Weekend Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from MD33 in La Liga

A 13/10 winner headlined Mark Sochon's La Liga Best Bets last weekend and he's looking to have a good week for Matchday 33.

As always, our Spanish Football expert takes a look at the various markets across the top-flight in Spain and picks out his Best Bets for his La Liga Weekend Football Betting Tips...

It’s one of the biggest weekends of the season in the Spanish top flight, with big games almost everywhere you look.

For this matchday’s picks, we’ll head to crunch clashes in the relegation battle with Celta Vigo, Cádiz and Mallorca all desperate for points, before rounding things off with a bet from Sunday’s Seville derby.

Alavés vs Celta Vigo (Saturday 17:30)

Alavés and Celta Vigo both put in big shifts last weekend to claim impressive and important victories. Luis García’s Alavés had been in a really poor run of form and the 51-year-old rang the changes for the visit of Atlético Madrid with six alterations to the side that had slumped to a desperate defeat at lowly Granada a week earlier.

The plan paid off as Alavés stunned Diego Simeone’s men with a 2-0 win at Mendizorroza, although it was Luis Rioja, one of the players who had been surprisingly axed, who came off the bench to fire in a spectacular second goal to kill the game off.

This could easily end up being a tougher match against a resurgent Celta Vigo that is fighting for their lives. The Galicians have taken seven points from four games since appointing Claudio Giráldez and were excellent going forwards last weekend, putting four goals past Las Palmas.

This game is likely to be a good deal tighter, with Alavés home fixtures rarely serving up many goals, but it’s the visitors who certainly look to have a bit more in the final third.

Iago Aspas, so often Celta’s saviour in relegation struggles in years gone by, came up big once more with a brace last weekend and he’s had three shots in three of his last four La Liga appearances.

Williot Swedberg was a starter and a scorer against Las Palmas and should keep his place on Saturday. The Swedish youngster was rarely trusted by former boss Rafa Benítez but his four league goals have come at an incredible rate of one every 48 minutes this season and he’s clearly a player who carries a genuine attacking threat.

With Celta’s top scorer Jørgen Strand Larsen suspended, there should also be a chance for big money summer signing Anastasios Douvikas. The Greek striker has also been scoring at a really healthy rate despite limited opportunities and I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Iago Aspas 2+ shots, Anastasios Douvikas 1+ shots and Williot Swedberg 1+ shots at 6/5 here.

Cádiz vs Mallorca (Sunday 13:00)

It’s crunch time for Cádiz who are fast running out of time to save themselves after defeat at Girona, combined with bad news elsewhere last weekend, left them six points from safety with only six games to play.

With things looking up for Celta Vigo, the team they are most likely to overhaul as they bid to save themselves is now surely Mallorca who just happen to visit the Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this weekend in a massive football match for both sides.

2024 from a Mallorca perspective has been dominated by a brilliant run to the Copa del Rey final which ended in an agonising defeat to Athletic Club on penalties in Seville. They’ve never looked in immediate danger in La Liga, but having lost both games since the cup final, concern is growing that it could yet be a really nervy end to the campaign for the Balearic Islanders.

Much will depend on the outcome of this game, but it’s hard to see Mallorca winning it. They’ve won just once on the road all season in La Liga, with their tally of just 9 away points, the worst outside of the bottom three.

Their boss Javier Aguirre, a veteran of many a relegation battle, is not that expansive at the best of times, but will know that a draw would be an excellent result for his side here. It’s therefore unlikely we’ll see Mallorca take many risks in this game, especially with their forward line continuing to misfire.

The onus is on Cádiz to force their running and we have seen a genuine improvement in their recent home performances with seven points from their last four outings in front of their own fans. Their only defeat over that period was a narrow 1-0 loss to Barcelona.

They will fancy their chances of nicking this game, but it’s hard to see this being anything other than a tight, edgy affair as the two lowest scoring teams in the division meet and I’m backing Double Chance - Cádiz or Draw and Under 2.5 Goals at 5/6.

Real Betis vs Sevilla (Sunday 20:00)

Sunday’s action in La Liga concludes in Seville with a fixture that is by far Spain’s fiercest local derby and an electric atmosphere is guaranteed at the Estadio Benito Villamarín.

Neither side is enjoying the most convincing of campaigns, yet both take good form into this game with back-to-back wins for Real Betis to leave them back on course for European qualification while Sevilla have won their last three to end any lingering relegation worries.

Sevilla are unbeaten in the last four derbies, since losing a 2022 Copa del Rey tie on this ground in a fixture that had to be completed behind closed doors due to crowd disturbances.

There have been four red cards in the league meetings since then, three of them for Betis players, but as long as the hosts can keep cool heads, it feels like it’s Sevilla who are much more likely to rack up the cards in this game.

With the likes of Isco, Pablo Fornals and Ayoze Pérez in the side, Betis are a much more technical outfit and they are rightfully the favourites for this match with Manuel Pellegrini’s team likely to enjoy plenty of possession and territory.

Sevilla have improved since appointing Quique Sánchez Flores earlier in the campaign, but it’d be an exaggeration to suggest they are suddenly playing swashbuckling football.

With what is surely the most limited Sevilla squad since the dawn of the club’s golden era in the 2000’s, Sánchez Flores is setting up with a pretty rigid 3-5-2 system with physical central defenders and midfielders sparking an improvement in things from a defensive perspective.

Their best chance in this derby, may be to try to turn it into a niggly match as they bid to prevent Betis from finding any rhythm and I’m backing Sevilla in the Team with Most Booking Points market at 5/6.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...