Sporting Braga vs Lazio Prediction: Hosts to end Eagles’ unbeaten run in Europe

Lazio's spot in the last 16 of the Uefa Europa League is already assured after claiming 19 points from their first seven league-phase games but there's still the small matter of securing top spot on Thursday (20:00, discovery+) when they take on Sporting Braga at the Estadio Municipal de Braga. Their hosts, meanwhile, are scrapping for a knockout phase play-off place, and only a victory will give the Portuguese side a chance of finishing in the top 24.

Below is my Sporting Braga vs Lazio prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Braga midfielder Vitor Carvalho was sent off for two bookable offences in last Thursday's 2-1 defeat to Union Saint-Gilloise and is suspended for the visit of Lazio this week. Bruma is also banned after receiving a red card in the aftermath of the final whistle in Belgium.

January signing Fran Navarro is ineligible to feature so Amine El Ouazzani, who started and scored against USG, is set to lead the line again in Europe, while Andre Horta recently completed a move to Greek giants Olympiakos.

Football Odds

For various reasons, Lazio head to Portugal without a host of first-teamers. Captain Mattia Zacagni and influential midfielder Nicolo Rovella picked up their third yellow cards of the league phase in last week's 3-1 win over Real Sociedad and must each serve a one-game ban for an accumulation of bookings.

Manuel Lazzari (knee), Matias Vecino (thigh), Nuno Tavares and Patric (both muscle) all miss out with injuries, while Toma Basic, Elseid Hysaj, Gaetano Castrovilli and new signing Arijon Ibrahimovic are ineligible as they were not named in Lazio's squad at the start of September.

With the above 10 players all out, we can expect Marco Baroni to hand starts to the likes of Tijjani Noslin, Loum Tchaouna and Pedro, while Samuel Gigot is set to return after serving a suspension against Real Sociedad.

Sporting Braga vs Lazio Odds

Braga have won just two of their first seven league-phase matches and just one of six since an opening night victory over Maccabi Tel Aviv, yet they are 7/10 favourites on Thursday, implying a win probability of 58.8%. Lazio, meanwhile, are 18/5, or a 21.7% chance, despite winning six of their opening seven games in the competition.

The two teams have drawn just one apiece and it's 3/1 for Braga and Lazio to record a second stalemate, while you can back both teams to score at 8/11.

El Ouazzani (6/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market followed by Braga captain Ricardo Horta (7/4) with Taty Castellanos (21/10) first up for the Eagles.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 1.5 - Sporting Braga & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1/1

Quite simply, Braga have to win on Thursday to stand a chance of reaching the knockout phase play-offs, while Lazio can afford to lose and still top the standings, so the motivation is all with the home side.

Lazio are also without a whole host of key players so they will be nowhere near full strength.

Backing a home win, then, is an easy selection in my mind, but to up the odds to EVS I'm adding in over 1.5 goals.

All seven of Braga's league-phase games have seen at least two goals scored, while six of them - including both victories - have seen over 2.5 goals land.

Lazio played out a goalless draw with Ludogorets on November 28 but their other six games have seen over 1.5 goals, with five ending with at least three.

Braga warmed up for Thursday with a 3-0 win over Boavista on Sunday while Lazio lost 2-1 to Fiorentina on the same day, so the Portuguese team should be full of confidence heading into this contest.

Anytime Goalscorer - Amine El Ouazzani (BRA) @ 6/4

There's nothing too clever about this pick, but with Navarro and Bruma both ruled out, El Ouazzani is, in my opinion, Braga's biggest goal threat, just ahead of Horta.

El Ouazzani has scored 10 times for Os Arcebispos since joining from French side Guingamp last summer, with four of his efforts arriving in the Europa League, though last week's strike against USG was his first in the league phase.

The 23-year-old Moroccan has scored twice in his last three appearances and each of his last two starts so he should head into Thursday's crunch clash in a confident mood.

Lazio are missing several key players and could field an experimental side, which should further fuel El Ouazzani in his quest to score at the Estadio Municipal de Braga and help his side to qualification.

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