Roma vs Genoa Prediction: Fortress Stadio Olimpico to remain intact for I Giallorossi

A 2-2 draw at Bologna last Sunday made it five games unbeaten - four in Serie A - for Roma, whose third head coach of the 2024/25 campaign, Claudio Ranieri, is really starting to stamp his authority on the side. Next up for I Giallorossi is a Friday night fixture (19:45) at the Stadio Olimpico against Genoa, who have lost just one of their last 10 matches and are only a point and a place behind Roma (10th).

Below is my Roma vs Genoa prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this clash in the capital.

Team News

Roma's renaissance under Ranieri is helped by a near-fully fit squad that is missing only injured midfielder Bryan Cristante (ankle).

I Giallorossi did draw 2-2 at Bologna last Sunday, though, so Ranieri could promote the likes of Stephan El Shaarawy, Zeki Celik and Niccolo Pisilli from the substitutes bench if he wishes to shake things up.

Football Odds

Genoa captain Milan Badelj suffered a hamstring injury in the first half of his side's 1-0 win over Parma last Sunday and had to be taken off just before the interval. The 35-year-old is now set for a spell on the sidelines and he will be in good company with Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Vitinha, Caleb Ekuban (all thigh), Ruslan Malinovsky (ankle) and Honest Ahanor (knee) also suffering from issues.

Junior Messias returned to the matchday squad last weekend for the first time since December 7 following his recovery from injury and he will be looking to make his comeback on the pitch in Rome.

Roma vs Genoa Odds

Roma have won their last five games at the Stadio Olimpico, three of which have been in Serie A, so odds of 4/9 for the hosts to triumph on Friday, implying a probability of 69.2%, aren't surprising. Genoa, though, are unbeaten in their last five matches away from home and could pique interest at 6/1 (14.3%).

The draw, meanwhile, is priced at 3/1, and both teams to score at 11/10.

Roma pair Artem Dovbyk (23/20) and Paulo Dybala (8/5) head the anytime goalscorer market with Mario Balotelli, who hasn't featured since a 2-1 defeat to Napoli on December 21, first up for the visitors at 16/5.

Player to Receive a Card - Aaron Martin (GEN) @ 3/1

Genoa left-back Aaron Martin could be in for a long night at the Stadio Olimpico up against the likes of Dybala and Alexis Saelemaekers down his side of the pitch. Dybala has been fouled, on average, 2.8 times per game in Serie A this season, while it's 1.4p/g for Saelemaekers who was upended twice last weekend with the first foul on the Belgian earning Bologna left-back Juan Miranda a yellow card in the 32nd minute.

Theo Hernandez was also booked for Milan in their 1-1 draw with Roma on December 29 for a foul on Dybala, meaning an opposition left-back has been cautioned in two of I Giallorossi's last three games.

Martin was shown four yellows and one red in 22 Serie A appearances last season and has already matched his yellow card tally this term, averaging 1.3 fouls per game. He's kept himself clean since December 1, avoiding a booking in his last six matches, but away to Roma who possess some top-level talents like Dybala, the Spaniard could find it difficult to avoid being scribbled in the referee's notebook.

Bet Builder - Roma or Draw (Double Chance), Mats Hummels (ROM) 1+ Shots, Johan Vasquez (GEN) 1+ Shots @ 11/4

Roma are unbeaten in their last four league games and have won their last three at home, while Genoa have lost just one of their last 10 in Serie A and haven't suffered a defeat on their travels since October 5 under Patrick Vieira's predecessor, Alberto Gilardino. Therefore, I'm struggling to pick a winner here, but I'm more confident in Roma, at home and with the better players, of avoiding defeat, so for the first leg of this Bet Builder, I'm backing the hosts on the double chance result.

Next up is a shot for 36-year-old Roma defender Mats Hummels, who joined on a free transfer from Borussia Dortmund last summer. The German has made eight Serie A appearances in 2024/25, starting in six of them, and is averaging 0.8 shots per game, mustering two efforts in I Giallorossi's last home match against Lazio and another couple in the game before that at Milan.

Hummels has also been in shooting mode in Europe, recording four efforts against Tottenham Hotspur and one against Brage to bring up a 2.5 shots per game average in the Uefa Europa League.

Completing this Bet Builder is another centre-back, Genoa's Johan Vasquez, who is also averaging 0.8 shots per game in Serie A this season (19 appearances, 17 starts). The 26-year-old shot twice against Parma last weekend and has recorded two in three of his last four matches and at least one in five of his last six.

Vasquez was off target with both efforts in September's reverse fixture, which ended 1-1, and he shot twice on his last visit to the Stadio Olimpico against Roma.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.