Roma vs Inter Milan Prediction: Confident hosts can break Italy’s best defence

The Jose Mourinho era is over in Rome and left goes on for fifth-placed Roma as they entertain league leaders Inter this Saturday.

Our Serie A expert Daniele Fisichella previews the action and give us his two Best Bets as part of his Roma vs Inter Predictions...

Inter were worthy winners against Juventus last Sunday and have built a four points lead, with a game in hand, over the Bianconeri. The leaders are now facing another difficult test at the Stadio Olimpico where Daniele De Rossi seemed to have turned the hosts’ fortunes around since he replaced Josè Mourinho.

The 4-0 victory against Cagliari was the best performance under the former Roma’s captain tenure. Roma were quick off the mark scoring Serie A’s fastest goal of the season after 62 seconds with Lorenzo Pellegrini (three goals in the last three matches for the captain) and kept searching for more.

After two lacklustre displays against Verona and Salernitana, where the Giallorossi attacked with conviction only at times, on Monday they played with intensity for the full 90 minutes and showed a combative spirit that was lacking in the weeks that led to Mourinho’s sacking.

Has De Rossi found, so quickly, the formula to help his team reach their full potential?

The next games (after the leaders Roma will host Feyenoord in the Europa League play-offs first leg) will provide a more realistic perspective of the team’s improvements, but, undeniably, it feels like there’s something in the air in the Giallorossi’s side of the capital as Roma are only one point behind Atalanta who sits in fourth place and five ahead of Lazio.

Under Mourinho Roma had a terrible record against top teams in Italy, having won only three of their last 17 matches against Inter, Milan, Juventus, Lazio and Napoli.

Now that De Rossi has restored the players’ confidence, it will be interesting to see whether he decides to stick with his attacking formation, starting Lukaku, Dybala, El Sharaawy and Pellegrini also against Serie A’s best team.

Inter have taken a big step towards the conquest of their twentieth Scudetto but know that the Champions League’s return might still play a big part in this title race.

Simone Inzaghi’s men have won every single game in 2024. Whoever was expecting them to struggle in the new year due to their trip to Saudi Arabia to play the SuperCoppa hasn’t weighed this team’s experience in big matches as a result of last year’s extraordinary European campaign.

If a criticism must be moved to Inter it is that last Sunday, against Juventus, they squandered a handful of great chances.

Otherwise, it was almost a perfect display in the most important game of the season so far, superbly orchestrated by Hakan Çalhanoğlu. Inter managed the tempo and never looked like they were going to concede. Yann Sommer had no saves to make as the Neroazzurri strengthened their league’s defensive record: 10 goals conceded and 14 clean sheets.

Team News:

Both managers will probably stick to the same XI that won their respective games last weekend. Roma are without Leonardo Spinazzola and Tammy Abraham, both injured, whereas Chris Smalling might be fit to make the bench. Evan N’Dicka (AFCON) and Sardar Azmoun (Asian Cup of Nations) are also not available.

The only doubt for Daniele De Rossi is linked to a potential change of formation. Stephan El Shaarawy and Edoardo Bove are in contention for a start, with the young midfielder on the pitch, the hosts would switch to a 4-3-2-1 line-up with Pellegrini behind the strikers, Lukaku and Dybala.

In Inter’s camp, Davide Frattesi will miss the trip to Rome due to a thigh injury and also Juan Cuadrado is not available. Simone Inzaghi (who won’t be on the bench because he was booked for the fifth time this season last weekend) will confirm the same XI that has beaten Juventus. Matteo Darmian should start at right wing-back ahead of Dutch international Denzel Dumfries.

Match Odds

In the reverse fixture Inter prevailed by the odd goal but Roma are in a much better shape now than when these two sides met at the end of October 2023.

Ultimately, a meeting between last year’s runners-up in the two major European competitions might be on a knife edge and that’s why the match results odds are very high for every outcome.

Inter are of course the favourite (19/20) to win at the Stadio Olimpico where they haven’t lost against Roma since 2016. The Neroazzurri are unbeaten away from home this season and have won their last three games (against Napoli, Fiorentina and Juventus) by the odd goal.

The draw pays 12/5, in fact 1-1 is the most common result between Roma and Inter: 11 matches ended like that.

The Giallorossi have won just one of their last 14 games, home and away, against Inter and victory for De Rossi’s men pays 16/5.

Roma holds a fantastic record at the Olimpico, having scored in their last 26 games in all competitions. The last time they did not find the net was against Inter in April 2023.

Four of the last six Inter’s away games featured less then three goals and the odds for the Under 2.5 goals are 4/6.

However both teams have found the net in five of Roma’s last six home games as Over 2.5 pays 11/10.

Both Teams To Score @ 10/11

Inter’s defensive numbers are impressive, only Fabio Capello’s Roma in 2003/2004 had conceded so few goals (10) after 23 games.

The Neroazzurri have also the best goal difference in Europe’s top five leagues (+41, thanks to their 51 goals scored, ahead of Bayern with +40), and have been on the scoresheet in 18 of their last 19 games against the Giallorossi.

But this is probably the worst time of the season to face Roma, especially if the hosts decide to play at high intensity and attack.

In the game at San Siro, which Inter won thanks to Marcus Thuram’s goal, the Giallorossi hardly had a shot on target, but that night they were without their talisman, Paulo Dybala.

Paulo Dybala Anytime Goalscorer and Over 1.5 Goals via #PickYourPunt @ 7/2

The Argentine’s fitness has always been a cause of concern, but when he’s been available, he’s often left a mark.

Since last season, Dybala has taken part in 40 goals (26 goals and 14 assists), and he has netted 18 times at the Stadio Olimpico. ‘La Joya’ has a good record against Inter, against whom he scored five times in 19 appearances.

His presence could be a significant factor for Daniele De Rossi’s team, which has been unbeaten at home in the last 14 games in all competitions.

Despite not being spectacular under Mourinho, the hosts have always proven hard to defeat in Rome for Italy’s top teams: Atalanta and Fiorentina both managed just a 1-1 draw, and Napoli suffered a 2-0 loss in December.

Seven of the last eight games played in the Italian capital have produced over 2.5 goals and in six matches both teams have scored.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...