Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction: Back Vini to record as assist on Saturday

The past days haven't been kind for Real Madrid as the reigning Spanish and European Champions conceded late in the City Derby against rivals Atletico to drop points and followed that up with defeat in France midweek.

They will look to get back on track on Saturday evening (20:00) on LaLiga TV and our Spanish football expert thinks that they will do. Check out his preview as well as all of his Real Madrid vs Villarreal Predictions below...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid and Villarreal meet on Saturday in what in recent years has been one of the most entertaining fixtures on the entire La Liga calendar. 

The Yellow Submarine have tended to compete well against Los Blancos, avoiding defeat in four of the last five league meetings. They were really impressive 3-2 winners on this ground in April 2023 while the most recent meeting ended in a thrilling 4-4 draw at the Estadio de la Cerámica in May. 

Alexander Sørloth scored all four Villarreal goals that day. The €32m sale of the Norwegian to Atlético Madrid this summer on the surface was a significant blow to their attack, but the club look to have reinvested wisely, and if anything, are now in a stronger position overall in terms of their varied options up front. 

Ayoze Pérez has been a revelation, scoring six times in seven matches since moving from Real Betis. Even without Pérez and the experienced Gerard Moreno who were both unavailable on Monday night against Las Palmas, Villarreal looked really good in the final third, creating a host of chances and scoring three with recent signings Thierno Barry and Nicolas Pépé both getting on the scoresheet. 

Those two ensure there is plenty of pace in their attack, which suits Marcelino's counter-attacking style of football. That's likely to be the game plan here for Villarreal who moved up to 3rd place as a result of their 3-1 victory last time out. 

Their league record is almost identical to that of Real Madrid this season, with both sides having scored 17 goals in eight matches, although Los Blancos are one point better off and with a significantly better defence. 

Carlo Ancelotti may feel as though that points margin should be greater, given his side looked to be on the brink of Madrid derby victory at the Estadio Metropolitano last Sunday, only for Ángel Correa's 95th strike to deny them the win. 

Their derby exertions, on the back of a busy period for all Spanish clubs, perhaps contributed to some extent to a 1-0 defeat in Lille in the Champions League in midweek, Real Madrid's first defeat in any competition since January. 

Ancelotti started with only one member of his regular front three in that game, and on this occasion, Los Blancos could not recover from a sluggish start to ultimately wear their opponents down, as has tended to be the pattern in many of their matches this term. 

The Italian certainly won't be panicking after a defeat that in isolation does little damage to their hopes of defending their Champions League trophy. However, he might have liked an extra day or two to rest up ahead of a tough league fixture against a side that has regularly caused problems for Real Madrid in recent years. 

For the first time in five years, the Yellow Submarine are not in Europe, so they should be the fresher of the two sides on Saturday. However, they still face the daunting task of trying to topple a star-studded Madrid side that has gone 38 home matches without defeat in all competitions, since that 3-2 defeat to a Samuel Chukwueze inspired Villarreal two seasons ago. 

Team News: 

Thibaut Courtois is the standout absentee for Real Madrid with the Belgian goalkeeper's injury meaning Andriy Lunin will start between the sticks again for the hosts. David Alaba, Dani Ceballos and Brahim Díaz are also missing. 

Having made a quicker than expected recovery, Kylian Mbappé is likely to start having featured off the bench in France in midweek. Rodrygo should also come in which ought to mean a return to a 4-3-3 system. 

Villarreal's impressive start has come despite injury problems and they are expected to be without Willy Kambwala, Denis Suárez, Gerard Moreno, Juan Foyth, Ayoze Pérez and Alfonso Pedraza here. 

We could see a couple of changes from their victory over Las Palmas earlier in the week. In-form Álex Baena looks certain to return on the left flank, while Santi Comesaña is in strong contention for a start in central midfield. 

Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds

Despite an unimpressive recent record against this opposition, Real Madrid start as the 1/4 favourites in the Match Result market. Villarreal are priced at 9/1, while you can back the Draw at 11/2. 

Given the recent history of the fixture and the high-scoring nature of both teams, the expectation is certainly that we will get goals in this game. You can back Both teams to score at 8/13. Over 3.5 goals is priced at 8/11, while you can back Both teams to score 2 or more goals at 100/30, a winning bet in three of the last four meetings in all competitions. 

A repeat of May's 4-4 draw between these teams can be backed at a huge 125/1, although it's perhaps worth noting that none of the goalscorers that day are expected to start this match. 

Vinícius Júnior is expected to take his place on the left flank for Los Blancos once more and he's 9/2 to score first and 1/1 to score anytime. You can also back Mbappé to get on the scoresheet at 8/13 while Jude Bellingham, who is yet to score this season for Real Madrid, is available at 13/8 to break his duck on Saturday. 

From a Villarreal perspective, you can back Nicolas Pépé to score anytime at 3/1. There may be better value in backing Álex Baena 1+ assists at 4/1 though, with the Spaniard having created four goals in his last four La Liga appearances. 

Bet 1 - Both teams to score (90 mins) & Over 1.5 goals (2nd Half) @ 10/11 

These sides are both scoring freely and Villarreal are in some ways set up quite well to defend deep and strike on the break in this fixture, given the pace they have in attack.  

However, their defence remains a major weakness. Only the bottom two have let in more goals in La Liga this term and it's hard to see them holding firm for 90 minutes against a Real Madrid attack that has tended to come on strong after the interval. 

With 83% of the goals in Real Madrid's league matches this term coming after the break, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Both teams to score (90 mins) and Over 1.5 goals (2nd Half) at 10/11 here. 

Bet 2 - Vinícius Júnior 1+ assists @ 23/10 

The introduction of Mbappé, combined with the retirement of Toni Kroos, has shifted the kind of responsibility that lies on the shoulders of Vinícius this season. While he's still offering a goal threat, starting from a wide position and with one of the most clinical strikers in world football to feed, he looks certain to rack up a large number of assists this term. 

Even without reaching anything like his peak level yet, the Brazilian has still managed to record five assists in 10 appearances in all competitions for his club this term. In what's likely to be an open and potentially high-scoring game, I think there's value in backing Vinícius Júnior 1+ assists at 23/10 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...