Real Madrid vs Las Palmas Prediction: Back the home side to have plenty of shots

LaLiga TV is the place to be for those looking to watch the current Spanish and European champions as Real Madrid welcome Las Palmas to the Bernabeu from 15:15.

Our Spanish-based football expert Mark Sochon previews the action and picks out his two Best Bets for the game as he gives us his Real Madrid vs Las Palmas Predictions...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid are back at the Santiago Bernabéu on Sunday to play Las Palmas, after a week that has seen them on the right and wrong end of 5-2 scorelines. 

Despite playing on Thursday night in the Copa del Rey, last Sunday's heavy Clásico defeat to Barcelona in the Supercopa is still the talk of the town in the Spanish capital. Between the 22nd and 48th minutes, Barça rattled in five goals to kill the game off and take their season tally to nine goals in their two meetings with Real Madrid. 

It's safe to say that kind of thing does not go down well in Madrid. There were whistles on Thursday at the Bernabéu for a number of players perceived to be letting the side down, including Aurélien Tchouaméni and Lucas Vázquez. 

Defensively there are clear flaws in this Real Madrid side and Florentino Pérez's typical reluctance to spend money in January will be really tested this month, with holes that surely need filling at right-back and centre-back. 

Yet, to the casual observer, some of the criticism still seems very harsh. After all, this is still a Real Madrid side that won La Liga and the Champions League only eight months ago. It's also one that has won six of their last seven matches in all competitions and they head into matchday 20 as the favourites to defend their Spanish title, with a five point advantage on Barcelona, and trailing Atlético by only a point. 

There is little doubt that Los Blancos still have enough raw individual quality to blow most of their domestic rivals away. We saw evidence of that eventually in midweek, with three Extra Time goals, including a brace from Endrick and a brilliant long-range strike from Fede Valverde, sealing a 5-2 win over Celta Vigo. 

With 33 goals in their last 10 matches in all competitions, there is a bit more fluidity to their attacking play than was the case earlier in the campaign, with Kylian Mbappé looking sharper. However, the sense remains that rather than being a great team, this is a side reliant on great individual moments, and it's questionable just how far that can carry them this season. 

On paper, this is one of those games that Los Blancos should win, even if they aren't at their best. Las Palmas are 14th in La Liga and still hovering above the relegation scrap, despite a dramatic upturn in their fortunes since the appointment of Diego Martínez as their new coach in October. 

They'd gone 23 matches without a league win at that point, but Martínez had an immediate impact, with the Canary Islanders winning 3-2 at Valencia in his first game to finally put three points on the board. 

That sparked a stunning run of eight wins from 11 matches in all competitions. The highlight was unquestionably a 2-1 win at Barcelona in La Liga in November, when Las Palmas soaked up considerable pressure, but maintained a threat on the break and scored two really well worked goals to secure a famous victory. 

Sandro Ramírez and Fábio Silva were their scorers that day. Both players have struggled to score goals throughout much of their careers, but Martínez certainly seems to have instilled some belief in the duo who were both integral parts of the Las Palmas revival at the end of 2024. 

The new year has been less kind to Los Amarillos though. They've lost both matches so far in 2025 and they were ones they might have expected to win. A humbling 4-0 defeat at second tier Elche brought their Copa del Rey campaign to an end, while they were beaten 2-1 at home by Getafe in La Liga last weekend, despite a late consolation goal from Adnan Januzaj. 

Team News: 

Real Madrid are missing two players to suspension here, with Vinícius Júnior beginning a two game ban in La Liga following his recent red card at Valencia. Luka Modric is also suspended following his fifth booking of the campaign in that game. 

Eduardo Camavinga has suffered a fresh injury setback, so he rejoins long-term absentees Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal on the sidelines. Valverde, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham, Ferland Mendy and Thibaut Courtois are all expected to return to the starting lineup having been rested in midweek. 

As for Las Palmas, they'll have to cope without their suspended midfielder Dário Essugo.  

José Campaña is expected to be fit for this one though, in a boost to Martínez's options in the centre of the park. 

The visitors are also missing Viti Rozada and former Real Madrid player Marvin Park to injury. Alex Suárez is likely to get the nod at right-back as a result. 

Real Madrid vs Las Palmas Odds

Real Madrid are the 1/7 favourites to make it seven wins out of eight in all competitions. You can back the Draw at 15/2, while Las Palmas are huge outsiders at 16/1. 

With Los Blancos scoring plenty, but looking vulnerable at the back, there's certainly reason to expect goals here. Over 3.5 goals is available at 8/11, while you can back Over 4.5 goals at 7/4. Both teams to score is on offer at 5/6. 

If you're expecting Los Blancos to silence their critics with a dominant display, you can back Real Madrid -2.00 Handicap at 21/20. Meanwhile, Real Madrid and Over 3.5 goals is on offer at 10/11. 

Alternatively, you can back the Canary Islanders to put in another big away performance at one of the big clubs, with Las Palmas or Draw priced at 4/1 in the Double Chance market. A repeat of their 2-1 victory at Barcelona earlier in the campaign, is available at 40/1. 

With no Vinícius, the home team's main goal threat should come from three players. Mbappé is the 5/2 favourite to open the scoring, while he's 8/15 to score anytime. You can also back Bellingham to score anytime at 11/10, while Rodrygo is priced at 23/20 to get on the scoresheet. 

Bet 1 - Real Madrid 22+ shots @ 7/5 

Even during their excellent run at the end of last year, there was a sense that Las Palmas were a bit fortunate to win a number of games. They've tended to drop quite deep on the road and have faced a lot of shots in several of those matches. 

In their victory at Barcelona, they had to survive 27 attempts on goal from the opposition, while they faced 34 shots in their 3-1 win at Rayo Vallecano a few weeks prior to that. Segunda División Elche had 16 in their only away game of 2025 to date, so there's plenty of reason to think their goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen could be in for a very busy afternoon on Sunday. 

I expect Los Blancos to be the dominant force in this game and I'm backing Real Madrid to have 22+ shots at 7/5. 

Bet 2 - Highest scoring half - 2nd Half @ 10/11 

There has been a trend throughout much of this season, with Real Madrid initially struggling to break teams down, before exploiting the spaces that open up against tiring defences after the break. 

We could see something similar happen here, with Las Palmas likely to adopt a counter-attacking approach to this fixture initially, one that has worked pretty well since Martínez took over. 

66% of the goals in Real Madrid's league fixtures this term have come after the interval, while the same is true of 64% of the goals in Las Palmas games. I'm backing that trend to continue here, with the Second Half priced at 10/11 in the Highest Scoring Half market. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...