Roma vs Porto Prediction: Ranieri’s magic can set up potential Rome derby

Whisper it quietly, but there’s an outside chance of a mouthwatering last-16 Europa League clash between Lazio and Roma. What a prospect that would be. First of all, though, Roma must get past Porto (17:45, TNT Sports 3) in the Italian capital, having held them to a 1-1 draw in Portugal. 

Claudio Ranieri has done a fantastic job with Roma since coming in earlier in the season, and now a deep run into the Europa League looks to be a real possibility. Below you can find my Roma vs Porto predictions featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

The Tinkerman will have to do some tinkering with his starting XI as two of his starters from last week’s meeting are now suspended. Bryan Cristante was shown a red card after two bookable offences while Alexis Saelemaekers is also suspended, having picked up another yellow card. It means Tommaso Baldanzi or Leandro Paredes could come into the middle of the park, while Stephan El Shaarawy and Matias Soule are both pushing for starts. 

Soule’s case has been helped with a goal at the weekend, and if Paulo Dybala remains out of action, he could start as part of the front three. Dybala was taken off early on in leg one and missed last weekend’s Serie A game, while Artem Dovbyk was left on the bench for the 1-0 win over Parma but should return to lead the line. Gianluca Mancini came off at half-time in that one but should return, while Victor Nelsson is likely to replace Mehmet Zeki Celik. 

Porto remain without Marko Grujic and Martim Fernandes through injury, but they were able to rest key players this weekend in the victory over Farense. Tiago Djalo, Samu Aghehowa, Alan Varela and Stephen Eustaquio are all expected to come back into the XI for this fixture, with Aghehowa the one to watch out for. He’s without a goal in eight but has scored five times already in this season’s Europa League. 

Roma vs Porto Odds

Roma are priced at 8/11 to win this game and progress after 90 minutes, while a draw that would force extra time can be backed at 13/5. Porto are out at 4/1 to cause a shock and spoil the potential Rome derby in the last 16 by winning in 90 minutes while BTTS is priced at 10/11. Over 2.5 goals is 1/1 while Dovbyk is the favourite to open the scoring at 9/2. 

Roma to win @ 8/11

Roma did well to earn a draw with 10 men in the first leg, and I think they will be able to show their superiority at the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday. They are now nine games unbeaten in Serie A having disposed of Parma, and Ranieri deserves massive credit for the way he has turned the season around. Remember, the Italian is already Roma’s third manager of the season after Daniele De Rossi was sacked in September, and Ivan Juric, now of Southampton, lasted just 12 matches. 

They’ve certainly turned a corner now and they should be able to make it through on home soil. Roma are also difficult to beat in the Europa League, having won 13 of their last 16 in this competition at home, while they also haven’t conceded in their last three. That’s enough for me to back them to get the better of this Porto outfit in 90 minutes. 

Artem Dovbyk to score anytime @ 6/4

I’ll back the big man to return with a goal here. He was rested at the weekend and so should be fit and fresh to put the pressure on Porto, having got an assist in the first leg. He’s now scored 13 goals in all competitions this season, which is slightly lower than expected, and he’s averaging a goal every three matches. 

However, both of his Europa League goals have come at home, and he should be able to bully this Porto back line. I’m more than happy to side with the Ukrainian finding the net in this crucial encounter, and feel the 6/4 price on offer is fair. 

Offers

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