Real Sociedad vs PSG Prediction: La Real to stop rot in San Sebastian?

 | March 04 | 

4 mins read

The Champions League returns to action this week with some compelling ties set to take place, including Real Sociedad's round of 16 second-leg clash with Paris Saint-Germain at the Reale Arena on Tuesday night (KO, 20:00), live on TNT Sports.

PSG were 2-0 winners in the first-leg in Paris last month as Kylian Mbappe and Bradley Barcola each struck in the second-half, and Luis Enrique's side will arrive in San Sebastian on the back of a 20-game unbeaten run. The hosts, meanwhile, have endured a torrid month or so, claiming just a single victory from their last nine matches, but are backed to avoid defeat in our pre-match predictions below.

Real Sociedad vs PSG Betting Tips:

  • Real Sociedad or draw and both teams to score - Yes @ 6/4
  • Team with most booking points - PSG @ 5/4

Team News

Real Sociedad were missing six players for their 3-2 defeat at Sevilla on Saturday and four of them - Carlos Fernandez, Martin Merquelanz, Aihen Munoz and Alvaro Odriozola - are still sidelined for Tuesday's match.

Ander Barrenetxea could return from injury though, as could Aritz Elustondo, who was suspended for the first-leg.

La Real rested several key players on the weekend but the likes of Hamari Traore, Robin Le Normand, Mikel Oyarzabal, Mikel Merino, Brais Mendez and Takefusa Kubo should all return to the starting XI against PSG.

Mbappe was substituted at half-time of PSG's goalless draw with Monaco on Friday but his withdrawal was described as tactical by Luis Enrique, so the 25-year-old will lead the line again.

There will have to be at least one change from the first-leg with Danilo Pereira unable to line up in central defence alongside Marquinhos, who was rested at the Stade Louis II after injury but should be back for Tuesday.

Marco Asensio was taken off before half-time with an injury on Friday and looks set to drop out of the line-up with Barcola taking his place. Luis Enrique must also decide whether to restore the likes of Warren Zaire-Emery, Ousmane Dembele and Fabian Ruiz to his starting line-up.

Match Odds

The odds of 6/4 about the home win imply that Real Sociedad have a 40 per cent chance of winning Tuesday's game inside 90 minutes whilst the visitors are 13/8, or a 38 per cent chance, to emerge victorious again. The draw, which would be enough for PSG to win the tie as a whole, is 13/5.

Both teams to score is 8/11 and it's 11/1 for La Real to match the first-leg scoreline and send the tie into extra time.

Real Sociedad or draw and both teams to score - Yes @ 6/4

PSG managed to restrict their opponents to eight shots - none of which were on target - in the first-leg, but the Spaniards did pose a threat in the first-half.

Despite a poor recent record at home - the hosts haven't won any of their last seven at the Reale Arena - I do expect Real Sociedad to raise their levels for arguably one of the biggest games in their history.

Given PSG hold a two-goal advantage, Real Sociedad are expected to be the team applying most of the pressure, and I do think that will eventually tell.

Luis Enrique's side have kept three clean sheets in their last four but before that had gone five games without one, and they could be without a number of influential defenders again on Tuesday.

That said, I do expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet themselves. Real Sociedad haven't kept a clean sheet in their last six and Mbappe is a hard man to keep quiet for 90-plus minutes.

I can see a draw or the home team winning by a single goal which would, ultimately, hand PSG safe passage into the quarter-finals.

Real Sociedad or draw & BTTS - Yes in Real Sociedad vs PSG at 6-4

Team with most booking points - PSG @ 5/4

If the game goes as I expect, with the hosts applying much of the pressure, PSG could pick up a few bookings. Real Sociedad will want to keep the game flowing, while the visitors will be happy to disrupt it as long as they are winning the tie.

It's actually a meeting between two of the most ill-disciplined sides in the competition - Real Sociedad have committed the most fouls (106) with PSG joint-fifth on 81 - but it is the French outfit who rank higher for yellow cards (18 to Real Sociedad's 16).

Don't be surprised to see the Parisians pick up a card or two in the latter stages, either for time-wasting or for tactical fouls.

Most booking points - PSG in Real Sociedad vs PSG at 5-4

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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