Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Serie A for Matchday 27

It was a tough week for our Italian Football expert as he went a very rare 0 for 3 with his Best Bets from Serie A last weekend.

A new slate of games brings with it new opportunities however and he takes us through his Best Bets for Matchday 27 with his Weekend Football Betting Tips from Serie A...

With Inter extending their lead to twelve points, thanks for their 4-0 win against Atalanta on Wednesday, the title race is all but over. But the fight to qualify for next season’s Champions League (will Italy have five teams in it?) and to avoid relegation is more alive than ever.

This weekend’s big match is on Sunday night at the Maradona between Napoli and Juve (look out for an in-depth analysis of this match), but first let’s focus on three other juicy games.

• Somebody looks doomed
• Tougher tests await the new man
• Do you trust big data?

Udinese vs Salernitana (Saturday, time: 14:00)

With 13 points after 26 games the visitors seem destined to return to Serie B. In fact, in the history of Serie A only Crotone in 2016/2017 avoided relegation with such a bad points tally at this stage of the season.

The hosts, Udinese, are only in a slighter better position as they never collected so few points (23) in Italy’s top flight. The Friulani were a touch unlucky against Genoa last weekend but missing big scoring chances has been a constant for them this season.

Based on Expected Goals Gabriele Cioffi’s men would have at least 10 more points in the table.

The visitors have Serie A’s second worse defensive record (53 conceded, only one away clean sheet) and in seven out of their 12 games on the road they conceded in both halves.

Udinese could be trusted to find the net at the “Dacia Arena” where they scored in eight of the last nine, but Fabio Liverani’s side must throw caution to the wind.

The hosts continue to be in emergency in defence and haven’t beaten a team in the bottom half of the table since May 2023 (2-0 against Sampdoria).

I fancy the Both Teams To Score option at 10/11.

Monza vs Roma (Saturday, time: 17:00)

The Giallorossi are on an excellent run with five wins in the last six Serie A games where they’ve scored 16 times (more than Inter, who scored 14).

Daniele De Rossi has definitely changed the way Roma are playing, but, it must be said, the fixtures list has been kind to the new manager.

In fact in the last six Serie A games that led to Mourinho’s sacking Roma faced the likes of Fiorentina, Bologna, Napoli, Juventus, Atalanta and AC Milan, therefore their solidity will be tested in the matches to come.

Starting with this trip to Lombardy where Monza have lately rediscovered the attacking style of play that made them one of the most entertaining clubs to watch during the last campaign.

The Brianzoli are unbeaten in five games and are virtually saved with 36 points in the table.

Since their debut season in Serie A they’ve only failed to score seven times in front of their crowd as they’ve beaten all Italy’s top sides but Roma.

Roma have only kept one away clean sheets (0-0 in the derby) in 17 games in all competitions, but the hosts are also renowned for conceding lot of chances to opponents.

In fact their Expected Goals Against (xGA) differential is the highest in Serie A (+11.28), thanks to goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio who is top for saves x game (84% of the shots he has faced) and goals prevented (9.8).

Sixteen of Roma's 26 Serie A matches this season have seen both teams score, and the odds for this pick are 4/5.

Verona vs Sassuolo (Sunday, time: 11:30)

The visitors have dropped into the relegation zone due to their worse goal difference compared to Verona. With 54 goals conceded the Neroverdi have Serie A’s second worse defensive record and away from home they’re averaging two goals conceded per game.

Despite having lost their last five away games, the algorithms and big data still project Sassuolo to finish outside of the bottom three, and some forecast they could even end the season in 12th position.

Which would mean the Emiliani would collect more points than anybody else in the bottom half of the table from now on.

Given their recent form (which led to Alessio Dionisi being sacked) it’s optimistic to even imagine they can win against Verona who have scored in eight of their last nine home matches and only lost three times at home.

However Sassuolo’s talisman and top goalscorer, Domenico Berardi, is back from injury.

His team has won none of their nine game when the Italian international was not available, but Sassuolo’s defensive frailties (in 8 out 13 away games (62%) they’ve conceded in both halves) are too big to be overlooked.

Using the #PickYourPunt tool you boost the odds for Verona or Draw with and Both Teams to Score to 6/5.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...