Sevilla vs Barcelona Prediction: Back the second half to produce the most goals

It has been a season to forget for Barcelona fans but they get to watch their side one last time in their 23/24 campaign on the road at Sevilla on Sunday night (20:00, Premier Sports 1).

Our Spanish football expert breaks down the match-up and puts up his two Best Bets for the match in his Sevilla vs Barcelona Predictions column...

Sevilla and Barcelona meet in the final match of La Liga 2023/24 at a time of great uncertainty for both clubs with Quique Sánchez Flores and Xavi taking charge of their final games.

These are chaotic times in Seville and Barcelona, with two of the most successful clubs in European football in the 21st Century, both pretty badly run and seemingly in a state of decline that shows no sign of turning anytime soon.

Both clubs have performed bizarre U-turns over the past fortnight whilst failing to treat club legends with the basic respect they surely deserved.

At the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, it’s only a little over a week ago that club legend Jesús Navas, who made his Sevilla debut way back in 2003, announced his imminent and somewhat bitter departure claiming Sevilla had made no attempt to get in touch over a potential contract extension.

Hastily arranged goodbye messages went out via Sevilla’s social media channels, only for Navas to sign a “lifetime contract” the following day. Club president José María del Nido intervened but may still be the subject of final day protests with Sevilla fans increasingly fed up with the direction their club is heading in.

Meanwhile, there were some chants against Barcelona president Joan Laporta and in favour of Xavi at the Estadi Olímpic during the Catalan club’s 3-0 win over Rayo Vallecano last Saturday. However, they weren’t enough to change Laporta’s mind with the rumour mill turning into reality on Friday with Barcelona confirming they had dismissed Xavi, less than a month after confirming that he would be staying on for next season after all.

Laporta was reportedly unhappy with comments made by the Barça boss in the press, with former Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick set to replace him this summer.

On the pitch, there isn’t actually a great deal riding on this game with Barcelona guaranteed to finish second while Sevilla are only fighting for positions, but are guaranteed to finish in the bottom half for the second season running, following 21 straight years in the top half of La Liga.

Quique Sánchez Flores has actually done a relatively good job of steadying the ship after a disastrous start to the season, with José Luis Mendilibar and Diego Alonso both getting the chop before the turn of the year.

They’ve at least resembled a competitive football team under Sánchez Flores with a better defensive structure, while the goals of Youssef En-Nesyri have enabled them to win games and move clear of any relegation drama.

However, their form has tailed off since passing the 40-point mark with three straight defeats heading into this game for the Andalusians including a really poor 1-0 home loss against lowly Cádiz the week before last.

Over in Barcelona, despite the off-field distractions, Xavi’s side has reeled off three straight wins to nil in La Liga. They’ll finish the campaign on 85 points if they win this game, only three shy of last season’s title winning figure but they’ve never seriously threatened to compete with Real Madrid this term.

It’s in the big games where they’ve fallen short, losing all three Clásicos and both league games against Girona, but in fixtures like this one they’ve tended to do the business.

Barcelona haven’t lost away to anyone outside the top three in La Liga this term and head into this match having kept clean sheets in nine of their last 12 fixtures in the Spanish top flight. A late brace from substitute Pedri secured victory over Rayo last time out and they’ve not conceded since the defeat at Girona at the beginning of the month.

Team News:

Sevilla are missing at least six players due to injury, with Jesús Navas, Érik Lamela, Djibril Sow, Marcos Acuña, Isaac Romero and Óliver Torres all unavailable on the final weekend.

They also have a doubt over Suso which will limit Quique Sánchez Flores’ options, but he’s expected to go as strong as possible in his final game with positions and prize money at stake which could make a small difference given Sevilla’s challenging financial plight.

Xavi’s final eleven is a bit harder to read and he has more options at his disposal with only long-term absentees Gavi, Frenkie de Jong and Alejandro Balde missing.

Pedri is pushing for a start after his goals last weekend, with İlkay Gündoğan perhaps getting a rest. The departing Barça boss may consider giving some of his youngsters minutes in this game but is still expected to name a relatively strong starting eleven.

Sevilla vs Barcelona Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Sevilla vs Barcelona market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Barcelona are 8/11 to win the game and sign off for the season with three points. Meanwhile, Sevilla are on offer at 13/5 with the Draw available at 3/1.

Both Teams to Score is priced at 4/9 but the Catalans do come into this having won seven of their last ten league games without conceding. You can back Barcelona to win to nil at 11/4 if you see this going the same way.

As far as goal threats go, both teams have one standout option. Robert Lewandowski is priced at 21/20 to score anytime, while Youssef En-Nesyri is the game’s second favourite in the anytime goalscorer market at 11/8. You can even combine the two using the #PickYourPunt tool and back Lewandowski and En-Nesyri to score at 7/2.

In terms of other options, fresh from his late brace last weekend, Pedri may be worth considering at 100/30 to score anytime and 11/1 to score last.

If you fancy Xavi’s team to end the season in style, you can back Barcelona to score over 2.5 goals at 7/4 while Barça are priced at 18/5 to win both halves.

Bet 1 - Barcelona to win & Under 4.5 goals @ 7/5 via #PickYourPunt

There hasn’t been a great deal wrong with Barça on the pitch in recent weeks with seven goals scored and none conceded across their last three league games and they look good to take care of business here and leave the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán with maximum points.

It hasn’t looked like a hugely motivated Sevilla in recent weeks, but they are solid enough at the back to at least make the visitors work for their goals with Kike Salas, Sergio Ramos and Loïc Badé forming a competitive back three.

I’m using the #PickYourPunt tool to back Barcelona and Under 4.5 goals at 7/5 which has been a winning bet in seven of their last 10 league fixtures.

Bet 2 - Highest Scoring Half - 2nd Half @ 19/20

Sevilla are capable of keeping Barcelona at bay for periods in this game but with so many injuries, their lack of depth could ultimately cost them in the Second Half with Xavi blessed with more options to bring on from the bench.

The goals have tended to flow after the break in Barça matches this term with 68% of their goals scored and 56% of their goals conceded coming after the interval in La Liga.

I’m backing Highest Scoring Half - Second Half at 19/20 here, which has been a pretty reliable pick this term for games involving the Catalan giants. It also landed in the reverse fixture against Sevilla which was settled by a late Sergio Ramos own goal to the delight of Barcelona fans.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...