Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Matchday 25 in La Liga

It was a profitable Matchday 24 for those who follow Mark Sochon's La Liga Weekend Betting Tips column, as our Spanish Football expert picked out winners at 4/5 and 5/4.

He's back with his thoughts ahead of Matchday 25 and as always, his Best Bets are written up in full...

La Liga heads into matchday 25 on the back of what felt like a decisive weekend in terms of the title race. Real Madrid’s thumping 4-0 victory over Girona, combined with more dropped points for Barcelona and Atlético Madrid, suggests Carlo Ancelotti’s side is very much on course to be crowned Spanish champions.

There’s still plenty of football to be played though and there’s a real test of character on Monday night for 2nd placed Girona as they face another really tough away game in Bilbao with a response needed.

Atletico Madrid vs Las Palmas (Saturday 13:00)

It feels like there are two versions of Atlético Madrid this season. The one that plays at home is close to faultless with just two points dropped in La Liga at the Estadio Metropolitano which has also been the scene of the only two defeats that Real Madrid have suffered this term.

However, Atleti are effectively out of the title race now and it’s all because of their desperately poor away form. They’ve lost five of their last seven on the road in La Liga, a run that started with the reverse fixture against Las Palmas.

After a rare midweek rest and back in the comforts of home surroundings, this game is likely to take a different pattern though. Atleti are close to full strength with the exception of the injured Alvaro Morata. With Memphis Depay finding a bit of form, that’s not necessarily a huge loss in any case and they should have a bit too much firepower for this Las Palmas side.

The visitors are having a fine season on their return to the top flight, but they’re not a team stacked full of goal threats and they’re 20 behind Atleti in terms of goals scored which is a reflection on that.

Las Palmas will still come and try to play their football with a possession-based approach delivering results for boss Garcia Pimienta. However, it would take a huge effort for them to become only the second team in more than a year to get a result on this ground in La Liga.

I’m backing Atlético Madrid and Under 3.5 Goals at 11/10 and there are strong stats to back that up given the exceptional home record of Diego Simone’s side, in addition to every single Las Palmas league match this term producing under 3.5 goals.

Valencia vs Sevilla (Saturday 20:00)

These are two of the fallen giants of Spanish football with Valencia and Sevilla regularly fighting for Champions League places not so long ago.

Valencia are actually having a pretty good season, but that’s only relative to their recent struggles. They’re a young team and there’s much to like about their midfield with Pepelu and Javi Guerra really catching the eye. However, with owners who remain reluctant to invest, it

feels like they missed an opportunity in January to add a bit more firepower to this team which might have allowed them to kick on and fight for one of the lesser European places.

They’re favourites for this game but their recent form has been mixed with three wins and three defeats from their last six in all competitions. They’re 12 points better off than their opponents, who’ve had a dreadful campaign, but for the first time this season, it feels like there may be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel for Sevilla.

They’ve won back-to-back matches to ease their relegation concerns, including a surprise 1-0 win over Atlético Madrid last weekend. Things look better at both ends of the pitch too which will really encourage Quique Sanchez Flores who took charge at the end of last year.

Up front, Youssef En-Nesyri is back from AFCON duty and he’s formed a promising looking partnership with Isaac Romero. The 23-year-old was playing B team football in Spain’s fourth tier until he was drafted into the first team squad in January but he’s been an unlikely hit at the higher level with five goals in six senior appearances so far.

Sevilla also have one or two defenders fit again and suddenly they look a much more solid outfit across the park with Sergio Ramos doing a decent job of marshalling the defence. Given their improvements, I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Under 3.5 Goals and Double Chance - Sevilla or Draw at 21/20 here.

Athletic Club vs Girona (Monday 20:00)

Girona have been the story of the season in Spain and they’ve been a breath of fresh air in many respects, with a likeable coach and an attacking brand of football enabling them to gatecrash the established elite.

However, anyone hoping for a fairytale ending, might just be disappointed as there’s no getting away from the fact that they were absolutely battered by Real Madrid in their top of the table clash at the Santiago Bernabéu last weekend.

As they so often do, Los Blancos found an extra gear in a big game while Girona failed to produce anything like their best football. It was a brutal experience for some of the young, visiting players, best summed up by full back Yan Couto who has had a brilliant season, but was in tears by the end having been torn to shreds by Vinícius Júnior for much of the game.

Couto is suspended on Monday and so is his boss with Michel serving the second match of a touchline ban that has denied him a place in the dugout for two of the biggest games of his team’s season. The challenge for Michel this week will be trying to lift his team’s spirits to go again but that may be easier said than done after the roughest of evenings in Madrid.

Girona do at least have Daley Blind back from suspension here and the experience of the Dutch defender was badly missed last weekend. However, with the possible exception of a trip to Atlético Madrid, this is perhaps the next toughest away trip that La Liga has to offer right now.

San Mames is a fortress with Athletic winning their last eight home matches in all competitions, including their 4-2 Extra Time win over Barcelona in the Copa del Rey last month. The energy of the crowd is spurring them on with Athletic scoring freely and a threat on both flanks with the best brotherly double act in football right now in the shape of Iñaki and Nico Williams.

Nico is a fitness doubt for this game, but not playing until Monday will give the Basques every chance of recovering him. Given their outstanding home record, I can see Ernesto Valverde’s team having too much for a deflated Girona side so I’m going with Athletic to Win at Evens.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...