Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Prediction: City to do the double over New Zealanders

Wellington Phoenix suffered a humiliating 6-1 defeat to Auckland last Saturday in the third and final 'New Zealand derby' of the regular 2024/25 Australian A-League Men's season. Nix head coach Giancarlo Italiano will, therefore, be looking for a big response from his side on Friday (06:30, TNT Sports 1) when Melbourne City provide the opposition at Sky Stadium.

Aurelio Vidmar's men were involved in their own derby last weekend, drawing 2-2 with Melbourne Victory, and they arrive into this contest in the New Zealand capital nine points ahead of their hosts. Below are my Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Italiano has a near full-strength squad to work with this week; club captain Alex Rufer is edging closer to returning to the starting XI having made two appearances off the bench after recovering from glandular fever.

“We’ll have to see how he recovers from training today. It’s been a process with him," said Italiano.

“I don’t want him to relapse. There’s a bit of a risk that if we don’t manage him well that he could go backwards, and for us he’s a vital player.

“I’d love him to start…but that’s a management issue.”

Marco Rojas has also recently returned from a lengthy absence, making a shock comeback from injury in last weekend's hammering at Go Media Stadium, but starting him on Friday would be "high risk", according to Italiano.

“I think if we can build him to 30-35 and then the next week I can give him a little bit more and then hopefully after the international break even more time.”

New signing Chico Geraldes made his Wellington debut last Saturday, playing the full 90 minutes, but he is also having to be managed.

Italiano is boosted by the returns of Paulo Retre and Sam Sutton, who were injured (calf) and suspended respectively for the New Zealand derby.

However, Stefan Colakovski (knee) and Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues (knock) remain in the Wellington treatment room.

Football Odds

Andrew Nabbout, Alessandro Lopane, Yonatan Cohen, Jayden Necovski (all knee), Steven Ugarkovic (hamstring) and Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles) remain in the Melbourne City treatment room, while Medin Memeti is still on international duty with the Young Socceroos at the AFC U20 Asian Cup in China.

Andreas Kuen, who missed six games with a hamstring injury, made his return to the side in last Saturday's Melbourne derby, starting and lasting 76 minutes at AAMI Park.

Harry Shillington and Ben Mazzeo have been promoted to the Men’s squad for the trip to New Zealand.

Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City Odds

Wellington have lost back-to-back games and haven't won at home since December 28. The Nix are 3/1 on Friday to claim a vital victory in their quest for a top-six place, implying a win probability of 25%, while Melbourne City are 8/11, or a 57.9% chance, to triumph on their travels for the first time since December 6.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Wellington centre-forward Kosta Barbarouses is joint-favourite in the anytime goalscorer market alongside City teenager Max Caputo (both 8/5).

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/6

My tip of under 2.5 goals in last week's New Zealand derby went down the pan before half-time in Auckland as the Black Knights took a 3-0 lead before winning the second half 3-1 to make it 6-1 by the full-time whistle.

Undeterred, I'm backing the selection again as Melbourne City provide the opposition at Sky Stadium.

Like last Saturday's tip, there is a lot of logic to support this pick.

Melbourne City top the ALM under 2.5 goals table this season with 65 per cent (11) of their 17 games ending with two or fewer strikes; Wellington and Auckland (both 53 per cent) are joint second.

Five of the Nix's eight matches this calendar year, the first a 2-0 defeat to City on January 3, have gone under 2.5 goals, and it's six in eight for Vidmar's side in 2025.

Furthermore, the last three head-to-heads between these teams have seen two or fewer goals with the first two in that sequence ending in a 1-0 scoreline.

At risk of having my pants pulled down again, under 2.5 goals looks a great shout here at just under EVS.

Correct Score - Melbourne City 0-1 @ 6/1

At the price offered, it may be worth a little flutter on the visitors edging this contest by a goal to nil.

City have won eight ALM games so far this season, keeping a clean sheet in seven of those victories, and half (four) have finished 1-0 in their favour, the latest at home to Perth Glory on February 15.

Vidmar's charges have also lost 1-0 twice, meaning there has been just a single goal scored in 35.3 per cent (six) of their league outings in 24/25.

Wellington, meanwhile, have failed to score in three of their eight ALM defeats this term, including against City at AAMI Park earlier this year, and their last match against a Melbourne club, Victory, saw them fall to a 1-0 loss on Valentine's Day.

The Nix and City exchanged 1-0 scorelines last season with both triumphing on home soil, but the New Zealanders are noticeably weaker at Sky Stadium this season, winning just two of their nine fixtures there in the current campaign.

This could be a scrappy affair in the capital but I'm backing the superior quality in City's attack to shine through here, with a 1-0 win for the visitors appealing at 6/1.

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