Turkey vs Wales Prediction: Akturkoglu to carry on fine goalscoring form

There's a battle for top spot in Uefa Nations League Group B4 brewing between Turkey and Wales, with just two points separating the sides. Both are unbeaten after four games but Turkey have won three of theirs compared to two for Wales, who were held to an opening-round goalless draw by the Crescent Stars in Cardiff on September 6.

Below is my Turkey vs Wales prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Saturday's (17:00, BBC iPlayer) clash at the Kadir Has Stadium in Kayseri.

Team News

Turkey are without Fenerbahce centre-back Caglar Soyuncu and Brighton & Hove Albion full-back Ferdi Kadioglu, both of whom are injured. Soyuncu's club teammate Irfan Can Kahveci is also sidelined with an issue of his own.

Captain Hakan Calhanoglu heads into the international window in form after netting in back-to-back games for Inter Milan against Arsenal (1-0) and Napoli (1-1), while he was also on target in his last Turkey appearance, a 4-2 victory over Iceland on October 14.

Arda Guler has struggled for minutes at Real Madrid, making just two brief substitute appearances since scoring himself against Iceland, but one of those outings came in Los Blancos' 4-0 thrashing of Osasuna last Saturday, so he does have some recent game time under his belt heading into the weekend.

Football Odds

Wales are without injured captain Aaron Ramsey (Cardiff City) as well as Kieffer Moore (Sheffield United), Nathan Broadhead, Wes Burns (both Ipswich Town), Owen Beck (Blackburn Rovers, on loan from Liverpool) and Rabbi Matondo (Rangers).

Swansea City midfield Oli Cooper is also out of action, which could mean a rare start for club teammate Joe Allen, who at 34, is entering his twilight years, certainly at international level.

AFC Bournemouth winger David Brooks and Oxford United forward Mark Harris could start in attack on Saturday, as they did in Wales' 1-0 win over Montenegro at the Cardiff City Stadium last month when Harry Wilson's first-half penalty secured all three points. The Fulham attacking midfielder has been in terrific form over the past month, netting in back-to-back Wales games (the first an effort in a 2-2 draw with Iceland) and scoring three across his last two club matches. Both of his outings against Brentford and Crystal Palace were off the bench but in limited minutes he bagged a brace at home to the Bees and struck once away to the Eagles.

Turkey vs Wales Odds

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Turkey are 4/5 favourites on Saturday, giving Vincenzo Montella's side an implied win probability of 55.6%, while Craig Bellamy's Wales are 18/5, or a 21.7% chance, to take all three points in Kayseri.

The draw is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 5/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Benfica and Turkey forward Kerem Akturkoglu (15/8) is favourite to score anytime, with Tottenham Hotspur winger Brennan Johnson (18/5) first up for the visitors.

Anytime Goalscorer - Kerem Akturkoglu (TUR) @ 15/8

What a start to the 2024/25 campaign it has been for Akturkoglu, who began the season at Turkish giants Galatasaray, scoring twice in three Super Lig appearances before sealing a move to Portuguese powerhouses Benfica.

The 26-year-old has made a seamless transition to life in Lisbon, netting eight times in his first 11 outings for the Eagles. Five of his strikes have come in the Primeira Liga, and the other three in the Uefa Champions League.

He's also been on form for his country, firing a hat-trick in Turkey's 3-1 victory over Iceland on September 9 before scoring once against the same opponent the following month.

Akturkoglu didn't start the reverse fixture with Wales in Cardiff but should get the nod from the beginning on Saturday and is the obvious pick to net anytime for the hosts.

At 15/8, I think he's well worth taking on to score against a side that is yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels under Bellamy.

Bet Builder - Harry Wilson (WAL) 1+ Shots on Target, Hakan Calhanoglu (TUR) 1+ Shots on Target, Merih Demiral (TUR) 1+ Shots @ 6/1

My second tip is a three-legged Bet Builder which comes to a nice 6/1.

Firstly, I'm backing Wales star Wilson to register a shot on target, something he has done in three of his four Nations League appearances so far.

The 27-year-old had two shots at home to Turkey but was unable to trouble Besiktas shot-stopper Mert Gunok in the Crescent-Stars' goal. However, he has now scored in his last three competition outings, firing past Montenegro home and away, and against Iceland in Reykjavik.

The Liverpool Academy graduate also had an effort saved away to Iceland and at home to Montenegro, meaning he is averaging 1.2 shots on target per game in the Nations League. He's also scored three goals across his last two matches for Fulham, all of which have been as a late substitute, so he comes into this contest in great form and looks a great shout to at least work the opposition goalkeeper on Saturday.

Up next we have a shot on target for Turkey ace Calhanoglu who, like Wilson, is in terrific form, scoring in back-to-back matches against Arsenal and Napoli, while his only other game this month was as a 70th-minute substitute in a 1-0 win over Venezia when he still managed to get a shot on target, forcing a save from Filip Stankovic in the 88th minute.

Calhanoglu was kept quiet by Wales in Cardiff but has recorded two shots on target in each of his last two Nations League appearances against Montenegro and Iceland, scoring a penalty against the latter.

Last but not least is a shot for Al-Ahli defender Merih Demiral, who missed the stalemate in Wales and didn't attempt a shot in the home win over Iceland but registered two efforts against Montenegro and one away to Iceland.

The 26-year-old was the hero for Turkey in their last-16 victory over Austria at Euro 2024, scoring with two of his three shots, and will present a big danger at set-pieces on Saturday.

He's also averaging 0.8 shots per game in this season's Saudi Pro League, which is slightly down from last season's average in the competition (0.9).

Putting it simply, he's going to be a big target at free-kicks and corners for Turkey, and should be able to get onto the end of at least one delivery.

Offers

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