Torino vs Juventus Prediction: Granata looking for a historic win

The Turin Derby or Derby della Mole takes place on Saturday as Torino entertain Juventus in Serie A. The game is set for a 17:00 kick-off and will be broadcast live in the UK on TNT Sports 4.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella is here will his in-depth match preview to go along with his Torino vs Juventus predictions and his two Best Bets for the match...

Back-to-back wins have boosted the Bianconeri’s morale but the Turin derby on Saturday will reveal if they’re no longer in crisis mode.

After an unlucky defeat at Empoli (the Tuscan side scored three times, but with an xG value of just 0.49), Torino are now in no man’s land in Serie A (four points adrift from Napoli, currently in seventh place).

A win against their city rivals would represent the pinnacle of an otherwise average season for Juric and his men.

After being outplayed by Lazio at the Olimpico two weeks ago, Juve produced two pugnacious displays in both the Coppa Italia semi-finals (again against the Biancocelesti) and Fiorentina.

Last Sunday, Massimiliano Allegri’s side started well the game, took the lead with Federico Gatti (fourth goal of the season for the centre-back) and had three goals disallowed.

After the break tough the Bianconeri reverted to the risk-adverse and passive version of themselves, which has become almost a constant in the last two seasons.

Fiorentina forced Juve to defended deep, had over 75% ball possession and were denied an equalizer by Wojciech Szczęsny’s miraculous fingertips save.

It was Juve’s 12th win of the season withouth conceding but a performance that left many scratching their heads about why the Bianconeri so often give up the initiative to their opponents.

Nonetheless, the three points helped Juve to consolidate the third place in the table after Bologna’s scoreless draw in Frosinone.

Torino’s main problem this season has been their inability to win games and score many goals, even when they played well.

A strongly organised side, with Italy’s second-best clean sheets record (15, against Inter’s 19 tally), the Granata have only Serie A’s 15th best attack (with less goals than Cagliari and Frosinone), but are extremely hard to defeat in front of their crow.

In fact this season they’ve only lost twice (3-0 against Inter and 2-0 against Lazio, but in this match Torino’s xG was 1.96), and took some prestigious scalps (such as champions Napoli and Atalanta, that both suffered a 3-0 loss).

The hosts haven’t won this fixture since 2015, but do they have a chance to achieve an historic victory given Juve’s recurrent difficulties?

Team News:

Both managers are looking to confirm the XIs that played last weekend. Sanabria and Zapata (10 goals involvement in 2024 for the Colombian striker, second only to Dušan Vlahović) will play up-front supported by Vlasic.

Bellanova and Vojvoda will be the wing-backs, with Ricci and Linetty in midfield.

Lazaro and Masina will probably find space in the second half. In defence, Tameze will continue to be one of the three centre-backs given the unavailabiltiy of both Schuurs and Djidji.

Ginetis, Pellegri and Ilic are all out. In the Juventus’ camp, Chiesa and Vlahovic will lead the attack with Cambiaso and Kostic on the wings. Locatelli will be the play-maker with McKennie and Rabiot either side of him. Bremer, Danilo and Gatti will be the defensive trio. Milik is not available due to injury.

Torino vs Juventus Odds

As for every derby in Serie A you can find great odds for all the three possible outcomes.

Juventus are favourite (5/4) to get the three points. Historically they’ve always dominated this fixture, in fact they are unbeaten in the last 15 ‘Derby della Mole’ having won 12 of them.

The last Torino victory came in April 2015, 2-1 thanks to goals from Darmian, Quagliarella and Pirlo, and the odds for a home win are 13/5.

The draw (2/1) might be a better option, considering the Bianconeri have won none of their last four away games and this season have only beaten AC Milan and Fiorentina (both 1-0) among the teams in the top half of the table.

Low odds for Under 2.5 Goals 1/ 2 as Torino’s home matches have produced only 23 goals this season (15 scored, 8 conceded), the lowest record in Serie A.

Juventus have Italy’s sixth-best attack but their xG (expected goals) differential is the second highest in the league (+8.34).

Over 2.5 Goals, which would have been a winning bet only in five of the previous 14 games, pays 6/4.

Both Teams To Score @ 10/11

The Bianconeri have never scored more than one goal when they faced top sides away from home, but will be encouraged by their good performance, at least in the first half, against Fiorentina.

It’s obvious Juve have more in their locker to produce stronger attacking displays and perhaps lately some results haven’t gone their way because of imprecision in front of goal (Dusan Vlahovic is top for ‘big chances’ missed, 16), but equally, far too often, the team seem to play with the handbrake on.

Torino’s scoring numbers have improved lately, thanks also to the good form of Zapata.

They’ve netted in all their last four matches and will sense they have a chance to break the negative record in this fixture.

Over 10.5 Corners @ 6/4

This is of course Serie A’s most one-sided derby, dominated by the Bianconeri through the decades with the exception of rare Torino's heroic wins.

With both sides generally struggling to get goals, this could be another low-scoring affair, similar to Rome derby last week.

Both teams play with a 3-5-2 system and the wingbacks, especially Kostic (four assists this year, and 11 last season in all competitions) and Bellanova (six assists so far), are very good at finding spaces and delivering good crosses.

In a cagey game it is likely both sides will try to find their target men, Vlahovic and Zapata, with crosses from the wide areas and this could result in a high number of corners.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...