Turkey vs Hungary Prediction: Hakan to hurt Hungarians in Istanbul

Turkey's second-place finish in Uefa Nations League Group B4 last autumn has set up a two-legged play-off tie this month with Hungary, who risk relegation to the second tier after coming third in Group A3, behind Germany and the Netherlands but ahead of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Below are my Turkey vs Hungary predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Thursday's first-leg encounter at Rams Park in Istanbul (17:00).

Team News

Turkey head coach Vicenzo Montella was unable to call up several experienced internationals due to injury, notably Zeki Celik (AS Roma), Caglar Soyuncu (Fenerbahce), Ferdi Kadioglu (Brighton & Hove Albion) and Enes Unal (AFC Bournemouth).

National team captain Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter) is available, however, after missing the Crescent Stars' last game, a 3-1 defeat to Montenegro on November 19, but Arda Guler (Real Madrid) and Merih Demiral (Al-Ahli) will miss Thursday's first leg against Hungary due to suspension.

Football Odds

As always, Hungary's squad is headlined by skipper Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool), who will be looking to put the disappointment of the Reds' Carbao Cup final defeat to Newcastle United last Sunday behind him.

Barnabas Varga (Ferencvaros) and Peter Gulacsi (RB Leipzig) are also back after missing recent internationals. They join Maygars stars Milos Kerkez (AFC Bournemouth) and Roland Sallai (Galatasaray) in Marco Rossi's list.

Turkey vs Hungary Odds

Hungary beat Turkey 1-0 the last time these sides met, in March last year, but that friendly took place in Budapest. On home soil, the Crescent Stars have been installed as 8/11 favourites, implying a win probability of 57.9%, while the visitors are 7/2, or a 22.2% chance, to take a lead into Sunday's second leg.

The draw is priced at 5/2, both teams to score at 5/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Turkey winger Kerem Akturkoglu (Benfica) heads the anytime goalscorer market at 15/8, with Varga first up for Hungary at 3/1.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 5/6

After keeping just one clean sheet in their first nine games last year, Turkey's shutout statistics did improve in Nations League Group B4 as they were only breached in half (three) of their six fixtures, denying Wales twice in a couple of goalless draws and beating Montenegro 1-0.

However, Hungary should represent a step up in quality from the two teams, as well as Iceland who scored three times across their two games against the Crescent Stars last autumn.

Hungary struggled for goals in Group A3, blanking in half (three) of their six matches, but they faced difficult fixtures against Germany and the Netherlands and will surely be confident of putting up a better fight against Turkey, who have impressed under Montella but are not on the level of the aforementioned two teams.

This should be a really competitive contest and Hungary's chances of getting on the scoresheet are boosted by the return of Varga, who struck one of only two goals scored by his country at last summer's Euros.

Turkey are also depleted in defence so the visitors could take advantage, spearheaded by the energetic Szoboszlai who has enjoyed a strong season with his club side.

Both teams to score was a winner in half of Turkey's Group B4 games and four (80%) of their five at Euro 2024, so I'm taking BTTS - Yes at just under EVS here.

Anytime Goalscorer - Hakan Calhanoglu (TUR) @ 12/5

Calhanoglu doesn't look like hitting the heights of last season in Serie A when he struck 13 times for Inter, but his five strikes in the competition this term have been added to by one in the Coppa Italia and three in the Champions League, putting him on nine for the current campaign - just six behind the number he amassed in all competitions in 2023/24.

Three of those goals have been scored in the last month, and two were in back-to-back games against Monza and Feyenoord in the first half of March. The most recent of those was a penalty against Feyenoord, his seventh successful conversion from 12 yards this season, one of those being for Turkey in a 4-2 victory over Iceland on October 14.

Hungary conceded two penalties in their last away game, a 4-0 thrashing against the Netherlands on November 16, and also gave one away to Germany in a 5-0 humbling in Dusseldorf on September 7, so they have shown themselves to be rash in their own penalty area.

Should they be so careless again, you'd back Calhanoglu to step up and punish them in the same way Wout Weghorst, Cody Gakpo and Kai Havertz did last autumn.

Calhanoglu isn't just a penalty merchant, though; the 31-year-old can strike from distance with power and accuracy, and he has 20 goals in 95 caps for his country - number 21 could be right around the corner.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any International Football game on Thursday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Friday’s International Football games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement).

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.