Southampton vs Ipswich Prediction: O’Shea to expose Saints’ set-piece fragilities

Two of the Premier League's newly-promoted clubs meet at St Mary's Stadium on Saturday afternoon (15:00), with hosts Southampton and visitors Ipswich Town still searching for their first wins back in the big time.

Read below for my Southampton vs Ipswich prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu and winger Kamaldeen Sulemana remain injured for Southampton, who are also without defender Jack Stephens for a second successive game following his red card in last weekend's 3-0 defeat to Manchester United, while Will Smallbone is rated doubtful.

Head coach Russell Martin made sweeping changes to his starting XI for Tuesday's 2-1 victory at Everton in the Carabao Cup third round, with only on-loan Chelsea midfielder Lesley Ugochukwu retaining his place. Veteran shot-stopper Alex McCarthy will vacate the side to make way for Aaron Ramsdale, but the performances of the outfielders must have given their boss food for thought following four straight defeats in the Premier League.

Taylor Harwood-Bellis scored Southampton's equaliser at Goodison Park in midweek and will expect to be Stephens' league replacement in the starting XI on Saturday, lining up alongside Jan Bednarek, while full-backs Yukinari Sugawara and Kyle Walker-Peters are expected to return after being left out of the cup squad on Merseyside.

Tyler Dibling impressed on his first Premier League start against the Red Devils, winning a penalty that Cameron Archer failed to convert, and the 18-year-old could get the nod again this weekend.

Ben Brereton Diaz broke the Premier League record for the most games played (18) in the competition without a single win and his spot in the side is under threat; West Ham United loanee Maxwel Cornet could profit from the Chile international's misery and start his first league game for the Saints.

Football Odds

Ipswich are also yet to win in the Premier League this season but after starting their campaign with tough assignments against Liverpool and Manchester City, losing 2-0 at home to the Reds and 4-1 away to the Citizens, the Tractor Boys are now unbeaten in their last two games, drawing 1-1 at Portman Road with Fulham before playing out a goalless draw at Brighton & Hove Albion last weekend.

Ten players started both of those stalemates, with Wes Burns the only change - at the expense of Chiedozie Ogbene - for last Saturday's trip to west London.

Head coach Kieran McKenna is expected to largely stick to the side that has served him so well in Town's last two matches, with only one or two alterations likely.

Burns is a slight doubt with a thigh injury so Ogbene could return in place of the Welshman, while Nathan Broadhead, Harrison Clarke and Janoi Donacien remain sidelined.

Southampton vs Ipswich Odds

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Southampton are 23/20 to get off the mark with a victory at St Mary's, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 46.5%, while Ipswich are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to triumph in the Premier League for the first time since April 2002.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

Bet Builder - Both Teams to Score (Yes), Yukinara Sugawara (SOU) 1+ Shots on Target, Dara O'Shea (IPS) 1+ Shots, Flynne Downes (SOU) Carded @ 16/1

This is a game that both teams will be looking to win on Saturday, which means we should be in for an entertaining contest at St Mary's.

The pressure is particularly on Saints, who are pointless after four games and will be playing in front of their own supporters. Martin's side did actually fail to score in the corresponding fixture last season, losing 1-0 to an Omari Hutchinson effort, though they did take a 2-1 lead at Portman Road in April before losing 3-2.

I'm expecting both teams to find the net again this weekend with Saints on the back of a morale-boosting 2-1 victory at Goodison Park in midweek, and the Tractor Boys unbeaten in their last two, and having scored at the Etihad against the reigning Premier League champions last month.

The second selection of this four-legged bet builder sees me return to a player making something of a name for himself in my Southampton previews. Japanese wing-back Sugawara has featured in my last two articles on the Saints as I successfully backed him to take a shot at Brentford in a 5/1 bet builder - he actually scored with the last of his three efforts - before tipping him to shoot twice in another bet builder against Man United last weekend, when he managed just the one.

Sugawara has now taken at least one shot in his last three games, hitting five across contests versus Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Man Utd, and he has hit the target with three of them, including in last Saturday's defeat to the Red Devils. The 24-year-old is showing real accuracy when presented with the opportunity to shoot, so I'm sticking with him to at least test the goalkeeper again at St Mary's.

Next, I'm heading to the Ipswich backline, where Jacob Greaves and Dara O'Shea are expected to renew their centre-back partnership which picked up its first clean sheet of the campaign at Brighton.

But it's not their defensive skills that I'm concerned with here - it's all about the danger I think they possess in the opposition's penalty box. I successfully tipped up a Greaves shot in a bet builder for Town's game at Fulham a few weeks back, with the ex-Hull City man seeing a header saved by Bernd Leno in the fifth minute, but I'm now turning my attention to O'Shea, who shot twice - both headers - in the space of a minute on his Premier League debut for the Tractor Boys at the Amex Stadium.

I'm backing the Republic of Ireland international to rise again on the south coast this weekend, but playing it safe with just one shot. At 11/8, the odds are terrific for a player who averaged 0.6 shots per game in the Premier League for Burnley last season, scoring three times, while he shot twice against both Luton Town and Cardiff in the Championship this term for the Clarets before joining Ipswich, scoring against the Hatters.

Lastly, I'm tipping Saints midfielder Flynn Downes to pick up a card in a battle of the newly-promoted teams. I could've picked a few players on either side, with Town duo Kalvin Phillips and Sam Morsy particularly tempting after both were booked at Brighton, with Morsy collecting his third yellow in four league outings, but I've plumped for Downes, who has one caution to his name this season.

Downes saw yellow 11 times in 36 Championship appearances in 2023/24 and hasn't been shy to stick his foot in so far this term, averaging 2.2 fouls per game, and he made three against Man Utd last Saturday.

I can see a feisty game unfolding this weekend and Downes is sure to be among the leading pack for fouls and tackles.

Anytime Goal Scorer - Dara O'Shea @ 12/1

I've already included an O'Shea shot in a bet builder for this game, but with anytime scorer odds of 12/1, I have to include him in a separate tip.

The 25-year-old is a menace to opposition defenders when making the journey up for set-pieces, and he ended last season with two goals in his last eight Premier League games for Burnley.

He's already off the mark this term after scoring Burnley's third in a 4-1 win at Luton on the opening weekend of the Championship, and he will be desperate now to net his first in the blue of Ipswich.

O'Shea's Town debut came at AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup last month and it took him just 75 minutes to register his first Ipswich shot as he saw a header blocked from a corner. He went one further on his Premier League bow for the Tractor Boys, shooting twice at Brighton, with both efforts coming from corners.

The defender's first shot was saved by Seagulls shot-stopper Bart Verbruggen, but I'm backing him to beat Ramsdale on Saturday.

Southampton have conceded four times from a set-piece in this Premier League this season - the most of any side in the division - so a visit from O'Shea and co won't be a welcome sight.

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