Sparta Prague vs Inter Milan Prediction: I Nerazzurri to kill off Czech club’s CL dreams

After picking up just four points from their opening six league phase games in the Uefa Champions League, Sparta Prague are staring at a January finish to their European campaign. To prolong their knockout rounds dream, the reigning Czech First League champions will likely have to beat Italian giants Inter Milan at the epet ARENA on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 8) and hope other results go their way.

Inter's place in the top 24 is much more assured, but Simone Inzaghi will be desperate for his side to finish in the top eight and secure direct entry to the last 16, which they are currently on course for. Read my Sparta Prague vs Inter Milan prediction below to see whether I think Sparta can stun the visitors and keep their hopes in the competition alive.

Team News

Sparta Prague head coach Lars Friis has several injuries to contend with ahead of Wednesday's game, notably Angelo Preciado, Imanol Garcia (both knee), Elias Cobbaut and Indrit Tuci (both unspecified), all of whom are expected to sit out against Inter.

Mid-season signings Emmanuel Uchenna, Magnus Kofod Andersen, Patrik Vydra and Adam Sevinsky are ineligible to play in the league phase and fellow new arrival Jan Kuchta will also miss out.

Markus Solbakken, reportedly on the verge of a move to Italian side Pisa, managed by Inzaghi's brother, Filippo, looks to have played his last game for the club.

Attacking midfielders Lukas Haraslin, Veljko Birmancevic and Albion Rrahmani are back in training, however, and could feature in Prague.

Football Odds

Inter are without four first-teamers for their trip to the Czech Republic. Yann Bisseck, Joaquin Correa (both thigh), Hakan Calhanoglu (calf) and Raffaele Di Gennaro (finger) are all out injured for I Nerazzurri, who could make changes from Sunday's 3-1 win over Empoli in Serie A.

Alessandro Bastoni, Matteo Darmian, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Marcus Thuram all appeared off the bench on Sunday and are in contention for starts at the epet ARENA, with Benjamin Pavard, Carlos Augusto, Kristjan Asllani and Mehdi Taremi likely to make way for the quartet.

Sparta Prague vs Inter Milan Odds

Sparta opened up their league phase campaign with a 3-0 victory over Salzburg and a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart but have lost their last four in the competition, suffering heavy defeats to Manchester City (5-0) and Atletico Madrid (0-6) in that time. Wednesday's hosts are, therefore, appropriately priced at 15/2 to claim all three points in Prague, giving Friis' side an implied win probability of 11.8%, while Inter are 4/11, or a 73.3% chance, to triumph for the fifth time in seven games and move into third or fourth - depending on Arsenal's result at home to Dinamo Zagreb on the same night.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Inter skipper Lautaro Martinez (23/20) and strike partner Thuram (13/10) head the anytime goalscorer market, despite netting just one apiece in the league phase so far, while Rrahmani (16/5) is first up for Sparta.

To Win to Nil - Inter Milan @ 5/4

After six rounds of fixtures, only leaders Liverpool had conceded as few goals as Inter (one) in the league phase, and the Premier League leaders doubled their tally on Tuesday as they beat Lille 2-1 at Anfield. Therefore, Inter arrive into Wednesday's game with the meanest defence in the Champions League, a statistic they will be keen to maintain, especially as it would guarantee them taking at least a point back to Milan.

Sparta haven't exactly been prolific scorers in the league phase, hitting the back of the net just seven times and blanking in heavy defeats to the two 'big' teams they've faced - Man City and Atletico. Inter fall into the 'big team' category, and the home side will wear the scars of their previous hammerings this term.

Add in the absence of the exit-bound Solbakken and the fact Haraslin, Birmancevic and Rrahmani have only just returned from injuries, and you get the sense that Sparta, who haven't played since December 15, aren't in tip-top shape ahead of the visit of one of the best teams in Europe over the last couple of seasons.

Inter haven't kept a clean sheet in their last two games, drawing 2-2 at home to Bologna last Wednesday before beating Empoli 3-1 at San Siro on Sunday, but they shut out Atalanta in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-finals (2-0) on January 2, their fifth successive clean sheet after ending 2024 with four straight wins to nil, and did the same to Venezia (0-1) in Serie A 10 days later.

Sparta will be desperate to win to give themselves a chance of finishing in the top 24 but they might adopt a slightly cautious approach given the thrashings they have already received in the competition, and that could play into Inter's hands.

An away win to nil looks like the best bet here.

Booking Points Over/Under +32.5 - Under 32.5 @ 5/6

Inter are, statistically, the second-most disciplined team in Serie A this season, picking up just 27 yellow cards (and no reds) from their first 20 outings, averaging 1.4 per game. In the Champions League, I Nerazzurri have received 10 yellows, averaging 1.7 per game, and half (three) of their contests have seen three or fewer cards combined, which assuming any given are not of the red variety, is what we need to land the above selection of under 32.5 booking points as a yellow with Betfred is worth 10 booking points (a straight red is 25).

Sparta were shown exactly one yellow in their first five league phase matches and after receiving three against Feyenoord last time out, their card per game average is 1.3. That contest in Rotterdam was Sparta's first that crossed the 32.5 booking points threshold, meaning under 32.5 booking points has been a winning bet in 83.3 per cent (five) of their league phase fixtures.

The 7/4 on under 27.5 booking points may appeal given it has landed in 66.7 per cent (four) of their games, but considering Inter's record isn't quite as strong in that regard, and the importance of Wednesday's match, I'm taking under 32.5 at 5/6.

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