Partick Thistle vs St Mirren Prediction: First leg nerves can bring value

| Thursday 21st May 2026, 6:00am

Thursday 21st May 2026, 6:00am

St Mirren have two legs of a play-off final to save their status as a Scottish Premiership side. Starting with the first leg at Maryhill on Thursday night, they will face Partick Thistle (8pm BST, Sky Sports Football), who beat Dunfermline 3-2 on aggregate in their play-off semi-final.

Below you can find my Partick Thistle vs St Mirren predictions as we look ahead to this crucial play-off.

Partick Thistle vs St Mirren Betting Tips

Draw @ 23/10
Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

*odds correct at time of publication

Team News

Tony Watt replaced Robbie Crawford at half-time with Partick 1-0 down against Dunfermline and that change worked so well that manager Mark Wilson could stick with that XI for this tie. “We had to make tough decisions at half-time,” he said.

"What a reaction. You saw a spark, an energy. The goals might be a bit fortuitous. I'm fortunate that we recruited well.”

Cale Loughry may start at centre-back having replaced Daniel O’Reilly on the hour.

Craig McLeish will likely go back to the side that beat Aberdeen 2-0 recently, after making a few changes for the final day dead rubber. Eight players could still be out through injury, including Shamal George, Ryan Mullen, Keanu Baccus, Malik Dijksteel, Jonah Ayunga, Dan Nlundulu, Conor McMenamin and Declan John.

Partick Thistle vs St Mirren Predicted Lineups

Partick Thistle: Clarke; McPherson, Ashcroft, Loughry, Reading; Chalmers, Smyth, Stanway, Fitzpatrick; Watt, Samuel
St Mirren: Sinclair; Donnelly, Gogic, Fraser; King, Campbell, O'Hara, Devaney, Freckleton; Phillips, Mandron

Partick Thistle vs St Mirren Odds

Partick Thistle are 13/8 to win this game, while St Mirren are the same price, so it really is on a knife edge. A draw is 23/10, while there are also loads of Price Boost that you can find for this one on the link above.

Over 2.5 goals is 11/10, BTTS is 5/6, and Thomas Horn is the favourite to open the scoring at 11/2.

Partick Thistle vs St Mirren Stats

Partick Thistle have drawn four of their last five games
Four of the last five St Mirren games have seen under 2.5 goals

Today's Football Fixtures

Draw @ 23/10

Sorry for the boring suggestions ahead of this final, but these two-legged affairs are often a bit of a nothingness in the first leg. We saw two Championship play-off first legs end 0-0 (one of them illegally), and both teams will likely take a draw at the end of this first leg.

The odds suggest these two are level-pegging, and with Partick drawing four of their last five games it does feel like the most likely outcome. Although the Championship side will want to take an advantage into the second leg, St Mirren drew their final league game of the campaign and may shake hands on a draw here.

Decent price for level pegging.

Partick Thistle vs St Mirren - Match Result

Draw

23/10

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Football Odds

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

More of the same theory here, as I do expect a tight game, and either a 1-1 or a 0-0 draw. These two met at The SMiSA Stadium in March in the quarter-finals of the Scottish Cup, and although that ended 2-1 to St Mirren, the Premiership were at home and it wasn’t a two-legged affair.

That does change the feeling of this first leg, with five of the last seven Partick games having three goals or fewer. Four of the last five St Mirren games have also seen under 2.5 goals, so I’m happy to put this slightly boring pick forward as my second selection.

Partick Thistle vs St Mirren - Total Goals

Under 2.5

8/11

Bet Here

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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