Scotland v Portugal Prediction: Expect a high-scoring away win at Hampden Park

It’s Scotland v Portugal on Tuesday, October 15, (19:45), a match between two sides who have had very different Nations League campaigns so far. The game will be streamed on YouTube.

Portugal-based James Pacheco is fresh from 2/2 winning selections in the Poland v Portugal match at the weekend and has a 13/5 shot and a Bet Builder to talk you through as part of his Scotland vs Portugal Predictions in his match preview for us here at Betfred Insights...

Scotland

Three matches, three defeats, each one by a single goal, and they scored in all three. That’s the long and short of Scotland’s campaign in the Nations League so far.

Curiously, in none of the three games were they truly outplayed and in all three they were ahead at one stage in the game. That they ended up empty-handed after all three is the worrying bit and it’s hard to know what can be done to change things.

It means their Nations League campaign is very much over but that’s not to say they’ll take it easy from here. These matches are priceless preparation for their World Cup qualifiers, not to mention the fact that Steve Clarke is fighting to keep his job.

Last time out they put in a spirited performance in Croatia, going 1-0 up (again) before the hosts, ever tough at home, turned things around.

Despite the physical and mental drain, they may play the same side again. Partly because they don’t have a huge amount of options to mix things up.

The uncapped midfielder Connor Barron has been called up at the expense of James Forrest, but is unlikely to start.

Possible XI: Gordon, Ralston, Robertson, Hanley, Souttar, McTominay, Gilmour, Christie, Boak, McLean, Dykes.

Portugal

First things first. Last time out in Poland v Portugal we got both teams to score come in (it ended 1-3) at odds of 4/5, while that last corner we needed to get to 10 came quite late on in the day. But come it did, for a winner at evens. So 1.8 points of profit and a reminder that we can also turn good profits with shorter-priced odds; the important thing is they’re well-thought out, good value bets. On we go.

By most people’s reckoning, the first 45 minutes against Poland were the best of Robert Martinez’s time in charge of the side, which is now going on almost two years.

Not because they were 2-0 up by half-time at Poland, who are always resilient at home, but because of the way they played.

When in possession they rarely looked like they were going to lose the ball and when on the break, they were lightning quick in getting it out wide and then in dangerous shooting positions just about every time they went on the counter. Where was this pace and intent at the Euros?

All of Rafa Leao, Chelsea’s Renato Veiga (on debut), Pedro Neto and Nuno Mendes were simply outstanding.

Ronaldo played his part, too. There wasn’t much that was remarkable about his first half strike, a well-taken opportunistic goal after Leao had hit the post (his 133^rd in international football) but his attitude was much better than in the past.

He ‘allowed’ Bruno Fernandes to take a dangerous free kick and set up the Manchester United man when he could have gone for goal himself, with Fernandes making a bit of a mess of the finish. There were no histrionics when he was subbed after 63 minutes, just a steely gaze from the bench as he hoped Portugal could close out the match without him.

So Portugal maintain their 100% record and are arguably looking like the side to beat if they carry on like this.

Ronaldo may have to settle for a place on the bench with Diogo Jota getting a game. Vitinha may come in for one of Bernardo Silva or Bruno Fernandes. One Neves may replace another with PSG’s Joao possibly coming in for Al-Hilal’s Ruben, formerly of Wolves

Possible XI: Costa, Dalot, Dias, Renato Veiga, Mendes, Joao Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Neto/Trincao, Leao, Ronaldo/Jota.  

Scotland vs Portugal Odds

These two have played each other 16 times over the years with nine wins for Portugal, three draws and four wins for the Scots.

An even better indication of the gulf in class between the two is that Portugal have won the last four dating back to 1992: 2-1 (in September this year), 3-1, 2-0 and 5-0.

So if you want a banker for your midweek acca, you can do worse than taking Portugal at 8/13 (implied probability 62%). It’s 18/5 Scotland (22%) and 3/1 the draw (25%), by the way.

Portugal to win + Over 3.5 Goals

The thing is: we want to have the away win onside, but we want better odds than those.

The obvious option is a Portugal win with both teams scoring at 2/1.

BTTS was an outcome that was kind to us in Poland as we know and it’s worth remembering that it would have been a winner in all of three Portugal’s Nations League matches so far: 2-1, 2-1 and 3-1. For good measure it would also have paid out to have BTTS in a Scotland defeat in all of their three matches to date.

But my marginal preference is for Portugal to win with over 3.5 goals in the match at 13/5. They could well have scored four or five against Poland the other day just by themselves and may find more space and opportunities here than they did in Warsaw.

And if Scotland do perform their usual trick of getting a goal, as has been the case in all their games so far, that will obviously help our cause anyway.

If you want to play it a bit safer and don’t necessarily trust the hosts to score here, a Portugal win with over 2.5 goals in the game is a perfectly decent bet at 5/4; but on this occasion, I think it’s worth pushing the boat out a bit more.