Weekend Serie A Predictions: Best Bets for the Games this Weekend

We have passed the final international break of the year and what better time to welcome in our new Serie A writer for the season?

Daniele Fisichella will be here twice each gameweek, he will preview the biggest match of the week and also a second column, picking out a selection of his Best Bets for the round of games.

He'll have an in-depth look at the top-of-the-table clash between Juventus and Inter Milan closer to game time but before that, he picks out three bets from the rest of the schedule...

Italian football lovers can rejoice as Serie A returns after Luciano Spalletti’s side earned (only just…and yes, Cristante’s foul on Mudryk was a stonewall penalty) their qualification to Euro 2024.

This season there will be no Christmas break either as Italy’s top flight enters its crucial stage. Matchday 13 presents the clash between the top two teams, Juventus and Inter Milan on Sunday night, which could be an opportunity for other sides to re-enter the title race.

• Can Walter Mazzarri cure Napoli?
• Inconsistent Rossoneri face La Viola
• Mou need a reaction after lacklustre derby

Atalanta vs Napoli (Saturday, 17:00)

The champions have already amassed a 10 points gap from leaders Inter Milan and, so far, looked like a shadow of the team that dominated Serie A last year. Before the international break president Aurelio De Laurentis decided to sack Rudi Garcia and recall, surprisingly, Walter Mazzarri, who managed the Partenopei from 2009 to 2013.

The former Watford boss has a tricky task in hand: restore the players’ confidence and reignite their creativity. Napoli have been much better on the road (14 points) than at the Maradona (only seven point and no wins in the Champions League either) but can’t afford to lose in Bergamo, as a defeat might see them dropping down to eight in the table.

The good news is that Khvicha Kvaratskhelia seems to have found again his shooting boots (he scored three goals in four days with Georgia) and last year’s top goal scorer Victor Oshimen is expected to be at least the bench after a six-weeks absence.

Atalanta are an extremely tough and organised side, especially at home where they only conceded two goals so far in their 2-1 defeat to Inter Milan.

The hosts are negotiating Serie A and Europa League very well and will also be boosted by the return to fitness of De Katelaere, Scalvini and Kolasinac.

Napoli have only kept four clean sheets so far, while Atalanta is renowned for their attacking prowess: it could be a good idea to combine the over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with a ‘Both teams to score’ pick at 5/4.

AC Milan vs Fiorentina (Saturday, 19:45)

After their Champions League success against Paris Saint-Germain many would have expected AC Milan to be galvanized and go back to winning ways domestically. Yet, once again, they dropped points against a lesser team (Lecce), as they squandered a two goals lead for the second Serie A away game in a row.

The Rossoneri are without a win since the 7th of October (1-0 away to Genoa, in rather fortuitous circumstances) and have only collected two points in their last four matches: only Verona (zero points) have done worse than them.

Such inconsistency is making the club very nervous, the rumours of Stefano Pioli being replaced have not completely gone away and this rubs off on to the players: Olivier Giroud was sent off against Lecce becoming the fourth AC Milan player to receive a red card this season.

The hosts will also be without Rafael Leao (injured) so the game on Saturday will be a test for some of AC Milan new signings, like Samuel Chukwueze, Noah Okafor and Luka Jovíc, who haven’t yet left their mark.

No doubt Fiorentina will fancy their chances at San Siro, they’re only three points behind AC Milan and, as usual, will play with no fear.

La Viola has recently won 3-1 in Naples but have also lost three games against top sides (Inter, Lazio and Juventus) without scoring. A double chance here (Draw or Fiorentina) pays 5/6.

Roma vs Udinese (Sunday, 17:00)

If you can’t win, try to not lose. Roma followed this motto in the derby against Lazio before the break: a lacklustre performance in a drab scoreless draw where neither side looked like they had enough quality to grab the three points. Under José Mourinho Roma have a clear problem to get the better of top teams in Italy: they’ve only won five of the 27 games they played against Milan, Juventus, Lazio, Inter Milan, Napoli and Atalanta since 2021.

In contrast against struggling sides, and Udinese, who have been weakened by the summer transfers, belong to this category, the Giallorossi normally manage to do the job at the Stadio Olimpico: in the current campaign they’ve beaten Empoli, Frosinone, Monza and Lecce as well as Servette and Slavia Prague in the Europa League.

Unfortunately for Roma the gamble on the physical conditions of some of their key players (Renato Sanches, Chris Smalling, Leonardo Spinazzola and above all their best player, Paulo Dybala) so far has not paid off.

However, the return of Lorenzo Pellegrini and the excellent form of Romelu Lukaku (he’s 6/5 to score anytime), who netted a poker for Belgium against Azerbaijan, should be enough to see them achieve three points.

Udinese, whose fortunes have just marginally improved since replacing manager Andrea Sottil with Gabriele Cioffi (another return!), are ‘masters of draws’: eight this season, and 21 since 2022/2023. No other team in Europe’s top five leagues has shared the spoils as often as them.

The visitors are really struggling to score: their Expected Goals (xG) are +9.62 compared to eight they actually got and only three out of their 12 games have ended in an over 2.5 goals.

It could be a low scoring encounter, but why not going for Roma to score over 1.5 goals at 4/5 against a side that has only kept four clean sheets so far.

You can check out all of the Football Betting Tips from all the writers here at Betfred Insights on our main Football page...