Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Julian Alvarez is a good price to score

La Liga TV is the TV channel to tune into for the Madrid Derby on Saturday night, as Real host Atletico in what should be a thoroughly entertaining game. Kick-off time is set for 20:00.

Our Madrid-based football expert Mark Sochon is undoubtedly the main for the assignment as he previews the action and picks out his two Best Bets for the game. Check out his Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid Predictions in his full match preview for the La Liga match for us at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

It’s derby weekend in the Spanish capital, and the stakes couldn’t be much higher on Saturday night at the Santiago Bernabéu, with just one point separating Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid at the top of La Liga. 

Los Blancos hold a slender advantage, but it was cut from four points only last weekend, as Carlo Ancelotti’s side slipped to an unexpected 1-0 defeat away to struggling Espanyol. 

They were furious with the refereeing in that game, with the home team’s eventual match-winner Carlos Romero very fortunate to escape without a red card for an earlier challenge on Kylian Mbappé. Real Madrid had a point, although the club’s subsequent attempts to portray themselves as victims of some kind of ongoing conspiracy by LaLiga referees, has been embarrassing. 

Atleti have responded with some humorous social media posts, poking fun at Real Madrid’s alleged attempts to pressurise the match officials heading into this game, adding a little bit more spice to a fixture that was already boiling up to be one of the biggest Madrid derbies in years. 

Carlo Ancelotti has more pressing matters on his plate, as he prepares for a potentially season-defining fortnight, with a trip to Manchester City in the Champions League just 72 hours on from this game. He has a range of defensive worries right now, with fresh injuries adding to the sense that Los Blancos may have made a huge error by not reinforcing their backline in the transfer window. 

Youngsters Raúl Asencio and Jacobo Ramón started at centre-back in the Copa del Rey quarter-final at Leganés on Wednesday. While Real Madrid ultimately won that game 3-2, thanks to a late strike from 20-year-old B-team player Gonzalo García, they did not look convincing at the back, with Jacobo shaky on his full debut. 

Ancelotti rested a number of his regulars at Butarque, and while Real Madrid did manage to record a sixth win in seven competitive matches since their humiliating defeat to Barcelona in the Supercopa in January, a number of doubts remain about the defending Spanish and European champions heading into this crunch derby clash. 

Nine years have passed since Atlético last won at the Bernabéu. Antoine Griezmann was the scorer of the only goal in a 1-0 victory in February 2016, a result that left some Real Madrid fans calling for the resignation of club president Florentino Pérez. 

Los Blancos have won five European Cups since then, with Pérez’s position now as strong as it has ever been, but they’ve only won one of the last six Madrid derbies in the league, with this fixture so often finishing level in recent years. 

That was the case earlier this term, when Ángel Correa scored a 95th goal to salvage a point for Atleti at the Estadio Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s side did not look particularly convincing at that time, but they’ve really come good over the past few months, and look like genuine title candidates as we head towards the business end of the campaign. 

While they may not have many individuals that are on the level of the stars across the city, or over in Barcelona, Atleti have what is surely the strongest squad in Spain. That could be really important as the season wears on, particularly if the three title contenders all go deep in the Champions League. 

The Atlético boss also has a much clearer idea of his best lineup now than was the case back in September when these sides last met. Clément Lenglet and Giuliano Simeone were unused substitutes on that occasion, but have since forced their way into the side and been integral parts of a run that has seen Los Rojiblancos win 19 of their last 21 matches in all competitions. 

Many of those have been tight affairs, with that strong bench frequently needed for fresh legs and decisive late contributions. However, that hasn’t really been the case over the past couple of weeks, with Atleti scoring 11 and conceding just one in their last three fixtures. 

They head into this game in good spirits, after cruising to a 5-0 win over Getafe in the Copa del Rey on Tuesday, with Giuliano Simeone scoring twice. 

Team News: 

Carlo Ancelotti is expected to be missing four players on Saturday night, and they are all defenders. They have got used to getting by without Éder Militão, Dani Carvajal and David Alaba, but Antonio Rüdiger has been the rock that has held an otherwise unconvincing back four together, and his injury could not have come at a worse time. Aurélien Tchouaméni is expected to partner Raúl Asencio in central defence in this game.  

Further up the pitch, there are no selection issues, with Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé all expected to return to the starting lineup, following midweek rests. 

The suspended Robin Le Normand should be the only absentee for the visitors, with José María Giménez set to partner Lenglet in central defence.  

Samuel Lino and Conor Gallagher look to be in a fight for one place on the left of midfield, while Simeone must decide whether to go with the experience of Koke, or talented youngster Pablo Barrios as Rodrigo De Paul’s partner in the centre of the park. Griezmann and Julián Alvarez should continue up top, with Alexander Sørloth likely to feature off the bench. 

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Odds

Despite their considerable selection issues, Real Madrid are the 5/6 favourites heading into the derby. The Draw is available at 11/4, while Atlético Madrid are priced at 16/5 to record their first win on this ground since February 2016. 

Both teams to score is priced at 8/11, a winning bet in each of the last eight meetings in all competitions. You can also back Over 2.5 goals at 4/5, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 2/1. 

Real Madrid will be hoping their attacking stars can shine and find a way through La Liga’s meanest defence. Kylian Mbappé is the 4/1 favourite to score first, while he’s priced at 6/5 to score anytime. Vinícius is on offer at 7/4 to score anytime, while Rodrygo has also been in good form, and he’s priced at 12/5 to get on the scoresheet.  

Meanwhile, if you’re expecting a big game performance from Jude Bellingham, the Englishman is available at 11/4 to score anytime, while he’s priced at 8/11 to have 1+ shots on target. 

Atleti will see cracks in the home defence they can exploit though, and the away team are on offer at 2/1 to score over 1.5 goals. Griezmann is priced at 12/5 to score at the Bernabéu for the first time since 2018. 

Bet 1 - Draw or Atlético Madrid & Over 1.5 goals @ 7/5 

Real Madrid have just about managed to get by, despite some considerable defensive selection problems this season, although their record in the big games is really poor. They’ve taken just one point from three league games against top-four opponents, while Champions League defeats against the likes of Liverpool and Milan, also suggest that the stronger teams can get at them. 

Given the quality and depth they have in other areas, Rüdiger is the player that Ancelotti could least afford to lose heading into the Madrid derby, not to mention the Man City tie. 

As long as Diego Simeone shows a degree of ambition here, the in-form visitors have got a great chance of landing some serious blows on this makeshift home defence. I’m using the Bet Builder to back Draw or Atlético Madrid and Over 1.5 goals at 7/5. 

Bet 2 - Julián Alvarez to score anytime @ 23/10 

Griezmann may be asked to drop deeper at times in this game, which should leave Alvarez as the main goal threat for Los Rojiblancos. He has to fancy his chances of finding space in between, or in behind a relatively untested Real Madrid central defensive pairing. 

Since swapping Manchester for Madrid, the 25-year-old has netted 16 goals in all competitions, and 10 of those have come away from home. His most recent strikes came in the crunch Champions League clash with Bayer Leverkusen, and after a slightly slow start, it feels as though the Argentina international is starting to relish the kind of responsibility he didn’t have in England, where he mostly played second fiddle to Erling Haaland. 

I expect him to get chances in this game given the state Real Madrid are in at the back, and I’m going with Julián Alvarez to score anytime at 23/10.