Real Madrid vs Mallorca Prediction: Los Blancos to book final berth with battling victory

Real Mallorca suffered the embarrassment of a Copa del Rey round of 32 exit to fourth-tier outfit Pontevedra last Friday and head coach Jagoba Arrasate knows his side must raise their level significantly if they are to stand any chance of beating Real Madrid in Thursday's Spanish Supercopa semi-final at the King Abdullah Sports City (19:00).

Below is my Real Madrid vs Mallorca prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this cup clash in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.

Team News

Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr. has been handed a two-game domestic ban by the RFEF for his red card in last Friday's 2-1 La Liga win at Valencia. However, the suspension does not apply to the Spanish Supercopa so we can safely assume that he will start and play the majority, if not all, of Thursday's semi-final.

Other key starters, such as Thibaut Courtois, Antonio Rudiger, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe, none of whom began Monday's 5-0 thrashing of Deportiva Minera in the Copa del Rey, are expected to return to Carlo Ancelotti's lineup.

Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao remain injured while David Alaba, despite being included in the squad, is unlikely to return from an ACL injury until later this month.

Football Odds

Samu Costa has missed Real Mallorca's last three matches but was named in Arrasate's squad and will hope to earn some minutes on Thursday. Defender Antonio Raillo and midfielder Antonio Sanchez will also have to be assessed after working away from the main group in training earlier this week.

The likes of Pablo Maffeo, Sergi Darder, Johan Mojica and Vedat Muriqi are expected to return to Mallorca's starting XI after beginning Monday's Copa del Rey defeat to Pontevedra on the bench.

Real Madrid vs Real Mallorca Odds

Real Madrid won two of their three meetings with Real Mallorca in 2024 and are 1/3 to beat them in their first head-to-head of this calendar year, giving Los Blancos an implied win probability of 75%. Los Bermellones, meanwhile, can be backed at 13/2 (13.3%), with the draw, which landed when these sides last met in August (1-1), priced at 18/5.

There is no extra time in this year's Spanish Supercopa so if the scores are level after regulation time, the tie will be settled by a penalty shootout. Mallorca are 100/30 just to win the tie by any means, while Real Madrid are 1/5.

Unsurprisingly, the reigning European champions dominate the anytime goalscorer market with Mbappe (5/6) and Vinicius Jr. (6/5) leading the way. Muriqi (13/5) and Abdon Prats (3/1) are first up for Mallorca.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Real Madrid & Yes @ 9/5

Real Madrid have won four on the bounce in all competitions and are unbeaten in their last seven games since losing 2-1 at Athletic Club on December 4. However, despite triumphing six times since their San Mames suffering, it's been far from plain sailing for Carlo Ancelotti's side.

The Spanish giants have kept just two clean sheets in their last six matches and the most recent of those was against fourth-tier Deportiva Minera, while the other was in the Fifa Intercontinental Cup final, which they won 3-0, against a tired Pachuca side who had to come through 120+ plus minutes in their semi-final against Al-Ahly three days prior.

Real Madrid shipped multiple goals in back-to-back games against Atalanta (2-3) and Rayo Vallecano (3-3) in the first half of December and ended the year by conceding twice to Sevilla in a 4-2 victory over Los Nervionenses. They then opened up 2025 in inauspicious fashion, conceding in the 27th minute to Valencia striker Hugo Duro, and it wasn't until after Bellingham's saved spot-kick and Vinicius Jr.'s red card that they sprang into action, equalising in the 85th minute through Luka Modric before Bellingham struck the winner in the fifth minute of added time.

Mallorca went a goal behind at home against Real Madrid in August, Rodrygo opening the scoring for the visitors in the 13th minute, but Muriqi cancelled the Brazilian's strike out eight minutes after the interval and Arrasate's side held on for a point. Muriqi's goal, coupled with Real Madrid's recent defensive woes, should give the underdogs confidence that they can hurt their opponents in Jeddah, and at least score.

A rotated Mallorca side couldn't breach Pontevedra's defence on Monday but the 2023/24 Copa del Ray runners-up have scored in five of their last six La Liga games, one of which was against Barcelona, who beat them 5-1 at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix on December 3.

I expect Mallorca to give Real Madrid a good game on Thursday having not lost by more than one goal to Los Blancos since September 2022; however, the firepower available to Ancelotti should prove too much for Arrasate's charges.

Player to Receive a Card - Eduardo Camavinga (RMA) @ 12/5

French midfielder Eduardo Camavinga is by no means a guaranteed starter in Thursday's semi-final given he began Monday's cup tie, which he scored in, and played 63 minutes before being substituted. Federico Valverde also started and scored but was replaced at half-time so we can take from that the Uruguayan, who is one of Real Madrid's most integral cogs, will be in from the off against Mallorca.

I'm less convinced over Camavinga's selection in the starting XI but he still has a good chance as he's only likely to be rivalling Dani Ceballos for a spot with Aurelien Tchouameni set to continue in defence.

Regardless of whether Camavinga gets 60-plus minutes or 30, he still looks a good bet to be carded in Jeddah.

The 22-year-old is yet to be booked in eight La Liga appearances this season but only six of those matches have been as a starter and he's been cautioned twice in the Champions League with the second of those yellows coming as a second-half substitute against Milan. In Europe, Camavinga is averaging 1.5 fouls per game, slightly up on his La Liga statistics (1.2p/g), but in Monday's Copa del Rey win at minnows Minera, the Stade Rennais Academy graduate committed four fouls, managing to escape without a card.

Real Madrid cruised to victory against the fourth-tier side but things should be a lot closer on Thursday and with much more at stake, expect Camavinga to be even more robust in his challenges. Considering his disciplinary record in his first three seasons at the club (11 yellows in 2021/22, 13 in 2022/23, 13 in 2023/24), and foul numbers this term, I think 12/5 is a decent price for Camavinga to be carded in the Spanish Supercopa semi-final.

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