Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Serie A for Matchday 26

It was another strong week for our Italian Football expert in his Best Bets column last time out, with two winners from his three tips, meaning yet another profitable week for punters.

As usual, he picks his top three bets across Serie A for us this weekend...

Leaders Inter have increased their advantage on Juventus and AC Milan and might look to do more turnover ahead of their Champions League’s Round of 16 second leg against Atlético. Napoli have changed manager (again!) and have their top goalscorer back. There’s also a relegation six-pointer this Saturday.

• Nicola has the Midas touch
• A new manager bounce?
• Leaders will be tested

Sassuolo vs Empoli (Saturday, time: 14:00)

It only took a month for Davide Nicola to make history at Empoli. The manager is living up to his “miracles worker” reputation and is on an unprecedented, for the Tuscan club, five matches unbeaten run (two wins, three draws).

Empoli are outside the bottom three and thanks to a more organised 5-3-2 formation they’ve scored in five of their last six games.

Sassuolo on the other hand are almost in a free fall. Outside of the relegation zone only by virtue of the goal difference, the Neroverdi have won just one (1-0 against Fiorentina) of their last 12 games.

Worryingly for manager Alessio Dionisi they’ll still be without their talisman and top goalscorer Domenico Berardi. They haven’t won any of their seven games this season when they played without the Italian international and have only kept one clean sheet in the entire campaign.

Fourteen Sassuolo games have produced more than two goals, and the reverse fixture ended 4-3 for the hosts.

Sassuolo have won five of their last six home games against Empoli in Serie A and have only lost two of their last two home league matches.

The home side should at least get a point in a relatively low scoring game: Sassuolo or Draw and Under 3.5 goals pays 5/6 using our #PickYour Punt feature.

Cagliari vs Napoli (Sunday, time: 14:00)

It’s impossible to judge Franco Calzona, Napoli’s third manager of the season, after just one game.

He took charge of the team only 48 hours before the Champions League clash against Barcelona, where Napoli were under pressure for over 70 minutes.

However, Calzona’s brave substitutions, especially taking off an ineffective Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, paid off and Napoli would take heart from their positive reaction that led to Victor Osimhen’s equaliser.

Finally ready to play, after more than a month and a half absence due to AFCON, the Nigerian striker has the responsibility to help his team recover points and chase an unlikely Champions League spot.

Napoli haven’t scored in their last five away games and with 29 points less in the table compared to their Scudetto winning campaign they hold the unfortunate record of worse defending champions ever.

But perhaps with Calzona they finally got it right and will start winning games consistently.

Cagliari have lost and both teams have scored in three of their last four Serie A games and I believe this is going to be a visitors’ win, which pays really well (5/6) considering Napoli are, at least on paper, way stronger.

Lecce vs Inter (Sunday, time: 17:00)

Inter have won all their nine games played in 2024 and equalled their longest winning streak since February to April 2021.

On Tuesday against Atlético Madrid they gave another display of their resilience and confidence.

As often happened during this campaign they created plenty of chances (the only downfall is that the Neroazzurri are not clinical in front of goal), and kept another clean sheet, the 19th in all competitions.

Serie A leaders have a nine-points advantage on Juventus and still a game in hand; so now Simone Inzaghi’s objective is to measure out his players’ energies and make the right turnover in order to arrive in top shape for the second leg at the Wanda Metropolitano.

So far Inter’s numbers have been extraordinary (only in 2006/2007 they collected more points after 24 games), but even top teams get affected by heavily contested Champions League matches.

Lecce, who have only won one of the last nine games, are a very organised side that has proved tricky to beat, especially at the Via Del Mare, for many of Italy’s top clubs: Lazio, Milan, Bologna and Fiorentina all dropped points.

The Salentini only lost one of their last five home games, against Juventus, when they conceded three in the second half after stifling the Bianconeri for 45 minutes.

The return of Zambian winger Lameck Banda (fifth for dribbles completed in Serie A) is a boost for Marco Baroni’s side who are also, surprisingly, sixth for shots in Serie A (327, more than Fiorentina, Bologna and Roma).

The visitors have scored in 19 consecutive away games and I fancy the Both Teams To Score option at 10/11.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...