La Liga Betting Tips: Best Bets from Gameweek 17

Gameweek 17 in La Liga is fast approaching and our Spanish Football expert has cast his eye across the various markets to pick out his best three bets from the games.

Last week he went one for three with a 13/8 winner in this column and he's looking to go better this time around...

After Girona’s stunning victory at Barcelona last weekend, La Liga 2023/24 is shaping up to be one of the most interesting in many years. The surprise leaders have a favourable home fixture on Monday but there are some really big games before that.

In-form Athletic Bilbao are priced in as favourites at home to title hopefuls Atletico Madrid while after a dismal week, there’s real pressure on Barca who travel to Valencia. Real Betis and Real Sociedad face off on Sunday after big European games while under-fire Sevilla boss Diego Alonso has an awkward home fixture against a Getafe side that is tough to beat.

Celta Vigo vs Granada (Saturday 13:00)

This is a massive relegation six pointer between two teams who have both won just once in 16 league outings this season.

To say Rafa Benitez’s return to Spanish football is not going well would be a massive understatement. The former Liverpool boss is growing more frustrated with each passing week with a combination of VAR controversy and his own team’s inability to convert chances into goals leaving his side languishing in the relegation zone.

They had 26 attempts to the two of ten-man Cadiz in their most recent home game. A Final Score of 1-1 summed up their season. Perhaps due to a lack of viable alternatives, Benitez has largely stayed loyal to his starting eleven, although he did drop veteran forward Iago Aspas on Monday night with the Celta legend having scored just once in La Liga since March.

His replacement, €12m summer signing Anastasios Douvikas, was largely anonymous in the goalless draw at Rayo Vallecano and they once again head into a home game as clear favourites but with doubts as to where their goals are going to come from.

Unlike the Celta board which continues to back Benitez, Granada did make a managerial change last month with attack-minded Paco Lopez dismissed and the seemingly much more conservative Alexander Medina arriving.

The Uruguayan was dealt a very tough start, but will probably be content with one point and only three goals conceded from games against Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao. He has changed the system by bringing two holding midfielders into the team and it’s giving what was a very shaky back four a bit more protection.

With the pace of the electric Bryan Zaragoza, who only last week agreed a summer move to Bayern Munich, Granada do have one real danger man who can be an outlet as they most likely look to play on the break in this game. I’m backing Draw or Granada Double Chance at 23/20.

Sevilla vs Getafe (Saturday 17:30)

So far, Sevilla’s 2023/24 season has been much like their 2022/23 season. As was the case last year, they sacked a Europa League winning coach in early October, only for things to get worse under new management with the Andalusians again dropping into an unlikely relegation battle.

Diego Alonso is yet to win a league game but unlike last year, there is no pathway to saving their season in their favourite European competition after Sevilla finished rock bottom of their Champions League group with a 2-1 defeat to Lens on Tuesday to exit Europe altogether.

The only matches that Alonso has won as Sevilla boss have come against genuine minnows in the Copa del Rey and it’s a bit surprising that he has even made it this far.

It’s fair to say that the former Uruguay boss needs a win here, but Getafe are not the kind of team you want to face in that situation. They are a physical team that will gladly defend in numbers and slow the game down if it helps them get a result.

It’s a formula that worked wonders during Jose Bordalas’ first spell at the club between 2016 and 2021 and it’s one that’s working again following his return earlier this year. They’re up to 9th after a deserved win against Valencia last Friday in a predictably bad-tempered match that produced three red cards.

It’s just one defeat in 12 matches in all competitions and they’ve only lost by more than a single goal on one occasion this term. Up against a Sevilla team that can’t buy a win under their new boss, I’m backing Draw or Getafe Double Chance at 10/11 here.

Girona vs Alaves (Monday 20:00)

Girona’s first ever league victory over Barcelona last Sunday and particularly the manner it was achieved in, has removed all doubts about their status as potential title candidates.

They blew their Catalan rivals away with some brilliant football in an end-to-end game, scoring four goals to return to the top of the table.

A week on, Michel’s team are at home to newly promoted opposition, in a game which could certainly be placed in the banana skin category. With no European football, a clear advantage on their title rivals, Girona have had a week to come back down to earth and focus on what in theory should be the considerably simpler task of beating Alaves at home.

It’s a mission that is made easier by the defensive selection problems the visitors are experiencing. Alaves are missing centre-backs Abdel Abqar and Aleksandar Sedlar which may leave Ruben Duarte, primarily a left-back, needing to fill in.

With goals coming from all over the team and even back-up striker Cristhian Stuani having come off the bench to score three in their last two games, Girona should be able to find ways to breach the visiting defence.

However Alaves will carry a threat of their own with Samuel Omorodion one of the form strikers in the league right now. He’s only 19 but he’s already a tall and very powerful forward who will be a real handful for Girona centre-backs Eric Garcia and Daley Blind, neither of whom will be a match for Omorodion in the air.

While they’re not exactly a free-scoring team, Alaves have managed to get on the scoresheet in narrow defeats away to Barcelona and Atletico Madrid already this season and I’m backing Girona and Both Teams to Score at 11/5 in this one.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...