Valencia vs Barcelona Prediction: Back Barca to start the season with goals

It has been all change at Barca in the off-season and we get to see how they look under new leadership this weekend as they open their La Liga campaign on the road in a 20:30 kick-off, live on Premier Sports 1.

Our La Liga expert previews this one and provides us with his best betting tips and his Valencia vs Barcelona Predictions...

It’s a new era at Barcelona, with Hansi Flick taking over from Xavi. It begins on Saturday with a trip to Mestalla to take on Valencia on the opening weekend in La Liga. 

Once upon a time, this was one of the biggest fixtures in Spain, but it’s not quite such a big deal these days, with both clubs experiencing significant problems off the pitch in recent years.  

The financial restraints in Barcelona and Valencia have been evident again this summer. The Catalans have been able to find funds to bring in Dani Olmo from RB Leipzig, but he’s the only significant arrival. While he’s a very talented player, it’s hard to avoid the impression that he strengthens an area of the pitch where Barça were already strong, with gaps remaining elsewhere. 

The hope was that they’d also be able to seal a deal for another of Spain’s Euro 2024 stars. However, Nico Williams looks set to stay in Bilbao for another year. With Real Madrid having added Kylian Mbappé to what was already a La Liga and Champions League winning squad, it’s hard to see how Barcelona are going to be able to close the gap on their eternal rivals this term. 

Their pre-season results present a mixed picture, with an unbeaten tour of the United States that did include a Clásico win over Los Blancos, although neither side was anywhere near full strength in that game. There’s a new batch of youngsters who are hoping to make the step-up into the first team ranks after some promising friendly displays, but Barça head into the new campaign on the back of a 3-0 home defeat against Monaco in the Joan Gamper Trophy. 

With a new coach, but so many players still missing due to injuries or yet to prove their fitness following busy international summers, it’s difficult to know just what to expect from Barcelona this weekend. 

The same could be said of Valencia though, with uncertainty the default setting during summers at Mestalla in the era of the unpopular Peter Lim’s ownership. The Singaporean has been running the club for a decade, one that has been defined by the club consistently selling their best players, regular managerial changes and an overall decline in standards on the pitch. 

Last season was a relatively stable and relatively good campaign under the guidance of Rubén Baraja, although only by the considerably lower standards of recent years. Valencia threatened the European places for much of the season, but could only take two points from their final seven fixtures, to finish in 9th. 

It’s five years since they finished higher than that in La Liga. Their chances of kicking on this term, with a squad that is not short on young talent, may hinge on what happens over the next fortnight. 

The club appear keen to cash in on 23-year-old goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili and 21-year-old midfielder Javi Guerra. The former is edging closer to joining Liverpool, while Guerra is back in Valencia for now, after the last minute collapse of his proposed switch to Atlético Madrid. 

They head into the showdown with Barcelona having won just one of their six pre-season games. PSV, Alavés and Leeds have all defeated Los Che over the past few weeks, but they did win their final friendly 3-2 against Eintracht Frankfurt last Saturday. 

Team News: 

The assumption is that Flick will mostly use a 4-2-3-1 system at Barcelona, but he’s really short on midfield options for matchday one. He’s expected to be without Gavi, Pedri and Frenkie de Jong due to their respective injuries. The game may also come too soon for Dani Olmo, with doubts about his fitness having not featured in pre-season, and also whether the club can register him in time. 

Youngsters Marc Casadó and Marc Bernal are therefore in contention to start the game in the middle of the park. The visitors should be stronger in other areas of the pitch, although they are missing the injured Ronald Araújo. It’s also unclear whether Lamine Yamal will be considered ready to start, following on from a very busy summer for the teenager. 

As for Valencia, new signing Stole Dimitrievski may take Mamardashvili’s place in goal. Javi Guerra should feature on the bench at least, despite the uncertainty over his future. 

The hosts are missing five due to injury with Fran Pérez, José Gayà, Sergi Canós, Mouctar Diakhaby and Jaume Doménech sidelined. New arrival Rafa Mir is likely to partner Hugo Duro up top in what should be a 4-4-2. 

Valencia vs Barcelona Odds

Despite some significant selection issues, Barcelona start as the 8/11 favourites to kick off the Flick era with a win. Valencia are on offer at 18/5, while you can back the draw at 11/4. 

You can back both teams to score at 8/11, a bet that has landed in six of the last eight meetings between this pair. There were four or more goals in five of those games and over 3.5 goals is on offer at 2/1 here. 

With all the uncertainty of the opening weekend on the back of a busy international summer, it’s the kind of fixture that may divide opinion amongst punters. If you see the visitors coming out strong in Flick’s first game, you can back Barcelona -1.00 handicap at 2/1 while Barça are available at 8/5 to score in both halves. 

If you see it going the other way and Los Che competing well as they chase a first win over this opposition since January 2020, Valencia can be backed at 5/2 to score over 1.5 goals. Their most consistent goal threat is Hugo Duro, who is 5/2 to score anytime, while you can back Valencia and both teams to score at 7/1. 

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Robert Lewandowski to score anytime @ 6/5 

As the big leagues kick off around Europe this weekend, it feels like there’s a real gulf in terms of the fitness levels and readiness of some of the continent’s biggest stars. Many have only just returned to pre-season training and haven’t featured in friendlies, but that’s not the case with Robert Lewandowski, who should be raring to go. 

The striker was struggling with an injury during Euro 2024 which ended early for Poland in any case. Having featured in all four of Barça’s friendlies, he looks capable of playing the full 90 minutes here. Back under the guidance of his former Bayern Munich boss, Lewandowski is still set to be his team’s main goal threat this season. 

He averages a goal every 134 minutes across his two seasons in La Liga and scored a hat-trick against Valencia as recently as April. The 35-year-old will fancy his chances of getting on target again on Saturday and I’m backing Lewandowski to score anytime at 6/5. 

Bet 2 - Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 

While we may not get a repeat of the six-goal thriller from the most recent meeting, there are sufficient defensive vulnerabilities in both sides to suggest we will get plenty of goalmouth action. 

Valencia are missing their captain José Gayà who is a key figure from left-back and have doubts as to who Cristhian Mosquera’s partner will be in central defence. With a change in goal also likely, there could be a bit of uncertainty at the back, which Barça have the quality to exploit. 

The visiting team do look weak at the base of midfield though, with so many absentees and there are doubts in defence too with Araújo out long-term and Pau Cubarsí only just back from the Olympics. Given that, I can see both teams creating chances in this game and I’m backing over 2.5 goals at 4/5. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...