the trot - would lift the Tarneit team into third ahead of the weekend's fixtures, just one point behind second-place Adelaide United and two behind ALM leaders Auckland.

United have been scoring for fun since mid-December, hitting Sydney, Auckland and Melbourne Victory for four and netting three past Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets to record 19 goals in their last seven outings - an average of 2.7 per game. They've also conceded 11 times in that run, meaning their last seven matches are averaging 4.3 total goals per game.

Western United to win and over 2.5 total goals has been a winner six times this season while all four of the Mariners' league defeats have seen at least three goals scored and the last three of those have seen the opposition net four goals.

A home victory and over 2.5 total goals looks the best bet at 8/5 on Wednesday.

Price Boosts - Western United Over 2.5 Goals & Western United Over 6.5 Corners @ 5/1 6/1

United have scored at least three goals in six of their last 10 games including their previous two against Melbourne Victory and Newcastle Jets while the Mariners shipped four at Sydney FC earlier this month (January 11) and have also conceded at least three against Wellington Phoenix (0-3), Adelaide United (0-4) and Auckland (1-4).

Meanwhile, Wednesday's hosts have taken at least seven corners in five of their last six games, winning 12, eight, seven, seven, two and eight against Newcastle Jets, Melbourne Victory, Melbourne City, Perth Glory, Brisbane Roar and Auckland respectively.

The Mariners have conceded over 6.5 corners on four occasions in the ALM this season and with United expected to be on top throughout, I can see Jackson's side give their fair share away on Wednesday to help land this price boost.

Offers

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