Villarreal vs Barcelona Prediction: Back Barca to drop points

Barcelona have started the season like the proverbial house on fire but our La Liga Betting Expert thinks that Sunday's clash with Villarreal might just be the first blot on their copy book.

The 17:30 kick-off will be broadcast live on Premier Sports 2 and check out Mark's preview and his Villarreal vs Barcelona predictions below...

After tasting defeat for the first time under Hansi Flick on Thursday in the Champions League, there's no rest for Barcelona who head straight into a tough league game at Villarreal on Sunday. 

Both sides are unbeaten so far in La Liga, with the Catalans boasting the only remaining 100% record in the Spanish top flight. That could come under serious threat here though with the visitors short on options for rotation, and most likely feeling the effects of a challenging 90 minutes at Monaco. 

They had to play with 10 men for 80 of those minutes after Eric García's early red card. It was the 23-year-old's first competitive start for the club since returning from a successful loan at Girona, but it quickly turned sour, although goalkeeper Marc-André ter Stegen must share some of the blame for a poorly judged pass out that put his teammate under a needless amount of pressure. 

Unsurprisingly, Barça spent much of the game on the back foot after that point, going down to a 2-1 defeat despite another goal from teenage sensation Lamine Yamal who scored with his team's only shot on target. 

The winger also scored twice last weekend as Flick's side won the Catalan derby at Girona in convincing fashion with four goals in the space of 34 minutes either side of the break. 

They've rattled in 17 goals so far in their five victories in La Liga. However with summer signing Dani Olmo, who has made a huge impact on this side already, the latest to be sidelined through injury, this has the potential to be a really stern test. 

There are no European distractions for Villarreal this season after a disappointing campaign last time around. It was one that significantly improved though, following the reappointment of Marcelino in November 2023, seven years on from his hasty departure on the eve of the 2016/17 season. 

Villarreal were a good watch last term, scoring and conceding plenty, with their memorable 5-3 victory away to Barcelona in January one of the highlights. 

They were really active in the summer transfer window, raising funds with the big money sales of goalkeeper Filip Jörgensen to Chelsea and striker Alexander Sørloth to Atlético Madrid. 10 new players arrived to reinvigorate the squad and the early signs are certainly positive for the Yellow Submarine who look like strong top four candidates this term. 

Villarreal have won three and drawn two so far, with only Barça and Celta Vigo scoring more goals than them across the opening five matchdays. All of their games have been close though with their victories all coming courtesy of Stoppage Time winners. 

New signing Ayoze Pérez struck in the 94th minute to seal a 2-1 win at Mallorca last time out, having done likewise in the 95th minute at Sevilla in August. Their other victory came in a 4-3 thriller at home to Celta Vigo with Dani Parejo converting the rebound, having initially seen his 100th minute penalty saved. 

With both teams scoring in all of their matches, it's clear that there is still work for Marcelino to do when it comes to the defensive side of their game. However, there is plenty to like about Villarreal's attacking play with Thierno Barry and Pérez likely to form their front two in this game, while they're not short on creativity with the likes of Álex Baena and Dani Parejo in the team. 

Team News: 

The hosts will be without forward Gerard Moreno and long-term absentee Juan Foyth due to injuries again. They also have doubts over Alfonso Pedraza and Willy Kambwala, a recent arrival from Manchester United. 

Marcelino is expected to go with a similar eleven to the team that started last weekend, although we could see Yéremi Pino replace former Barcelona winger Ilias Akhomach on the right flank. 

As for the visitors, the injuries are mounting. Dani Olmo, Marc Bernal, Gavi, Fermín López, Andreas Christensen and Ronald Araújo are all out, while Frenkie de Jong remains a major doubt.  

With Ferrán Torres suspended after a late red card last weekend, Flick doesn't really have any senior options to call upon in terms of rotating what has been a pretty settled eleven so far. He could therefore go with the same team that started at Monaco, although youngsters Pau Victor, Pablo Torre, Gerard Martín and Héctor Fort are alternatives should he decide fresh legs are needed. 

Villarreal vs Barcelona Odds

Despite those considerable selection issues, Barcelona come into the game as the 5/6 favourites to win. You can back Villarreal at 11/4, while the Draw is priced at 16/5. 

The two meetings last season produced a total of 15 goals with both sides scoring three or more in each fixture. The expectation is that this will be another open affair, and you can back Over 3.5 Goals at Evens, Over 4.5 Goals at 9/4, while Over 5.5 Goals is on offer at 9/2. 

Given what happened last season, there may be value in backing Both teams to score 2 or more goals at 9/4. You can also get odds of 9/5 for Barcelona to win and Both teams to score, a winning bet in four of their five league games so far this term, as well as on four of their last five trips to the Estadio de la Cerámica. 

You can back Lamine Yamal to continue his current hot streak in front of goal and score anytime at 21/10. Robert Lewandowski is on offer at 10/11 to do likewise, while Raphinha is priced at 7/4 to score anytime. 

From a Villarreal perspective, in-form Ayoze Pérez may be their biggest threat and he's 2/1 to score anytime and 15/2 to score last, a winning bet in three of the Yellow Submarine's last four matches. 

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Villarreal or Draw & Both teams to score @ 6/4 

This is likely to be the toughest game of the domestic season so far for Barcelona. They've been excellent in La Liga, but we're at a stage now, where it's going to be really difficult for Flick to keep sending the same players out and expecting their level to remain high. 

He has precious few options for injecting fresh legs into this team though and they may find this tough going against a strong Villarreal side, having played with 10 men for 80 minutes less than 72 hours earlier. 

Goals look virtually guaranteed given the nature of the recent meetings, and also with these sides having scored a combined total of 28 goals in 10 league fixtures so far this term. As a result of that, I'm backing Double Chance - Villarreal or Draw and Both teams to score at 6/4. 

Bet 2 - Álex Baena 1+ shots on target & Lamine Yamal 1+ shots on target @ 7/4 

Two of Spain's brightest young talents should feature prominently in this game. Lamine Yamal just seems to improve with each passing game and he's already chalked up four goals and four assists in six outings for his club this term. He's playing with much more composure in front of goal, with three excellent finishes over the past week alone. 

Villarreal's Álex Baena is another big talent. The 23-year-old topped the assist rankings in La Liga last term, but he's not afraid to have a shot either, averaging 2.5 attempts per game this season, more than any of his teammates have managed. 

I'm using the Bet Builder to back Álex Baena 1+ shots on target and Lamine Yamal 1+ shots on target at 7/4 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...