Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Serie A for MD33

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella was one corner away from a profitable week last time out for his Best Bets column but he's looking to have a good run as we head towards the end of the Serie A season.

For his Weekend Football Betting Tips this week, he has a game a day from Friday through Sunday that have caught his eye...

While we have to wait till next Monday to know if Inter are going to be crowned champions (look out for my in-depth preview of the Milan derby), there are a couple of juicy games to focus on this weekend.

Starting on Friday with Lazio’s trip to Marassi, one of the places where top sides have struggled the most to get points from this season.

On Saturday Napoli, who continue to ship a lot of goals, visit Empoli who are in desperate needs for three points and, on Sunday evening, Monza are targeting another prestigious win in a regional derby.

Genoa vs Lazio (Friday, time: 17:30)

The hosts are virtually saved since a couple of weeks but are finishing the season strongly.

Genoa have only lost two (against Atalanta and Inter) of their last 17 games and have scored in eight of the last nine.

Alberto Gilardino has done an impressive job in his debut season in Serie A making Il Grifone an extremely organised side.

As a newly promoted team Genoa have achieved the second highest points tally (39) in their history, only three less than in 2007/2008 (42 points) when they finished the campaign in tenth place.

At Marassi they’ve avoided defeat against top sides such as Napoli, Inter, Roma and Torino but they’ve only won two of the last nine matches.

Despite Albert Gudmndsson scoring 13 goals this season, Genoa have only netted twenty times in front of their crowd (less than the other two clubs promoted from Serie B, Cagliari and Frosinone) as nine of their home matches have produced less than three goals.

Since Maurizio Sarri’s departure Lazio have won three of the last four in Serie A, as many as they did in the previous nine games.

However the lack of defensive solidity continues to be a problem for the Biancocelesti who have only kept two clean sheets in the last 11 games.

Despite having the league’s fifth best away attack (22 goals), Lazio have been defeated already eight times on the road where they’ve conceded two goals or more in seven occasions.

Both teams to score has been a winning bet in five of the last seven meetings between this pair as well as in seven of Genoa’s last nine home games and it pays out at Even money (1/1).

Empoli vs Napoli (Saturday, time: 17:00)

Since March Empoli are the team that has lost more games (five) and failed to score more times (also fine) than any other side in Serie A.

Such a poor form has left the Tuscan side only one point above the drop and in need of a success against last year’s champions.

In their last match at the ‘Castellani’ Empoli were lucky to obtain a success against Torino, in fact they scored three times but their xG was just 0.49.

Davide Nicola’s men performed better at the weekend against Lecce when they had a goal disallowed and conceded in the last minute.

The hosts haven’t won back-to-back games since May 2023 and despite Napoli’s poor form (only one win in the last five) achieving three points on Saturday looks like a very difficult task.

Napoli’s season has been turbulent to say the least but their away league record remains decent (seven wins and 26 goals scored, Italy’s third best tally).

One of the main problem for the Neapolitans is that they’ve conceded too many goals, so far they’ve only kept six clean sheets (four on the road, but only one in the last 10 games), and have conceded at least twice in the last three matches.

The visitors, who have recorded the lowest points tally since 2011/2012, can still qualify for next season’s Europa League and may take heart from both Matteo Politano (13 goals involvement for the winger this season, one short of his personal best) and Victor Osimhen excellent form (seven goals in the last nine in all competitions).

Decent odds (8/11) for Napoli to score over 1.5 goals considering Empoli have already conceded twice or more in six occasions at home.

Monza vs Atalanta (Sunday, time: 19:45)

This Lombardy derby is sandwiched between two crucial cup games for Atalanta (on Thursday against Liverpool and next Tuesday, in Coppa Italia, against Fiorentina) and could be really tricky for Giampiero Gasperini’s men.

Atalanta’s away form has been very patchy so far (they’ve lost seven and have a 0 goal difference), and not helped by their defensive black-outs.

In fact, the Orobici have conceded in twelve out of 16 games away from home and their defensive record (24 goals against) in worse than the ones of two teams fighting to avoid relegation like Verona and Udinese.

The visitors have only won four out the 11 games they played after a cup match. Those four wins came against sides fighting for salvation (Cagliari, Empoli, Salernitana and Frosinone) and three of them were at the ‘Gewiss Stadium’.

The hosts have only lost one of their last 11 games and failed to score just three times at the ‘Brianteo’.

They tend to concede a lot of chances, and in fact they have the highest xGA (expected goals against) differential, +11.52, but could take advantage from Atalanta’s busy schedule.

Expect goals in the game but probably not an away win.

In the past Monza have beaten the likes of Napoli, AC Milan, Inter and Juventus (twice), a double chance (Monza or Draw) and Over 1.5 Goals pays 7/5 via our #PickYourPunt tool.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...