Spain vs Georgia Prediction: Back the 2-0 win for the favourites

The fourth Round of 16 game takes place on Sunday evening, with ITV broadcasting the 20:00 encounter between out of the tournament favourites and one of the outsiders.

Our La Liga Betting Expert Mark Sochon previews this one and he expects the Spanish to come through relatively unscathed. You can check out all of his Spain vs Georgia Predictions below...

Cologne is the setting for a Euro 2024 last 16 showdown between Spain and Georgia on Sunday, with the game live on ITV and kick-off at 20:00.

The prospect of these sides meeting in the knockout stage of this tournament would have seemed pure fantasy as recently as September, when Spain hammered Georgia 7-1 in a Euro 2024 qualifier in Tbilisi.

Willy Sagnol’s team went on to finish fourth in that qualifying group, but it’s safe to say this Georgian side has come a very long way since that drubbing in the autumn. They qualified for Euro 2024 via the back-door with play-off victories over Luxembourg and Greece and have already far exceeded all pre-tournament expectations with their performances in Germany.

Kicking off their first ever major tournament campaign, Georgia showed plenty of ambition and flashes of quality, although were ultimately defeated 3-1 by Turkey in their opening game. They were less impressive going forwards and had to dig deep to secure a point in their second match against the Czech Republic, before Sagnol’s side stunned Portugal 2-0 on matchday three on what was surely the biggest night in Georgian football history.

Their formula is not dissimilar to that of other small country success stories in major tournaments over the years. They have two or three high class performers who have helped to elevate the level of an otherwise limited team and their stars certainly stepped up when it was needed against the Portuguese.

Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, the golden boy of Georgian football, was outstanding, while forward Georges Mikautadze scored for the third match running to ensure he heads into the knockout stage as the tournament’s unlikely top goalscorer. At the other end, the excellent Giorgi Mamardashvili was on top form again with five saves in the match as Georgia clinched a place in the knockout stage.

The task that awaits them in Cologne is a very tough one though against a Spain side that was arguably the most impressive of the 24 teams during the group stage.

Luis de la Fuente will be particularly pleased that his side managed to qualify without conceding given there were doubts about the defence heading into the tournament. It’s the damage being done on the flanks by young wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal that is really getting Spanish fans excited though with fine victories over Croatia and Italy leaving the impression that La Roja really mean business this year.

The Spain boss rested all of his stars against Albania in the last match, but fringe players Dani Olmo and Alejandro Grimaldo caught the eye in a 1-0 victory that ensured they progressed with the only remaining 100% record at Euro 2024.

While Georgia have clearly improved since the two qualifying meetings in late 2023, so to have Spain. The Iberians take real momentum into the knockout stage with 11 straight competitive victories, including their penalty shootout win in last summer’s Nations League final.

There’ll still be a few nerves in the Spanish camp heading into this match though given they have been knocked out at the last 16 stage in three of the last four tournaments as a result of shock defeats against the likes of Russia and Morocco.

Team News:

Spain are expected to revert back to the eleven that beat Italy on matchday two in the group phase with the possible exception of Nacho who is expected to be fit and will compete with Aymeric Laporte for a place in central defence. Jesús Navas is the only current fitness concern but Dani Carvajal is the preferred choice at right back in any case.

As for Georgia, they’ll have to cope without midfielder Anzor Mekvabishvili who is suspended after picking up two bookings. He was only used off the bench against Portugal so it’s likely to be a similar eleven from Willy Sagnol with no reported injury problems to contend with.

Georgia will most likely look to cause problems on the break with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Georges Mikautadze at the front of a 3-5-2 system, while Spain should line up 4-2-3-1 with Álvaro Morata returning to lead the line.

Spain vs Georgia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Spain vs Georgia Euro 2024 market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Spain are the red-hot favourites at 1/5 to win this game with no other side so strongly fancied to reach the quarter finals. You can back Georgia to win at a huge 16/1 while the Draw is priced at 11/2 if you see this going to Extra Time.

If you fancy La Roja to be much too strong, you can also back Spain -1.00 Handicap at 3/5 while Spain -2.00 Handicap is on offer at 8/5. You can get odds of 8/11 for Spain and Over 2.5 Goals.

Georgia are targeting a famous Iberian double having seen off Portugal and you can back Draw or Georgia Double Chance at 100/30. You can also get odds of 22/1 for Georgia to win on penalties against a side that has exited the last three tournaments in that fashion, a scenario that Spanish fans will be dreading after their surprise round-of-16 exits at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

As always, there are a host of #PickYourPunt popular builders to choose from. Spain to win, Spain most corners and Georgia most booking points looks good at Evens while you can back Spain 2+ goals, Spain 8+ shots on target and Spain 7+ corners at 12/5 if you see this game being a very one-sided affair.

Bet 1 - Spain over 17.5 shots & Spain over 5.5 corners @ 10/11

Having scored 10 times against Georgia in Euro 2024 qualifying, Spain have to be extremely confident heading into this match, not least given how well they played during the group phase.

It has been a heroic effort from the Georgians to reach this point, but they’ve very much needed goalkeeper Mamardashvili to be at his best given they’ve faced 22 or more shots in every game so far. The Valencia shot stopper will expect to be a busy man here against a Spain side that should dominate given the gulf in quality between the two sides, particularly in midfield.

As a result, I’m using the #PickYourPunt builder to back Spain over 17.5 shots and Spain over 5.5 corners at 10/11.

Bet 2 - Over 42.5 Booking Points @ 6/4

This game will be a bit of a throwback in some regards given the number of players on show who like to run with the ball. Spanish wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are sure to make this a testing evening for the Georgian defence but the underdogs are more than capable of launching breaks with the at times magical feet of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.

Spain may resort to tactical fouls on occasions if they feel like they are in danger of getting caught out and there’s certainly the potential for the card count to rise given the higher stakes of knockout football. I’m backing Over 42.5 Booking Points at 6/4.

Bet 3 - Spain 2-0 Georgia @ 9/2

This is a match that Spain should boss and they’ll fancy their chances of keeping a fourth straight clean sheet. With Rodri and Fabián Ruiz at the base of the midfield, Spain have players who should ensure they are much superior in the centre of the pitch and it’s going to be a tough ask for the Georgians to launch many of the kinds of attacks that caused their opponents problems during the group phase.

A bit of fatigue may also creep in for Georgia after the huge shift they put in on Wednesday against Portugal. A Spanish side that’s fresh from a rest should secure progress but the outstanding Mamardashvili may well keep the score down, especially given La Roja are not blessed with the most clinical of forward-lines, so I’m backing Spain to win 2-0 at 9/2.

You can get all the latest betting prices for all the matches in this tournament on our Euro 2024 Odds page over on betfred.com

Betfred Match Offers:

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. Spain vs Georgia is part of this promotion, so if you back and team and they win by three or more, you would see 25% added to your winnings on that bet.

Extra Time Rules

Throughout the knock-out stages of Euro 2024, Betfred are paying out on anytime goalscorer and player cards markets for the full 120 minutes, not just the 90, should a match go to Extra Time.

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Spanish national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.