Roma vs Lazio Prediction: A cagey, passionate affair in the Capital

 | April 05 | 

6 mins read

Daniele Fisichella Serie A Tips

What a clash for us on TNT Sports 1 on early Saturday evening as the Rome Derby is our Serie A action with the game set to kick-off at 17:00.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella is looking forward to this one as he brings us his two Best Bets for the match along with his Roma vs Lazio Prediction as part of his big match preview for us at Betfred Insights...

Roma vs Lazio Betting Tips

  • Roma To Score First @ 4/5
  • Roma Win and Under 2.5 Goals @ 16/5

The derby in the Eternal City is the weekend’s standout fixture in Italy and represents a crossroad in Serie A for both sides.

Only six points separate Lazio and Roma with the Biancocelesti, who are technically the away team on Saturday, hoping the change on the bench will have the same positive effects it had on their city rivals.

After back-to-back games against Juventus (one won, one lost), Igor Tudor’s baptism of fire continues with the biggest game of the year in Rome.

The first two matches have left good sensations about the Croat manager and his first weeks at the club.

In fact Lazio showed an aggressive and positive approach in both encounters against Juve and last Saturday kept trying to find an opening till the very end.

They were rewarded by Adam Marusic’s first goal at the Olimpico since 2019 which lifted them in seventh place, one point above Napoli.

In particular in the first 90 minutes against the Bianconeri, Tudor showed courage by preferring Valentin Castellanos (author of a brace in Lazio’s last victorious outing before the international break) to the club all-time goalscorer Ciro Immobile and also by playing Daichi Kamada from the beginning.

Before last weekend, the former Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder had only started one league game in 2024 and his overall contribution had been minimal (just one goal and one assist).

Yet the Japanese, brought in the summer to replace Sergej Milinković-Savić, played one of his best games of the campaign and helped Lazio to dominate possession.

The introductions of Immobile and Luis Alberto in the second half were smart moves that helped Lazio piling up the pressure.

Roma took a step backwards in Lecce where they were held to a scoreless draw by the hosts who had more (27 shots in total for the Salentini) and better chances to win the game.

Daniele De Rossi, who has only lost one (4-2 at home against leaders Inter) of his 10 Serie A games with the Giallorossi, complained about an alleged penalty that was not given, but also admitted his side did not show the same fluidity in attack as in previous occasions.

Before last Sunday, Roma hadn’t failed to score in the league since 30 December (1-0 defeat in Turin against Juve) and hadn’t drawn a league game 0-0 since May 2023.

Without both Paulo Dybala, who played only the last 10 minutes, and Lorenzo Pellegrini (suspended), Roma seemed unable to find a way to link up the play in the final third, and often resorted to launching long passes towards Romelu Lukaku.

The Belgian ended the game with no shots on target and just 24 touches.

Team News:

Luckily for De Rossi both Lorenzo Pellegrini, who has scored seven goals for club and country since January, and Paulo Dybala are set to start this derby.

Evan N’Dicka got booked in the first half against Lecce and will miss the game due to suspension, Diego Llorente will replace him alongside Mancini.

The only doubt is whether Leonardo Spinazzola or Angelino will start as left-back.

Turkish international Celik is favoured over Rick Karsdorp to play as right-back. Kristensen and Azmoun are both not available due to injuries.

There is apprehension in the Lazio’s camp regarding the condition of Mattia Zaccagni (the scorer of the only goal that decided the last derby), who on Tuesday, in Coppa Italia, suffered an ankle injury. The tests have revealed no fractures, but it is unlikely the Italian international will play on Saturday.

Tudor will probably start the match with Immobile up front and Luis Alberto and Felipe Anderson in support.

Lazzari is injured, so Luca Pellegrini should slot in as left-back, with Marusic on the opposite side.

In the middle Guendouzi will be alongside one between Cataldi or Vecino, Kamada will drop to the bench. Goalkeeper Provedel will try to make a last-minute recovery from his ankle injury.

Roma vs Lazio Odds

The hosts, in this case Roma, are favourite (6/5) despite not having won any of the previous four derbies.

The Giallorossi are approaching this game full of confidence tough, and under new boss Daniele De Rossi they have collected 10 more points than Lazio (23 against 13) and also scored ten more goals.

Despite the defence is, by far, not their main strength (they average one goal conceded per game at the Olimpico), Roma have kept four clean sheets in the last eight matches. Most importantly, they have scored at least once in the last 31 home fixtures in all competitions.

High odds for both the draw (11/5) and a win for Lazio (5/2). Under Maurizio Sarri Lazio only lost one out of six derbies and kept Roma at bay in the last four head-to-heads.

The Roman derby is rarely a goal fest, eight of the last 13 games have produced less than three goals and in seven of the last eight derbies only one team, or none, has found the net.

No wonder why the odds for the Under 2.5 Goals are low (4/6), whereas if you pick Over 2.5 (11/10) you could double your stake, in case the game turns out to be a very entertaining one.

Roma To Score First @ 4/5

The big unknown is whether Lazio’s new aggressive approach under Tudor will pay off against teams that have plenty of attacking options like Roma.

Juventus last Saturday barely threatened Mandas’ goal, and this is no longer Jose’s Roma.

The Laziali have had serious issues at creating scoring opportunities this season, in fact they’ve only netted six times (three against Frosinone) in the last seven matches in all competitions and their attack is the 10th in Serie A.

Lazio’s defence was at fault for both Juventus goals in mid-week and has only kept 10 clean sheets this season, a big drop from the Serie A’s record of 21 last year.

The Giallorossi have scored first in 11 out of 15 Serie A games so far.

Roma Win and Under 2.5 Goals @ 16/5

Given the importance of the fixture, for both sides, it’s unlikely this derby will be a classic.

It will probably resemble the last few tense and cagey games.

Expect a decent number of bookings too, in fact the last three matches all produced at least seven cards and there have been three sending off in two of the last three meetings.

Ultimately, Roma seem to have more matchwinners on their side and are due a success after such a long negative streak against Lazio.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...

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