Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Bet Builder Tips: Back a 20/1 Bilbao shot-fest

The 2024/25 campaign has been tumultuous for both Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United, but one club can salvage their season on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 1/TNT Sports Ultimate) when they face off in the Uefa Europa League Final.

Below are my Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Bet Builder Tips ahead of this midweek meeting at the San Mames in Bilbao, where the winner will lift a trophy and book their ticket to next season's Uefa Champions League. We also have an amazing bet builder offer for this game where if you wager £10, you can receive up to £10 in free bets!

Total Shots - Over 29.5

Finals can often be tense affairs, highlighted by the fact that you have to go back to May 2019, when Chelsea beat Arsenal 4-1 in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the last time the over 29.5 shots line has landed in a Europa League final. Last year, Atalanta defeated Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 in Dublin, Ireland, but the two teams only exchanged 20 shots (10 each).

However, this is no ordinary final. Spurs and Man United are each having an all-timer of a Premier League season - and not for good reasons.

With the final round of Premier League fixtures taking place this Sunday, the Red Devils are 16th on 39 points, while the Lilywhites are a place and a point below. The highest position either can finish in is 14th, and it's hard to paint their respective league campaigns as anything but an embarrassment.

Defence has been an issue for both teams, with Spurs shipping 61 Premier League goals and Man United conceding 54.

Ange Postecoglou's side have faced, on average, 13.5 shots per game in the top tier of English football this season, while it's 11.1 per game for Man United, who have averaged 13.6 going the other way, bringing their for and against per game average to 24.7 (26.8 for Spurs).

Those averages are below the number we need to land this first selection of over 29.5 shots on Wednesday, but they are encouraging statistics that are complemented by the three previous head-to-heads in 2024/25, all of which have seen at least 29 shots taken.

Man United and Spurs first met this season in September at Old Trafford, where the visitors won 3-0. In that Premier League game, 35 shots were recorded - 24 by a dominant Spurs side, and 11 by the hosts, who were reduced to 10 men in the 42nd minute following Bruno Fernandes' red card.

Then, in a Carabao Cup quarter-final tie at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in December, won 4-3 by Spurs, Man United registered 20 shots at goal, with the hosts posting nine efforts (29 in total).

The two teams met again in north London in February, with Spurs completing the league double and racking up a third head-to-head victory of the campaign in all competitions. James Maddison scored the only goal of the game, but there were 38 shots overall, 22 for Postecoglou's charges and 16 for Ruben Amorim's side.

Quite simply, these are two teams that hemorrhage shots and, particularly in the case of Spurs, goals. That's why this over 29.5 shots line makes a lot of sense, even if it makes traditionalists uncomfortable, given it's a final.

I just don't trust either side to keep things tight in Bilbao, and thus I'm backing there to be at least 30 shots in regulation time on Wednesday.

Football Odds

Harry Maguire (MUN) Total Shots 2+

Moving from total shots to player shots, I'm tipping Man United defender Harry Maguire to record at least two shots in the 2025 Europa League Final.

The 32-year-old has been integral to his side's progress in the competition, and while I'm still convinced he's a defensive hindrance - I'm not hearing it Man United fans, your standards have dropped incredibly if you think otherwise - he's certainly proven himself a nuisance to the opposition going the other way.

Maguire is averaging 1.5 shots per 90 minutes in this season's Europa League and has scored twice, including in the second leg of a quarter-final tie against Olympique Lyonnais.

Amorim has his preferred style of play and certain principles, but it's lumping the ball into the box and causing chaos with Maguire that has brought them some of their best moments this season. I'm sure Tony Pulis and Robert Huth have been watching on somewhere, tears of joy in their eyes.

Rasmus Hojlund hasn't exactly brought much box presence this season, so it might well be up to Maguire to take things into his own hands on Wednesday.

Certainly, his teammates will be looking for him at every set-piece opportunity, as they did at Stamford Bridge last Friday, when he had a goal disallowed in a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea.

Spurs striker Dominic Solanke will come back to help his side defend free-kicks and corners, and centre-backs Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven will expect to win their fair share of aerial duels, but I think Maguire will fancy his chances of getting his head to a few crosses here, which makes him an attractive proposition in the 2+ shots market.

Pedro Porro (TOT) Total Shots 1+

Like Maguire, Spurs right-back Pedro Porro has been crucial for his club in the 2024/25 Europa League, scoring twice in 12 appearances (11 starts), and averaging 1.5 shots per 90.

The 25-year-old has also struck twice in this season's Premier League, where his shots-per-90 average is only slightly lower (1.4).

Porro hasn't been afraid to try his luck against Man United, forcing a save from Andre Onana at Old Trafford before unleashing two long-range efforts in the Carabao Cup at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

He didn't record an attempt in the north London league fixture, meaning his per-game average against Man United this season is one, and that's a line I'm happy to go with on Wednesday when the teams do battle for the fourth and final time this season.

The Spaniard shot twice in the second leg of Spurs' semi-final tie with Bodo/Glimt, and he's registered at least one shot in eight of his 11 competition starts.

Man United were undone by a full-back in west London last week as Spanish left-back Marc Cucurella stole in at the back post to head home for Chelsea, and he was assisted by the Blues' right-back, Reece James, who shot twice in that game. Prior to that in the Premier League, West Ham's right wing-back, Vladimir Coufal, recorded one attempt at goal in the Irons' 2-0 win at Old Trafford.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester United Odds

Player Shown Any Card - Manuel Ugarte (MUN)

Man United midfielder Manuel Ugarte certainly doesn't lack tenacity, but he can be overexuberant at times, making silly and costly challenges that result in a booking.

The 24-year-old has been carded 15 times in his maiden campaign with the Red Devils, racking up 11 yellows in the Premier League and two apiece in the Europa League and FA Cup.

Ugarte was whistled for a handball just three minutes after coming on against Chelsea last Friday, before going into the book in the 90th minute for a foul on Cucurella.

The Uruguay international is averaging 2.1 fouls per 90 in the Premier League, just up on the 1.9 he is averaging in the Europa League, and he's made five fouls in total already against Spurs this season.

He committed two fouls in his most recent appearance against the Lilywhites, the Carabao Cup meeting in December, and in the first head-to-head of the campaign, he was shown a yellow for one of the three times he upended an opponent.

Cards aren't a new phenomenon for Ugarte, who was booked seven times for Paris Saint-Germain last season, despite not being a regular starter, while in his final term with Sporting, he racked up 16 yellows and one red, so he's an obvious candidate to go into the book on Wednesday.

Offers

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