Southampton vs Aston Villa Prediction: Saints to avoid humiliation?

Aston Villa put in a massive effort in midweek as they fell to a 3-1 defeat to PSG in the Champions League and you can’t help but feel that the second leg which is looming on Tuesday will take priority over the Premier League fixture this Saturday. 

They travel to already-relegated Southampton (15:00) looking for another three points that would keep up the pressure on the top five. For the first time, fifth place will be enough for a Champions League spot, so Villa will be pushing to secure another European run next season. Below you can find my Southampton vs Aston Villa predictions. 

Football Odds

Team News

Southampton sacked Ivan Juric after relegation was confirmed and as a result, Simon Rusk will be on the touchline with Adam Lallana acting as his assistant. Crikey, we are all getting old if Lallana is now in a Premier League dugout. 

In terms of team selection, it is completely up in the air and difficult to predict. You have to think that Saints have two objectives for the rest of the campaign. First of all, they need to get above 11 points to avoid being the worst-ever Premier League team. Secondly, they should look to plan for next season and give some fringe players minutes to prepare them for the Championship. 

Tyler Dibling should start again on the right wing, with Kamaldeen Sulemana on the opposite flank. William Smallbone could come into the midfield, while Taylor Harwood-Bellis should keep his place in defence, as Flynn Downes serves the final game of his suspension. 

Stick or twist for Emery? You have to feel that he will use his squad for this one, although there were a few surprises in the team he picked at PSG. Ollie Watkins started on the bench but should come in for the home leg, so he is not guaranteed to start on the South Coast, while Axel Disasi replaced Matty Cash at half-time in the French capital. 

Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana and Marco Asensio were all brought on as subs but you’d expect the latter to start on Tuesday as Villa hunt for goals. I think Maatsen and Onana should start this one, while Emiliano Martinez will play again in goal. This is a really tough balancing act for Emery, but he’s got the squad depth to deal with anything that is thrown at him. 

Southampton vs Aston Villa Odds 

Southampton are priced at 5/1 to win this game having picked up just five points at home this season, while Aston Villa can be backed at 4/7. A draw is available at 100/30 while over 2.5 goals is up at 8/13. 

68% of Villa matches, the second-highest percentage in the Premier League, have ended with both teams on the scoresheet and that can be backed at 8/11 while Watkins is the favourite to score first at 4/1. 

BTTS @ 8/11

Southampton are going to have to offer more than they have done in recent weeks, but they’ve actually scored a decent amount of goals of late. In each of their last four matches both teams have scored and though Saints have only picked up one point in that run, they have posed an attacking threat. 

I think under Rusk/Lallana, and now relegation has been confirmed, they will play with slightly more freedom, so I’m backing them to find the net again. Villa’s attacking quality speaks for itself and in 21 of their 31 PL games so far this term, both teams have found the net. Even with some player rotation, I think this will be a high-scoring affair. 

Double Chance: Southampton or Draw @ 7/5

I think we are getting great value here based on the fact that Southampton are perceived to be terrible right now. Scratch that, they have been terrible recently. Well, all season in truth. 10 points is an astonishingly woeful total, so why am I backing them to get something against the Champions League quarter-finalists?

Well the positioning of this fixture, in between both legs against PSG means that Villa won’t have their full focus on this game. The fact they have to travel to an already-relegated team makes this a more difficult game that it first appears, but if Juric was still in charge I’d be backing the away side. 

However, this is a fresh start for Saints and this game has become the biggest of their season. They simply have to get some points on the board to avoid the humiliation of being the worst-ever Premier League team, and I can see them pushing Villa on home soil. It’s been a dismal season and their fans need something to cheer, while Emery’s side simply have bigger fish to fry. I can see Saints nicking at least a point. 

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