Sutton United vs Birmingham City Prediction: More goals for Blues

Sutton United of the National League welcome League 1 leaders Birmingham City to the VBS Community Stadium for the first time ever in the FA Cup first round on Sunday (12:30, ITV1). Following their relegation from the Football League last season, Sutton are currently mid-table in the National League, but only three points off the play-off spots.

Birmingham are three points clear at the summit in League 1 and head into this game off the back of a 7-1 victory over Fulham Under-21s in the Bristol Street Motors Trophy. Read on for my Sutton United vs Birmingham City prediction, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Sutton United vs Birmingham City Odds

Sutton are 13/2 to win this tie inside 90 minutes, which gives them a theoretical chance of 13.3%. Birmingham are valued at 3/10 to win the match in regulation time, giving them an implied probability of 76.9%. The draw is on offer at 4/1 (20%)

Both teams to score can be backed at 8/11 and over 2.5 goals is marketed at 4/9.

Football Odds

Team News

Sutton boss Steve Morison has no fresh concerns heading into the weekend, and so we could see him name a full-strength side against the League 1 leaders.

For Birmingham, manager Chris Davies has revealed that captain Krystian Bielik has returned to light training, but it still looks as though it will be another week or two before he can return to the heart of defence.

Ben Davies has been excelling in his absence and he should come into the back line at the weekend after being dropped to the bench on Tuesday. He will likely be joined by Dion Sanderson, who has found his minutes limited this campaign, after another impressive cup display in the week.

Christoph Klarer will be eager to start, but Davies will likely want his key defender rested ahead of a home clash with Northampton Town in the league next Saturday. Lee Buchanan, Scott Wright and Emil Hansson remain out for the visitors.

Birmingham's dynamic duo in midfield, Paik Seung-ho and Tomoki Iwata, were handed a well-earned rest in midweek, but we could see them return to the starting lineup in south London on Sunday, although Marc Leonard will be eager for a second consecutive start.

In attack, young Ayumu Yokoyama dazzled against Fulham with two stunning strikes, so he will be pushing to start on the left flank, as he looks to force his way into the XI in the league.

There is a chance we see Keshi Anderson return out to the left, supported by May and Willum Willumsson, while Jay Stansfield occupies the number nine role. However, Davies could opt for Lyndon Dykes after the Scotland international grabbed his first Blues goal in midweek, while he will also offer a much more physical presence up top.

Over 2.5 Birmingham goals @ 1/1

There isn't much value to be had in backing Birmingham to win, so I am going to go for the amount of goals I think they can score. After firing seven past Fulham's youngsters on Tuesday, Blues are now the highest scorers in the Football League in all competitions with 36, and I think more lie in wait for them on Sunday.

Sutton may be just outside the play-off places in the National League, but their defensive record is concerning. For while they have scored an impressive 24 goals in 16 matches, they have also conceded the same amount.

This does not bode well for them when facing a side with a lot of attacking quality who like to keep the ball, and are having no problems with scoring several goals per game. There have been six occasions this term across all competitions in which Blues have scored three or more goals, and I think EVS offers excellent value for them to reach this threshold against Sutton.

Birmingham are blessed with players who have scored multiple goals this campaign. May and Stansfield have both scored a few, as have Anderson, Willumsson, Iwata and now Yokoyama. At some point or another, I'm expecting all of them to feature at the VBS Community Stadium, so there are going to be many potential scorers out on the pitch for the visitors.

Davies' side are starting to show a ruthless streak in front of goal, which we saw in the second half of of their last encounter as they produced five goals. Supporters are wanting to see more of that in the league after their recent draw with Mansfield Town was largely down to them not putting the game to bed when they were on top in the first half.

Against a shaky defence, I'm expecting Blues to feast on Sunday, and I think three goals are easily attainable.

Birmingham -2 handicap @ 21/10

With that in mind, I think Blues are also worth backing to win with a -2 handicap. Their players are far superior than their hosts', and with Sutton's poor defensive record, I can see Davies' men winning this match comfortably in normal time.

I've already listed the players who have scored prolifically for them this season, so I am expecting a couple of them to extend their tallies for the campaign in south London to help send Birmingham through in style.

Offers

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