Roma vs Atalanta Prediction: Goals tough to come by in Rome

 | January 06 | 

4 mins read

stadio olimpico roma lazio scaled

The Sunday evening game from Serie A on TNT Sports is from the capital, as Roma take on Atalanta in another big game for Jose Mourinho.

Our Serie A expert is not expecting a goal-fest as he previews the encounter for us here at Betfred Insights...

Roma vs Atalanta Betting Tips:

  • Back Roma or Draw on the Double Chance & Under 3.5 Goals on #PickYourPunt @ 8/11
  • Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6

It’s a clash between two of the most inconsistent sides in Serie A. Both Giallorossi and the Orobici have fewer points in the table compared to last season and are chasing this season's surprise packages, Fiorentina and Bologna.

Last Saturday against Juventus, Roma huffed, puffed, and conceded after the first individual mistake. A script that Giallorossi fans know far too well since Mourinho is in charge.

It was their 10th away defeat of 2023. After Juve took the lead, Roma, who had two good chances in the first half with Cristante and Dybala, could not break down the Bianconeri despite ending the game with four strikers on the pitch.

Since the Portuguese manager has been in charge, Roma have won only six of the 17 games they played against top sides in Italy.

On the other hand, Atalanta’s away form has been very patchy: they’ve already lost five Serie A games (against Frosinone, Fiorentina, Lazio, Torino and Bologna), keeping clean sheets only against Empoli and Verona. With their 13 goals conceded, the Orobici are in the bottom half in terms of defensive record.

Since November, Giampiero Gasperini’s side has only won three Serie A games, all at home, and will travel to the capital without their main man, Ademola Lookman (seven goals so far), who’s been called up by Nigeria for the AFCON.

The last call for the train to the Champions League? Not quite, but certainly this is a game neither of these two sides can afford to lose if they want to cultivate hopes of finishing in the top four.

Team News:

Ademola Lookman for Atalanta and Evan N’Dicka for the hosts will miss the game due to their involvement in the Africa Cup Of Nations.

Captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, who come off from the bench in the last two games (as he scored the winner against Napoli), will play in midfield, with Bryan Cristante slotting in at centre-back.

For the visitors, Gianluca Scamacca will act as the lone striker, with De Keteleare and Koopmeiners behind. De Roon will return in the middle of the park in place of Pasalic. The only doubt for Gianpiero Scaperini is the involvement of defender Scalvini from the start.

Smalling, Aouar, Abraham, Palomino, Toloi and Hateboer will all miss the game.

Roma vs Atalanta Odds:

A win for the hosts pay extremely well, 11/8, considering Roma haven't lost in any of their last 10 home matches this season.

However the recent record is favourable to the visitors, who won both games against Roma (3-1 at home and 1-0 away) in 2022/2023 and have lost only two of the last 11 games against the Giallorossi.

A victory for Atalanta pays 21/10, but the Orobici haven’t won away from in Serie A since 30 October.

The odds for the draw are also very good at 11/5. During the last 25 matches played at the Olimpico, Roma have won 14 times, there have been four draws while Atalanta have won seven times.

Roma or draw and under 3.5 goals @ 8/11

Roma’s home form is strong: they’ve scored in heir last 23 home games in all competitions and have kept 15 domestic clean sheets in 2023.

The return of Paulo Dybala to full fitness is also a great boost. The Argentine looked sharp last Saturday against Juventus as he played the whole match and had two shots and four passes that led to a shot.

This season, the Giallorossi have only lost one of their last seven games when the former Juventus man played from the first minute.

Since last year, he has missed 22 games due to injuries, but when he featured, he has often left his mark: 37 goals involvement (23 goals, 14 assists) in 54 games with Roma.

You can use the #PickYourPunt feature to combine both picks.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

The last two Atalanta games have both been under 2.5 goals, but these scorelines don’t really reflect how the matches went. In fact, Atalanta wasted a lot of chances in their 1-0 defeat to Bologna but also risked on more than one occasion to concede against Lecce last Saturday.

Missing his top goalscorer, Lookman, is a blow for Gasperini, and the Olimpico factor could again prove decisive.

Stats suggests both teams could score at least once, as ten and eight games respectively for Roma and Atalanta have ended with both sides on the scoresheet.

However, looking at Roma’s recent record at home against top sides, seven under 2.5 goals and just one over (2-1 defeat to Milan earlier this season), suggest this might be, once again, a cagey game.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...

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