Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Back Guirassy to hit the back of the net anytime

TNT Sports 2 from 20:00 on Tuesday is where you'll find probably the game of the night in the Champions League as the two sides who met in the final just a few months ago, renew acquaintances in Spain.

Our Spanish based La Liga expert got the assignment for this one as he previews the match and gives us his best Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions...

There’s a repeat of the 2024 UEFA Champions League final on Tuesday as Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund meet again, five months on from their showdown at Wembley.  

The Germans went into that game as huge underdogs, but had the better of long portions of it, before ultimately succumbing to two late goals as Dani Carvajal and Vinícius Júnior struck to seal a record-extending 15th European Cup for Los Blancos.  

The stakes aren’t anywhere near as high this week as the clubs reunite at the Santiago Bernabéu. Both sides should comfortably progress from the new league phase, but there is a degree of pressure on Real Madrid following a rare defeat at Lille on matchday two. 

Not since the second leg of the 2022/23 semi-final against Manchester City, had Real Madrid lost a Champions League game prior to that. It was their first defeat in any competition since January and with potentially tricky away games against Liverpool, Atalanta and surprise package Brest still to come, Carlo Ancelotti’s side could do with putting three points on the board here as they target a top eight finish. 

The defending champions head into this game on the back of a 2-1 win in Vigo in La Liga. A stunning strike from Kylian Mbappé and another goal from Vinícius sealed the three points, but in truth it was quite a disjointed display. 

There were points in the game when it wasn’t even clear what system Real Madrid were playing with Aurélien Tchouaméni dropping in to become a third centre-back at times. Celta got in behind the visiting defence on a number of occasions, only for their finishing to let them down. 

It was a performance that only served to highlight how much of a miss Dani Carvajal may be, with the experienced right-back ruled out for the remainder of the campaign following an ACL injury sustained in the 2-0 win over Villarreal just prior to the international break. 

Ancelotti will know his team needs to iron out those defensive problems in time for this match against a free-scoring Borussia Dortmund side that is well capable of exploiting any gaps that appear. 

The Bundesliga side have rattled in 10 goals in the competition so far and are sitting pretty on top of this 36-team league table after two matches.  

They started out with a 3-0 win away to Club Brugge, with England U21 international Jamie Gittens coming off the bench to score twice in a game that ended up with a one-sided result, having been goalless for 75 minutes. 

By contrast, it took just seven minutes for Dortmund to lead against Celtic on matchday two and Karim Adeyemi’s quick-fire hat-trick ensured they were out of sight by the interval. A final score of 7-1 equalled their biggest ever winning margin in the competition with Serhou Guirassy also scoring twice. 

With Adeyemi currently sidelined through injury, the onus will most likely be on Guirassy to lead the line here as the visitors target revenge following their defeat in London back in early June. 

They are under new management now, with Nuri Şahin, who represented both of these clubs during his playing career, taking charge in the summer. The 36-year-old is clearly intent on playing attack-minded football and there has been no shortage of entertainment in Dortmund matches so far this term. 

While they’ve scored 28 times in 10 competitive outings under Şahin, there have also been some shaky defensive displays and they’ve already lost twice in the Bundesliga, including a 5-1 hammering at the hands of Stuttgart last month. 

Team News: 

There are no fresh injury concerns for Ancelotti with Carvajal, David Alaba and Brahim Díaz the only players currently sidelined, although the latter is nearing fitness again. 

Two changes are expected from Saturday’s trip to Vigo, with Rodrygo and Ferland Mendy expected to rotate in. Fran García and Eduardo Camavinga are the players most likely to make way. 

As for Borussia Dortmund, the big miss is Adeyemi who has scored three times in the Champions League this term, with only Harry Kane bettering that tally in the league phase. 

Gio Reyna, Julien Duranville and Yan Couto are also out for the visitors. Şahin is also sweating over the fitness of Niklas Süle and Pascal Groß, and may place his faith in 20-year-old Gittens to start on the left flank. 

Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Real Madrid are priced at 4/9 to record what would be a fourth straight win over Borussia Dortmund in this competition. You can back the visitors at 5/1, while the Draw is priced at 4/1. 

There have been four or more goals in four of the last five meetings and you back Over 3.5 goals at 1/1 here. Both teams to score is available at 8/15, while you can go with Both teams to score 2 or more goals at 3/1. 

You can back a Home win and Over 2.5 goals at 9/10. Alternatively, Draw or Borussia Dortmund double chance and Over 2.5 goals is priced at 18/5. 

With eight goals in 12 Real Madrid appearances so far, Mbappé is the 3/1 favourite to score first, with the Frenchman also on offer at 8/11 to score anytime. 

The spotlight will also inevitably fall on Jude Bellingham against his old club. The midfielder is yet to net for Los Blancos this term, but he’s priced at 13/5 to score anytime against his former employers. You can also back Bellingham to register 1+ assists at 9/4. 

There’s another young English player impressing for Dortmund these days though and you can back Jamie Gittens to score anytime at 9/2. 

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Bet 1 - Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score @ 3/4 

The way Dortmund have been approaching matches under their new boss, it’s hard to see this being anything other than quite an open game. Even without Adeyemi, they are creating chances and scoring goals, and should pose problems for a Real Madrid defence that looked unconvincing at times at the weekend and has kept just one clean sheet in their last seven matches. 

Fresh from goals in Vigo, Mbappé and Vinícius should both head into this game with confidence though and with Rodrygo also expected to rotate in, the hosts should have more than enough firepower to take advantage of the gaps that Borussia Dortmund are leaving. 

I can see this being a really good watch and I’m using the Bet Builder to back Over 2.5 goals and Both teams to score at 3/4. 

Bet 2 - Serhou Guirassy to score anytime @ 21/10 

There aren’t many players in European football who can match Mbappé’s scoring rate over the past year or so, but Serhou Guirassy is one of the few keeping pace with the Frenchman. 

The Guinean netted 28 times in the Bundesliga last term for Stuttgart at a stunning rate of a goal every 79 minutes. He has trimmed that down to one every 76 minutes in all competitions since moving to Dortmund and the forward heads into this match having scored seven in his last six outings for his new club. 

That’s outstanding form by anyone’s standards and with one or two cracks at the back for Real Madrid, I’m backing Serhou Guirassy to score anytime at 21/10. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights writers on our Football home page...