Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction: Both sides on target after big wins last time out

Last season's top two in the Australian A-League Men's, Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners, are enduring poor campaigns by their 2023/24 standards, sitting ninth and 10th, respectively. Both sides are on 17 points after 13 games played, although there was a big gap between the clubs in November's reverse fixture as the Nix won 3-0 in Gosford.

Below is my Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Saturday's clash at Sky Stadium (04:00, TNT Sports 1).

Team News

Wellington Phoenix have seen three first-team players depart this month; Oskar van Hattum has joined League of Ireland side Sligo Rovers, Mo Al-Taay was released from his contract to allow him to return home to his family in Sydney, and veteran forward David Ball's contract was terminated.

Giancarlo Italiano is expected to make several signings to boost an ailing squad, but there will be no new faces in time for Saturday's game.

Matt Sheridan is back in the reckoning, though, after observing concussion protocol in Monday's 2-1 win at Macarthur.

Football Odds

Central Coast Mariners signed 19-year-old forward Abdul Faisal from Perth Glory earlier this week and the teenager goes straight into Mark Jackson's squad for Saturday's game. 16-year-old Joeys attacker Logan Sambrook who, at the start of the month, joined the club on a scholarship deal until at least the end of the 2025/26 season, is also in line to make his debut this weekend.

Noah Smith, Alfie McCalmont and Will Wilson are all ruled out for the Mariners, however.

Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners Odds

Despite a convincing win in Gosford last month, Wellington Phoenix are slight underdogs on Saturday with odds of 8/5 implying a 38.5% probability. Central Coast Mariners, meanwhile, are 6/4, or a 40% chance, to collect all three points in the New Zealand capital for the first time since April 2022.

The sides played out a goalless draw in their last meeting at Sky Stadium last February and it's 21/10 for another stalemate on Saturday, and 17/2 for another 0-0.

Phoenix forward Kosta Barbarouses, whose strike against Macarthur on Monday saw him become just the fourth player in ALM history to score 100 goals in the competition, is 6/4 favourite to net anytime, with Alou Kuol, who opened the scoring in the Mariners' 3-1 win at Western Sydney Wanders last Friday, first up for the visitors at 11/5.

Both Teams to Score - Yes @ 8/11

Only one of three meetings between the two sides in 2024 saw both teams score, a 2-1 win for the Mariners in Gosford last April, while only Melbourne City, Perth Glory (both five) and Auckland (four) have been involved in fewer games without both teams scoring than the Nix this season, but the form is strong for BTTS - Yes on Saturday.

Both teams have scored in six of Wellington's last eight games including three of their last four at home while it's eight in the last nine for the Mariners who have seen both teams hit the back of the net in six successive matches dating back to before Christmas. Jackson's side are fifth in the ALM BTTS table with 69 per cent (nine) of their 13 league contests finishing with at least one goal on either side, boosted massively by both teams scoring in all six of their away trips - the only club holding a 100 per cent record in that category.

The two teams are coming off the back of morale-boosting victories where they scored multiple goals - two in the case of Wellington, and three for the Mariners - and Saturday's visitors to Sky Stadium have struck three times in two of their three travel games this year, so I see no reason for either side to be nervous in front of goal this weekend.

You're never likely to get crazy odds just on backing both teams to score in an ALM match, but by the division's standards, 8/11 is pretty high, and considering the aforementioned statistics and the positive results recently attained by the pair, it's a market worth visiting here, in my opinion.

First Goal Time (10 Minute Intervals) - 11-20 @ 4/1

There have been plenty of early goals in games involving the Nix and the Mariners, so backing the first goal on Saturday to be struck between the 11th and 20th minute could be an interesting angle to take.

It's actually the most goal-laden 10-minute period for the Mariners who have scored three times between the 11th and 20th minute but conceded five times in that interval.

By contrast, it's a quiet 10-minute interval for the Nix, who have scored once and conceded just once in that period, but they were breached between those minutes last time out at Campbelltown Stadium as Macarthur midfielder Jake Hollman opened the scoring in the 16th minute for the Bulls. It was the first time this season that Italiano's side had been breached between the 11th and 20th minute but they've shipped five goals in the first 10 minutes of games - more than in any other 10-minute interval, showing that they can be got at early doors.

November's head-to-head between the Nix and Mariners, meanwhile, saw the first goal struck in the 16th minute as Japanese midfielder Hideki Ishige put one past the home side's 18-year-old shot-stopper Dylan Peraic-Cullen.

The opening effort in the 1-1 draw between the two clubs in February 2023 was scored by James McGarry in the 12th minute, meaning the above selection has landed in half (two) of the last four meetings.

At 4/1, it could be a market worth considering at Sky Stadium.

Offers

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