Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Serie A for Matchday 30

Serie A is back after a successful international break for the Azzurri who won both games of their US mini-tour. As usual for the Easter weekend the fixtures in Italy are split between Saturday and Monday.

At the moment six teams are fighting for four European places, two of which might be in the next Champions League campaign, and at the bottom only five points separate Lecce, in 13th position, from Sassuolo, who are the second-worst side in the table.

Napoli or draw and both teams to score - Yes in Napoli vs Atalanta @ 11/10 (Saturday, 11:30)

Under their third manager of the season, Franco Calzona, a former assistant at the club of Maurizio Sarri and Luciano Spalletti, the champions seem to have, partially, rediscovered self-belief and style of play. Napoli are still far away from the level they showed last season and have got a 29 points deficit compared to 2022/23.

However, they approach this match on the back of a spirited performance at San Siro that helped them stop Inter’s winning streak and have only lost one (3-1 against Barcelona) of their last eight games.

Perhaps at the tail end of the campaign, and with no European football, Napoli might start picking up better results, and for this game against Gian Piero Gasperini’s side they’ll welcome back their top goalscorer, Victor Osimhen, but will probably be without Khvicha Kvaratskhelia who suffered an injury during the Euro 2024 play-off final with Georgia.

Atalanta have only won one of their last six games (2-1 against Sporting Lisbon), but are the only Serie A side, alongside Fiorentina, still playing in three competitions.

The Bergamaschi have only failed to score three times this season away from home while Napoli have only kept two league clean sheets at the ‘Maradona’.

Over 2.5 goals in Genoa vs Frosinone @ 10/11 (Saturday, 14:00)

These newly-promoted sides are ten points apart in the table and such a big gap is all due to their respective defensive performances.

In fact, Frosinone have the worst Serie A back-line, with 60 goals conceded (more than two per game, on average), whereas the hosts have only let in 36 goals, as they hold the best record within the bottom nine clubs in Italy’s top flight.

Genoa have only failed to score twice at ‘Luigi Ferraris’ (against AC Milan and Torino) and only lost three times since mid-December.

Three points for Alberto Gilardino’s men will all but certify their permanence in Serie A, whereas the visitors have been dragged into the bottom three after a promising start to the campaign.

In fact the Ciociari have only won once (3-1 at home against Cagliari) since the beginning of December and so far have only collected three points away from home.

In Europe’s five major lagues only Granada (two points on the road) have a worse away record than Eusebio Di Francesco’s team and only Bochum have conceded more away goals (35 against 34).

Frosinone have only kept two clean sheets all season and 11 out of their last 14 matches have ended with both teams on the scoresheet.

On the other hand Genoa is the side that, since last December, has drawn more matches in Italy (eight) and shares this record with Cadiz in the five most important leagues across the continent.

The best option might be to back the Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11.

Both teams to score - Yes in Torino vs Monza @ EVS (Saturday, 14:00)

The Granata have been extremely solid at the back this season. Only Inter (18) have collected more clean sheets than Ivan Juric’s men (14 in total, one short of the club record in the previous 21 Serie A seasons).

Torino haven’t conceded in nine home games so far, but they’ve also had troubles scoring goals.

In fact their home matches are the ones that have recorded the lowest goals tally, only 22 so far (average 1.5 per game) in Serie A.

One of Italy’s best home defences (only eight goals conceded, same as Inter, AC Milan and Bologna) will be tested by the Brianzoli who have stepped up a couple of gears since mid-December.

In fact Monza have only lost one of the previous eight games winning four of the last five, as many as they did in the past 13 matches.

The recent turn of fortunes, helped by a couple of good signings in January, above all Milan Djuric, and 19-year-old Valentin Carboni playing more regularly, have boosted Raffaele Palladino’s side numbers on the road.

The visitors are currently sixth in the away table, level with Bologna, despite a -5 goal difference.

Have Monza also improved defensively? Surely they appear more focused than in the past, in fact they haven’t conceded in the first half in seven out of the last eight games.

However their Expected Goals Differentials (xGA; or in other words the goals they should have conceded based on big data) is the second highest (+9.43) behind Inter.

No wonder goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio has often been Monza’s man of the match.

Monza have won 92% of the time when they have scored the first goal in this campaign, but they’ll find it hard to beat Torino who have only lost two games at home this season. The best bet is Both Teams To Score - Yes at EVS.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...