Spanish Football Betting Tips: Best Bets from Matchday 27 in La Liga

Matchday 27 arrives in La Liga and our Spanish Football expert comes into the week on the back of a profitable column seven days ago, with a 21/20 winner leading the way.

As always, he previews the action this weekend and provides us his three best Spanish Football Betting Tips, starting with the Friday night match at the Estadio de Balaídos.

It’s matchday 27 in La Liga and there are a number of big games this weekend, with 2nd placed Girona hoping to close the gap on Real Madrid and extend their advantage on Barcelona with Spain’s regular big two both facing tough away fixtures.

At the bottom, it’s 17th against 20th with Rafa Benitez under huge pressure to put three points on the board as his under-performing Celta Vigo team takes on winless Almeria.

Celta Vigo vs Almeria (Friday 20:00)

It’s the second weekend in a row that Celta Vigo are up against one of the bottom three. They missed a good chance to put distance between themselves and the relegation zone by surrendering a two goal lead to only draw at Cadiz last weekend and they remain in serious trouble.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this when the Galcians went for a big name appointment in the shape of Rafa Benitez to oversee their centenary season. A lesser name on a lesser salary would almost certainly have been sacked by now but Celta’s record of just two home wins all season suggests things won’t necessarily improve here.

Almeria are statistically the worst team in Europe’s top five leagues and worst team in La Liga history having gone 30 without a victory. Their football isn’t anywhere near as bad as that record would suggest though.

They’ve drawn their last three games, including a 2-2 draw against Atlético Madrid last time out and as their boss Gaizka Garitano has been very eager to point out, they’ve been competitive in just about every game they’ve played since he took over in October.

They’re at a point now where they’ve really got nothing to lose with relegation all but guaranteed. They did add the talented Jonathan Viera in January which has given them a lift in the attacking department and they actually rank in the top ten of the league for chances created this season, which suggests this Celta defence won’t necessarily have a quiet evening on Friday.

Benitez’s side have let in seven goals in their last three games and they’re expected to be without six players due to injury here while Iago Aspas is suspended. Therefore, Almeria have every chance of being competitive and I’m backing Both Teams to Score at 4/5, a winning bet in all of Celta’s last three fixtures and in 77% of Almeria’s away league games this term.

Sevilla vs Real Sociedad (Saturday 13:00)

This is a meeting of two teams who appear to be heading in opposite directions right now. While it would have been hard for Sevilla to get any worse after a dismal first half of the campaign, they finally look like a serious football team again under Quique Sanchez Flores who has found a cure for their defensive problems.

The solution has come in the form of a 3-5-2 formation and they head into this game having only let in three goals in their last five matches in La Liga. They frustrated Real Madrid for 80 minutes at the Santiago Bernabéu last weekend, before a moment of magic from Luka Modrić settled the game in the home team’s favour.

If they can defend as well this weekend, there’s every chance they’ll shut out a badly misfiring Real Sociedad side. The Basques have scored just 12 goals in their last 17 matches in all competitions, which is a miserable run for a team that qualified for the Champions League last season and had been looking really impressive during the opening months of this campaign.

The visitors are also at quite a big disadvantage here, with this game falling between two huge cup matches. They were taken to Extra Time and penalties by Mallorca in the Copa del Rey Semi-Finals on Tuesday night, with Mikel Oyarzabal’s miss costing them in the shootout as the Balearic islanders upset the odds to progress to the Final.

Real Sociedad also host PSG in the 2nd Leg of their Champions League tie on Tuesday and Imanol may decide he has no choice but to rotate his team and rest some key players in Seville on Saturday.

That will offer Sevilla, who have no remaining cup distractions, a big lift and having beaten Atlético Madrid in their most recent home game, they’ll fancy their chances here.

At a time when Real Sociedad’s forward players are struggling to locate the back of the net, Sevilla have an in-form strike duo of Isaac Romero and Youssef En-Nesyri. They look capable of firing their team to victory and I’m backing Sevilla to Win at 8/5.

Mallorca vs Girona (Sunday 18:30)

Mallorca have a first Copa del Rey Final in 21 years to look forward to after they battled through against Real Sociedad on Tuesday, but they’ve also got a relegation battle to focus on with their league results nowhere near as impressive as those in the cup.

Javier Aguirre’s side have only won four times in La Liga. In any other season, that might have placed them in serious danger but the bottom three have been so poor this term that they head into matchday 27 with a six point cushion on the relegation zone. They’ve lost their last two at home in the league and Girona will fancy their chances of coming here and leaving with maximum points.

The big question with Girona was always going to be how they would react to their 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Real Madrid three weeks ago. It was the kind of experience that could have taken all the life out of their unlikely title push and they did start their following match slowly, conceding in the second minute in another tough away game in Bilbao.

They trailed 1-0 at the break in that game, but we have seen a positive response from Girona since then which suggests they have by no means given up on the dream of winning La Liga.

They asked plenty of questions in the Second Half at San Mames, scoring twice in a 3-2 defeat while they were impressive 3-0 winners over Rayo Vallecano on Monday night with wingers Viktor Tsyhankov and Savio doing the damage.

That suggests Girona are not just going to collapse and they should be in a position to field their strongest eleven for several months in this game with all of their regular starters expected to be fit, including Daley Blind who was badly missed in their last two away games.

As a result, I can see them being too strong for Mallorca who may just experience a bit of a hangover after their midweek cup heroics and I’m going with Girona to Win at 5/4.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...