Slovenia vs Austria Prediction: Hosts to extend unbeaten run to 11 games

Slovenia and Austria commence their Uefa Nations League campaigns on Friday (19:45) when they meet in Group 3, League B at the Stadion Stozice in Ljubljana.

Read below for my Slovenia vs Austria prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this first-round clash in the Slovenian capital.

Team News

Five players named in Slovenia's Euro 2024 squad won't be turning out for the national team in September, notably goalkeeper Vid Belec, who has retired from international duty, and 61-cap midfielder Benjamin Verbic.

The headline names picked by head coach Matjaz Kek are RB Leipzig striker Benjamin Sesko, Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak, and former Atalanta playmaker Josip Ilicic, now of Maribor.

Football Odds

Austria head coach Ralf Rangnick has kept faith with many of the players that served him so well at the Euros, where they were narrowly beaten 2-1 by Turkey in the last 16.

Marcel Sabitzer, Marko Arnautovic and Konraid Laimer were key players for Das Team in Germany and the trio look likely to start on Friday, but Christoph Baumgartner, who scored once and claimed an assist at the tournament, could be forced to play a supporting role in Ljubljana after being restricted to two fleeting substitute appearances for club side RB Leipzig on his return from injury.

Slovenia vs Austria Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Slovenia vs Austria page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Slovenia haven't lost on home soil since a 0-2 defeat to Sweden in June 2022 but are considered outsiders to take all three points on Friday. Odds of 5/2 give Kek's side an implied win probability of 28.6%, while Austria are 23/20, or a 46.5% chance, to kick off their UNL campaign with a victory.

The draw is available at 23/10, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Arnautovic is favourite to score anytime at 9/5, closely followed by Sesko (23/10). The Austrian is 5/1 to strike first, while the Slovenian striker is 13/2 in the same market.

Double Chance & Both Teams to Score - Slovenia or Draw & Yes @ 7/4

Slovenia have been a tough nut to crack for most teams over the last couple of years. Since being thrashed 4-1 in Belgrade by Serbia in June 2022, Slovenia have lost just two of their 25 matches in regulation time, the most recent of which came against Denmark last November (1-2).

Kek's charges drew all three group games at Euro 2024 to set up a last-16 tie with Portugal, who were heavily fancied to outclass their lower-ranked opponents. However, Slovenia took the game to a penalty shoot-out, where they lost 0-3.

Slovenia's games aren't usually packed full of goals but there was a goal on each side in 1-1 draws with Denmark and Serbia to start their Euro 2024 group phase. In fact, BTTS - Yes has landed in five of their last eight matches, and they avoided defeat in all of those.

Austria were one of the most entertaining nations at the Euros, with a 3-1 victory over Poland followed by a 3-2 win against the Netherlands before they bowed out of the tournament against Turkey in the last 16. Six of their last seven internationals have seen both teams score, their 1-0 defeat to France in Germany being the only exception.

I expect both sides to get on the scoresheet in Ljubljana this week, but home advantage should help Slovenia to at least avoid defeat and extend their unbeaten run to 11 games.

Correct Score - Draw 1-1 @ 11/2

This has been a popular scoreline for Slovenia of late, with three of their last five matches ending 1-1. They actually drew 1-1 three games in a row before a goalless stalemate with England ended that run.

Slovenia also drew 1-1 with Denmark, a side not on a dissimilar level to Austria, in Ljubljana in June 2023.

Austria, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with Switzerland in June in their final pre-Euro 2024 friendly, and they've experienced that scoreline a total of four times in the Rangnick reign.

I'm already backing both teams to score while Slovenia's solid defence should ensure there aren't too many strikes in the capital, so I think 1-1 is a sensible selection at odds of 11/2.

Offers

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