Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction: The home side can get a result

 | March 01 | 

6 mins read

mack sochon la liga tips

Los Blancos have made a significant move away from the chasing pack in La Liga but a tricky trip to Valencia awaits this Saturday evening. The match is a 20:00 kick-off and will be available to watch via ViaPlay online.

As always, our Spanish Football expert is here to preview the action. He has his Valencia vs Real Madrid predictions laid out below in his full match preview...

Valencia vs Real Madrid Betting Tips:

  • Valencia or Draw Double Chance @ 6/5
  • Under 3.5 Goals & Valencia Over 2.5 Corners @ 5/6

Real Madrid travel to Mestalla on Saturday for a testing away game against a Valencia side that is having a better than expected season.

Ruben Baraja’s team only guaranteed their safety on the final day of last season, with a 1-0 victory over Real Madrid in their penultimate home game, ultimately the difference between survival and what would have been just the second relegation in the club’s history.

The fallout from that particular match would go on for some time. Vinícius Júnior was sadly the target of racist abuse before and during a game which he ultimately got sent off in, with a number of flash points on the pitch as well as off it.

Vinicius’ red card was ultimately rescinded and Valencia were punished with partial stadium closures, but were left incensed by comments from Carlo Ancelotti and others which seemed to blame the racist chants on an entire fanbase rather than just a few individuals.

That’s the unsavoury backdrop to Real Madrid’s first return to Mestalla since that fiery game last May. While the stakes aren’t quite as high this year with Valencia sitting comfortably in 9th place, both sides have targets in their sight with the visitors looking on course to win La Liga while the home team are only four points outside a potential European place with a game in hand.

That game in hand is because their meeting with Granada last weekend was postponed as a mark of respect to the victims of a deadly fire in Valencia. As a result, Los Che haven’t played since a goalless home draw against Sevilla a fortnight ago.

They had the better of that game and are unbeaten in eight home outings in La Liga overall, conceding just three times across that period. That’s testament to the good work Ruben Baraja has done with this side. They’re a little bit lacking in the final third at times, but they play with a solid 4-4-2 with a combative central midfield partnership of Hugo Guillamon and Pepelu giving good protection to the back four.

Real Madrid’s last game was also against Sevilla. They were frustrated for long periods by Quique Sanchez Flores’ side but it was a moment of magic from Luka Modrić which proved the difference in the 81st minute as Los Blancos preserved their six point advantage at the top of the table.

It has certainly been notable how Real Madrid’s attacking output has decreased since they lost Jude Bellingham to injury in the latter stages of their recent 4-0 win over title rivals Girona. Without the 20-year-old, Los Blancos have scored only one goal in each of their last three games, but they remain unbeaten in La Liga since losing the Madrid derby back in September.

With Barcelona in good form and Girona bouncing back with a convincing win on Monday, the title race is not over and Ancelotti will be keen to ensure that complacency doesn’t creep in with plenty of football still to be played.

Team News:

The good news for Real Madrid is that Bellingham has recovered from his ankle injury, with Ancelotti confirming “he will play” in his pre-match press conference. The Englishman hasn’t

trained much this week though, so it’s unlikely he’ll feature for the full 90 minutes, particularly with a Champions League game against RB Leipzig to come next week.

Joselu has also recovered from his injury, so Real Madrid should head to Valencia with a full squad with the exception of long-term absentees Thibaut Courtois, Eder Militao and David Alaba.

Valencia meanwhile have no injuries or suspensions right now, which will enable Ruben Baraja to go with what he sees as his best eleven. That’s almost certainly going to be a 4-4-2 with Roman Yaremchuk the most likely partner for top scorer Hugo Duro in attack.

Valencia vs Real Madrid Odds:

Valencia have won three of their last five home games against Real Madrid, losing just once in that period, which will give them plenty of belief heading into this match. They are priced at 9/2 to win the game, while you can back the Draw at 11/4 with Real Madrid on offer at 4/6.

Both Teams to Score is priced at 10/11 while you can take your pick between Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 and Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5.

With his fitness confirmed, La Liga top scorer Jude Bellingham leads the way in the goalscorer markets. He’s priced at 9/2 to score first, 6/4 to score anytime and 9/2 to score last on his first visit to Mestalla.

Vinícius Júnior is also set to play and won’t be lacking motivation after last year’s events. He’s on offer at 9/2 to score first and 8/5 to score anytime. Hugo Duro is the most likely candidate for a goal for the home team against his former club and is priced at 5/2 to score anytime.

Five Valencia players and two Real Madrid players were booked in last season’s clash and if you see things boiling over again, you can back Over 52.5 Booking Points at 8/11.

Bet 1 - Valencia or Draw Double Chance @ 6/5

This is unlikely to be a stroll in the park for Real Madrid. Valencia have been really competitive at home this season, defeating Atletico Madrid 3-0 on this ground while they held Barcelona to a 1-1 draw in December and haven’t tasted defeat in La Liga at Mestalla since back in September when Real Sociedad were somewhat fortuitous victors.

Real Madrid are bidding to become the first current top six side to win here this season, but their current form suggests that’s no certainty. They dropped points in their last away league game at Rayo Vallecano and again struggled to open up an organised Sevilla side last time out.

Bellingham’s expected return is of course a boost, but we may still see Ancelotti attempt to manage his squad’s workload ahead of the Leipzig game and I’m backing Valencia or Draw Double Chance at 6/5.

Bet 2 - Under 3.5 Goals & Valencia Over 2.5 Corners @ 5/6

Valencia’s strong home record is largely a result of their strong defensive record. They average just 0.50 goals conceded per game at home in La Liga which is fewer than any other side in the division so it’s not going to be easy for Real Madrid to come here and open up Baraja’s team.

The hosts are slightly limited in terms of their creative and attacking options but their strong midfield should ensure they get a foothold in the game and at least spend plenty of time in the Real Madrid half.

Given that, I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Under 3.5 Goals and Valencia Over 2.5 Corners at 5/6.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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